Air International 2014-01

JANUARY 2014 Vol.86 No.1

MAY 2012 £4.50

I N T E R N A T I O N A L For the best in modern military and commercial aviation

The Aviation World in 2014

A350XWB • Falcon 5X • A320neo • Boeing 737MAX • Embraer E2 Kamov Ka-62 • Embraer KC-390 • F-15SE Silent Eagle Piaggio P1HH Hammerhead • MQ-8C Fire Scout • Bell V-280 Valor

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INTERNATIONAL

FEATURING...F-35 LIGHTNING II • BOEING 777X • A400M

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Produced by Key Publishing and featuring articles written with and by RAF personnel. The Official Annual Review 2014 is a 132-page special magazine that provides behind the scenes insight into the aircraft, equipment and people of one of the world’s premier air forces. HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE: THE DAMBUSTERS PREPARE FOR HERRICK Behind the scenes in 617 Sqn’s anniversary year as the squadron readied for its final Afghanistan deployment

OPERATION NEWCOMBE When the French engaged extremist forces in Mali, the RAF responded with C-17 airlift and Sentinel ISTAR support

CHINOOK 4, 5 AND 6 The upgraded Chinook Mk 4 in service and a look ahead at the step change in capability that the new Mk 6 delivers

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News

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BREAKING NEWS

Eurofighter begins test flights of the Typhoon Tranche 3, Scotland’s postindependence air defence plans released, Korea picks F-35A Lightning II, Mickey Mouse flies with WestJet, the RQ-180 - a new US stealthy ISTAR remotely-piloted vehicle - revealed, Jordanian CN235 gunship flown and Israel hosts Blue Flag exercise at Ovda.

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GENERAL NEWS

Storm Shadow integration on Typhoon begins, final QF-4 Phantom delivered, MQ-9 Reaper selected by the Netherlands, US Air Force’s CRH faces uncertain future, Rooivalk makes its combat debut, Airbus launches A350 Regional, American and US Airways merger completed, and Bombardier gets 86 passengers into the Q400.

s 23 for d 22 and etails.

LEADING NEWS STORIES

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DUBAI – WINDOW ON THE GULF

David C Isby looks behind events at the recent Dubai airshow and the issues driving military and civilian aircraft sales in the Middle East.

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CRUZEIRO DO SUL

CRUZEX is the most important air exercise held in South America and attended by many air forces. Riccardo Niccoli reports.

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Features

FRONT COVER: Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Lightning II is detailed in this month’s issue. Lockheed Martin

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THE AVIATION WORLD IN 2014

Editor Mark Ayton [email protected] Sub Editors Sue Blunt, Carol Randall

Airbus A320neo – Airbus A350XWB – Boeing 737 MAX – Boeing 777X – Dassault Falcon 5X – Embraer E2 – Kamov Ka-62

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MILITARY AIRCRAFT

Airbus Military A400M Atlas – Embraer KC-390 – Boeing F-15SE Silent

News Editor David Willis [email protected] Marketing Assistants Shaun Binnington & Jessica Jagger

Designer Dave Robinson Production Manager Janet Watkins

Commercial Director Ann Saundry

Production Controller Danielle Tempest

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Executive Chairman Richard Cox

Marketing Manager Martin Steele

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108 TECHNOLOGY

AgustaWestland’s Project Zero – Piaggio P1HH HammerHead – XCOR Aerospace Lynx

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Breaking News

Tranche 3 Typhoon Flown

Test pilot for BAE Systems, Nat Makepeace, completed the maiden flight of the first Tranche 3 Eurofighter Typhoon from Warton, Lancashire, on December 2. The aircraft (ZK355, b/n BS116) was assembled to accommodate the new systems to be introduced on the version – including a new active electronicallyscanned array radar and conformal fuel tanks – although most have not been installed in the airframe. The RAF will receive 40 Tranche 3A aircraft, while a further 72 will be built for Germany, Italy and Spain. Meanwhile, on December 4 the Luftwaffe received the 400th Typhoon (31+06, b/n GS082) during a ceremony at EADS Cassidian’s Military Air Systems Centre in Manching, Germany. BAE Systems

SNP Outlines Defence for An Independent Scotland The Scottish National Party (SNP) unveiled its defence plans in the White Paper Scotland’s Future: Your Guide to an Independent Scotland on November 26 in advance of an independence referendum due on September 18, 2014. An annual budget of £2.5 billion would be allocated for defence and security missions by Scotland. The proposed Scottish Defence Force would comprise 15,000 regulars and 5,000 reservists by 2026, rising from 7,500 and 2,000 respectively in 2016. The SNP plans to keep Scotland

within NATO, having dropped its long-standing policy of opposing membership in October 2012. The plans include an air force of 2,000 personnel and 300 reservists, operating aircraft negotiated from its share of the United Kingdom’s resources. A squadron of at least 12 (and up to 16) Eurofighter Typhoons would be based at RAF Lossiemouth, Morayshire, to perform the air policing role. Six Lockheed Martin C-130J Hercules transports would form the core of the tactical airlift capability along

Korea Finally Opts for F-35A The Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II has been selected as the Republic of Korea Air Force’s (RoKAF) new combat aircraft. On November 22 South Korea stated it would purchase 40 F-35As for delivery from 2018, with options on a further 20, confirmation of which is dependent on security in the region and the available budget. The Boeing F-15SE Silent Eagle had been recommended by the Defense Acquisition Program Administration as the winner of the FX-III competition for 60 fighters; it was the only contender available with the allocated budget. However, the F-15SE did not prevail because it was not considered stealthy enough, while the development of fifth generation fighters in China and Japan’s F-35A buy raised fears that the

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RoKAF was falling behind them. F-35As will be purchased through the Foreign Military Sales programme and delivered with the Block 3F (Final) software over four years from 2018. However on November 27 senior government officials called for the deal to be renegotiated, saying it compared unfavourably with that offered to Japan. “The government made the right decision in choosing the F-35A for its stealth capabilities, but compared to Japan, the conditions are strikingly unfair,” claimed Ree In-je, a member of the ruling Saenuri Party. “This is not an issue that can be glossed over,” he continued. “We must try to [buy the F-35] on the condition of technology transfer, on the same terms as Japan, even if that means further negotiations.” Nigel Pittaway

with a squadron of helicopters. Six additional helicopters will be assigned to the land forces. A high priority is given to the acquisition of a maritime patrol aircraft to replace the capability lost when the BAE Systems Nimrod MRA4 was cancelled in 2010. Approximately four would be acquired to enter service in 2021. Within five years of independence Scotland would establish its own air command and control capability. The SNP’s long-standing aim of removing nuclear weapons from

Scotland would be achieved by 2021, with the departure of the Vanguard-class ballistic-missile submarines and their Trident IIs from the HMNB Clyde at Faslane, if the referendum resulted in the dissolution of the union with England. The defence plan still leaves many questions unanswered. No provision has being made by the Ministry of Defence for a ‘yes’ vote in the Scottish independence referendum, and there have been no negotiations for the transfer of hardware.

C295M Deliveries to Egypt Resume

Airbus Military C295M EC-004 (msn S-109) departed San Pablo Airport, Seville in Spain, on December 3 for the Arab Republic of Egypt Air Force as 1187/SU-BSF. Egypt ordered 12 C295Ms in three batches, the latest placed in January 2013 covering six aircraft. Deliveries were suspended by Spain on August 28 because of the high level of violence in Egypt, although periodic reviews of the situation were undertaken (see Egyptian C295 Deliveries on Hold, October 2013, p21). Two further C295Ms in Egyptian colours have recently been noted conducting test flights at San Pablo: msn S-103 on November 25 and S-110 the next day. By then msn S-103 had regained Egyptian camouflage and roundels, having been seen in an all-white scheme with United Nations titles in late September, when it was understood to be destined for Ghana. Antonio Muñiz Zaragüeta

Please send all news correspondence [email protected]

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NEWS BY NUMBERS

S-70IS HANDED OVER TO BRUNEI On December 3 the first two PZL Mielec-built Sikorsky S-70i International Black Hawks were officially handed over to the Royal Brunei Air Force during the Brunei Darussalam International Defence Exhibition at the BRIDEX International Conference Centre at Jerudong. At the same time a further pair were completing acceptance procedures before being taken into service. The initial four S-70is arrived in Brunei on November 27 onboard an Antonov An-124 transport from Sikorsky’s Black Hawk completion centre in West Palm Beach, Florida. Twelve S-70is were ordered in November 2011 (see Black Hawks for Brunei, January 2012, p25) and options placed for an additional ten. All 12 will be delivered by the end of 2014.

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CHINOOKS FOR SOUTH KOREA A Foreign Military Sale notification was passed to US Congress by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency on December 3 covering Boeing CH-47D Chinook transport helicopters for the Republic of Korea. Fourteen CH-47Ds and five spare T55-GA-714A engines, plus communication and navigation avionics, are covered by the $151 million deal. The aircraft are currently operated by the Eighth US Army’s 3-2nd Aviation Regiment (General Support Aviation Battalion), part of the 2nd Combat Aviation Brigade at Desiderio Army Airfield, Camp Humphrey, in South Korea. The unit is due to receive CH-47Fs from January 2014, allowing transfer of the existing inventory to the Republic of Korea Army.

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AIRBUSES FOR KUWAIT Kuwait Airways is to acquire 25 new Airbus airlines and lease a further 12. The carrier stated on December 2 that new aircraft will join its fleet from the second quarter of 2014 to replace 11 of its current 17, which has an average fleet age of 18 years. Although the types to be acquired have not been revealed, during May 2013 Kuwait announced it had signed an initial agreement with Airbus for 10 A350-900s and 15 A320neos.

GOT A NEWS STORY, PHOTO OR FEATURE ? AIR International is keen to hear from readers who have news stories, photos or features of modern civil and military aviation for inclusion in the magazine. Please contact AIR International at the following address [email protected]

Breaking News

WestJet’s Magic Airliner On December 2 WestJet and Walt Disney World unveiled ‘The Magic Plane’. Boeing 737-8CT(WL) C-GWSZ/‘812’ (c/n 37092, ex N1787B) features Disney’s Mickey Mouse, as depicted in the film Fantasia, on the tail and various fireworks along the fuselage on a dark blue background. ‘The Magic Plane’ made its inaugural flight on December 3 from Calgary, Alberta, to Orlando, Florida, and is seen two days later arriving at Toronto Lester B Pearson International, Ontario. The scheme was applied to the airliner over 24 days by 26 people and will be kept for five years. Andrew H Cline

Details of New US Stealthy UAV Emerge Details of a new, large unmanned air vehicle (UAV) for the US Air Force began to appear in early December. Developed by Northrop Grumman, the RQ-180 is an intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft designed to survive operations in hostile airspace. The UAV is equipped with a suite of active and passive electronic reconnaissance sensors. At least one prototype is understood to have flown, possibly from the Nevada Test and Training Range/Groom Lake (Area 51), where a new large hangar was constructed by mid-2010. The

CN235 Light Gunship Flown An initial flight by a CN235M-100 configured as a light gunship was completed by early December. Two CN235s will be modified for Jordan after ATK of Arlington, Virginia, was awarded a contract for the work by the King Abdullah II Design and Development Bureau. They will be equipped with an electro-optical targeting system, laser designator, AN/AAR-47 and AN/ALE-47 self-protection equipment and a synthetic aperture radar. Weapons due to be integrated on the aircraft include AGM-114M/K Hellfire laserguided missiles, 2.75in rockets and a side-mounted M230LF linkfed 30mm chain gun, controlled by the ATK STAR Mission System. A contract to modify the former Ejército del Aire (Spanish Air Force) CN235M-100s was announced in February 2011 (see CN-235 Gunships, April 2011, p33).

Please send all news correspondence [email protected]

RQ-180 is understood to have entered low rate initial production and could become operational by 2015. Northrop Grumman has been working on the RQ-180 as part of the Long Range Strike (LRS) family of systems, which will include a new bomber (LRS-B) and a hypersonic strike weapon. The LRS programme was launched in 2010 following the cancellation of the Next-Generation bomber. The US Air Force plans to buy between 80 and 100 LRSBs at $550 million apiece, not including the engineering and manufacturing development

costs. Additional risk-reduction and study contracts are due to be released in the first quarter of 2014. An initial operational capability is expected around 2025. Boeing and Lockheed Martin announced they had teamed to compete for LRS-B on October 25, but Northrop Grumman declines to say if it would take part. The company’s apparent lack of interest in LRS-B may be because it is fully committed with work on the RQ-180, which is understood to have been selected in preference to designs from Boeing and Lockheed Martin.

Israel Hosts Blue Flag Exercise

The first Israeli Blue Flag exercise was held at Ovda air base between November 24 and 28. Upgraded F-15D Baz 450 of 133 Squadron, equipped with a satellite communication antenna aft of the cockpit, is pictured departing Ovda for a sortie during Blue Flag on November 26. In addition to the host nation’s combat aircraft Greece (F-16 Block 52s of 340 Mira, based at Souda), Italy (Tornados of 155° Gruppo, 50° Stormo from Piacenza, and Istrana-based AMXs of 51° Stormo) and the US Air Force (F-15Es of the 492nd Fighter Squadron, 48th Fighter Wing from RAF Lakenheath, Suffolk) also sent fighters to the exercise. The overseas visitors spent the week before Blue Flag started familiarising themselves with procedures and operations in Israeli airspace. Air-to-air and air-to-surface missions were conducted as part of the training, during which the multinational Blue Force operated against a Red Force lead by Israel’s aggressor unit, 115 Squadron. MSgt Lee Osberry/US Air Force

AI.01.14

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Military

Brazil Looks at Fighting Falcon

Faced with further delays to the long running F-X2 programme, Brazilian officials have visited the United States to negotiate a possible purchase of surplus US Air Force Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcons. Brazilian pilots also took the opportunity to fly the fighter during the delegation’s recent visit to the United States. F-X2 is due to replace the Força Aérea Brasileira’s (FAB, Brazilian Air Force) Dassault Mirage F-2000C/ Bs and Northrop F-5EM/FM Tiger IIs. According to sources within the FAB it is seeking a batch of F-16Cs (probably Block 40 or 42s) still in active service with the US Air Force, rather than examples in storage at Davis-Monthan AFB, Arizona. This would allow quicker deliveries, alleviating the need to remove F-16s from the ‘boneyard’, overhaul, upgrade and return them to airworthy condition before conducting flight tests. The FAB urgently needs a replacement for the F-2000, which was due to be retired at the end of 2013 (see Brazilian F-2000s to Retire, October 2013, p22), and be replaced by the winner of the delayed F-X2. F-X2 contenders comprise the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet, Dassault Rafale and Saab Gripen NG. Any F-16 purchase could be linked to talks by Brazil for three former US Air Force Boeing KC-135 Stratotankers to replace the Boeing KC-137, the last operational example of which was damaged beyond economical repair on May 26, 2013. The flying boom of the KC-135 would allow the tanker to support F-16s, which are equipped with a refuelling receptacle. Santiago Rivas

Danes Training at El Centro In late 2013 the Danske Flyvevåbnet (Royal Danish Air Force) began its first training deployment to the United States. Eskadrille 722 of the Helicopter Wing based at Karup Denmark has sent a detachment to Naval Air Facility (NAF) El Centro in the Imperial Valley of southern California, commanded by Major Erik Frødstrup. Two A gustaWestland AW101 Merlin Mk 512s (M-510 and M-512) are

Duran and David Willis

Dutch US Helicopter Detachment Becomes 302 Squadron During a small ceremony at Robert Gray Army Airfield in Fort Hood, Texas, on November 25, the Joint Netherlands Training Detachment was renamed 302 Squadron. The event was attended by the Dutch Minister of Defence, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, and Koninklijke Luchtmacht (Royal Netherlands Air Force, RNLAF) commander Lt Gen Alexander Schnitger.

Bombardier B415 UD14-04/‘43-34’ (c/n 2090), still wearing its test registration C-GWEQ, arrived at Torrejón AB on November 29. The waterbomber is seen four days later at the air base where it has joined three others serving with Grupo 43.. The aircraft order, placed by the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Environment, was announced on October 17, 2013 (see One Bombardier 415 for Spain, December 2013, p12). Roberto Yáñez

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ranges in California and Arizona. The unit is using the detachment to train in the search and rescue, tactical air transport and special operations roles, before a potential deployment to Afghanistan in July 2014. NAF El Centro has also been used as a base for training by the Army Air Corps and RAF, as well as the US Navy’s Blue Angels flight demonstration squadron. Damon

AgustaWestland AW101 Merlin Mk 512 M-512 fast and low during the recent deployment to NAF El Centro, California. Damon Duran

Fourth Spanish B415 Delivered

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being used at NAF El Centro. The base was selected because of its good weather, and the local environment is similar to that found in Helmand Province in Afghanistan. The Californian climate enables a higher tempo of training to be conducted than would be possible in Denmark, as well as hot-and-high operations, ‘brown-out’ training and the carriage of externally slung cargo. El Centro is also close to live firing

The squadron, which reports to the Dutch Defence Helicopter Command (DHC), operates eight Boeing AH-64D Apaches and three recently delivered CH-47F Chinooks for initial and tactical training. Apache and Chinook pilots, as well as loadmasters for the latter type, go through initial mission qualification training at Fort Hood, following initial training and

type conversion at Fort Rucker, Alabama. No.302 Squadron is also involved in five annual joint air assault training courses for DHC helicopter crews and ground troops of the army’s 11 Air Mobile Brigade, while Apache pilots of 301 Squadron based at Gilze-Rijen complete annual tactical training courses at flight level at Fort Hood.

Kees van der Mark

Rooivalks Make Combat Debut

South African Air Force Denel AH-2A Rooivalk Mk 1F attack helicopters have engaged in their first combat in support of United Nations and government forces in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Three Rooivalks from 16 Squadron at Air Force Base Bloemspruit were painted white and deployed to the DRC at the end of October/early November as part of the aviation unit of the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and its Force Intervention Brigade. They are tasked with bringing the M23 and other rebel groups under control (further to SAAF Rooivalks

Heading for the Congo, December 2013, p37). The aircraft are understood to have arrived in the DRC on November 1 and were given combat clearance on November 4, flying their first ever combat mission that afternoon. Two Rooivalks, operating with a pair of UN Mil Mi-35 Hinds, attacked M23 positions, including bunkers and anti-aircraft artillery sites near the Rwandan border. Firing 38 and 17 rockets apiece, they dispersed the rebels before returning to base. Less than a week later, the M23 rebel movement announced it had ceased fighting and started negotiations with the DRC government. Guy Martin

Please send all news correspondence [email protected]

Military

Raven Retired At a ceremony at Campo de Mayo outside Buenos Aires on November 29 the Comando de Aviación de Ejército (Argentine Army Aviation) retired its last two Hiller UH-12ET Raven training helicopters. They served with the Escuela de Aviación de Ejército (Army Aviation School) and were replaced by five Bell 206B-3 JetRanger IIIs. Four UH-12ETs were received on September 15, 1980, and another four on October 13, 1983. Argentina was the last military operator of the Raven. Santiago Rivas

Typhoon Begins Storm Shadow Integration Test flights to integrate the MBDA Storm Shadow long-range stand-off missile on the Eurofighter Typhoon began in Italy on November 27 (see Typhoon’s Coming of Age, November 2013, p24-33, for more information). The initial sortie was conducted by Alenia Aermacchi using Instrumented Production Aircraft 2 (MMX-614) from Decimomannu in Sardinia and included flutter tests and an assessment of the interface between the aircraft and the weapon. Storm Shadow is due to become operational on the Typhoon from 2015, when Phase 2 Enhancements are integrated with the aircraft. Eurofighter/L Caliaro

Eavesdropping Row Ends Australian and Indonesian Exercise A major bilateral air defence exercise being held in northern Australia by Australian and Indonesian forces has been cancelled. Exercise Elang Ausindo 13 was cut short as part of an escalating row over recent reports that Canberra electronically ‘tapped’ the telephone of Indonesia’s President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in 2009. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation and the Guardian Australia newspaper’s reports were based on information

sourced from leaked US National Security Agency documents. Six Tentara Nasional Indonesia Angkatan Udara (TNI-AU, Indonesian National Defence - Air Force) General Dynamics F-16A/B Fighting Falcons from Skadron Udara 3 at Iswahyudi deployed to Darwin for the exercise, which began on November 18. The fighters were training with Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) McDonnell Douglas F/A-18A/B Hornets of No.75 Squadron at RAAF

Base Tindal, Northern Territory, when the recall was made on November 21. The argument was also expected to postpone delivery of the first exRAAF Lockheed C-130H Hercules to the TNI-AU, but the initial aircraft departed RAAF Base Richmond, New South Wales, for Indonesia on November 28. According to an Australian Department of Defence spokesman speaking the following day, “Defence can confirm the

transfer of the first C-130H aircraft to Indonesia. The aircraft departed Richmond air force base yesterday, staging through Darwin and is now in Indonesia. The programme is continuing as scheduled.” The transport is the first of nine former RAAF C-130Hs for the TNI-AU. Four were originally donated to Indonesia and an additional five later sold to it (see Additional RAAF C-130Hs Sold to Indonesia, September 2013, p24).

Nigel Pittaway

Fifth T-50 Arrives at Zhukovsky Last Phantom Drone Delivered Sukhoi T-50-5 ‘055’ blue arriving at Zhukovsky on November 20, after arriving from Komsomolsk-on-Amur. Sergy Aleksandrov

Sukhoi’s chief pilot, Hero of the Russian Federation Yuriy Vaschuk, delivered the fifth prototype Sukhoi T-50 (T-50-5) to Zhukovsky outside Moscow on November 20. The fighter (‘055’ blue) landed at the test airfield following a ferry flight from the factory at Komsomolskon-Amur in Khabarovsk kray that involved three intermediate stops. It joins the four others with the M M Gromov Flight Research Institute at Zhukovsky. The aircraft is the second prototype to fly from the manufacturer’s facility to Zhukovsky, the first being T-50-4. The three earlier prototypes were transported to Zhukovsky inside Antonov An-

124 Ruslans. T-50-5 is the first to be painted in the current Russian Air Force camouflage scheme. Alexander Davidenko, the chief designer for the United Aircraft Corporation, which builds the T-50, said that the aircraft has been modified as a result of earlier flight tests and is “practically” a service aircraft in its configuration and equipment. It first flew on October 28, 2013 (correcting Five T-50s Flying, December 2013, p13). All five prototypes will participate in the fighter’s state trials, which are scheduled to begin in the first quarter of 2014 and be completed in 2015. Initial production T-50s are due to be delivered in 2016. David C Isby

Please send all news correspondence [email protected]

The US Air Force has taken delivery of the final McDonnell Douglas QF-4 Phantom II converted as a Full-Scale Aerial Target. QF-4 68-0599 was delivered to the 82nd Aerial Target Squadron, 53rd Weapons Evaluation Group, at Tyndall AFB, Florida, on November 19, flown by the BAE Systems’ director of flight operations, Jeff Percy. RF-4C 68-0599 spent more than 20 years in storage at Davis-Monthan AFB, Arizona, before departing on April 17, 2013 for conversion at BAE Systems’ facility at Mojave Air and Space Port, California (see Final Phantom for Drone Programme Departs DavisMonthan, June 2013, p4). It is due to be expended as a target for a fighter. Approximately 60 of the 314 QF-4s delivered to the US Air Force remain in service at Tyndall AFB and Holloman AFB, New Mexico. US Air Force/Senior Airman Christopher Reel

KF-16 Upgrade Progressing The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) notified the US Congress on November 25 of a possible deal via Foreign Military Sales for the Phase 1 upgrade of the Republic of Korea Air Force’s (ROKAF) Lockheed Martin/Korea Aerospace Industries KF-16C/D Block 52s. BAE Systems was selected to upgrade 134 ROKAF F-16C/Ds in August 2012 and the DSCA notification signals a green light for the work to proceed. Phase 1 will furnish detailed design

requirements to include computers, displays, sensors and weapons, as well as software design and development, engineering installation design and the construction of an avionics systems integration facility and test stations. The estimated cost for this is $200 million. Phase 2 will install an active electronically-scanned array radar and updated avionics in the KF-16 and will be covered by a subsequent DCSA notification. Nigel Pittaway

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Military

Uncertain Future for US CRH The US Air Force’s Combat Rescue Helicopter (CRH) programme is facing an uncertain future because of funding difficulties. CRH is intended to replace the service’s aging fleet of Sikorsky HH-60G Pave Hawks and 112 are sought. The only bid submitted to a request for proposals released in October 2012 came from Sikorsky teamed with Lockheed Martin, which offered the CRH-60 based on the UH-60 Black Hawk. The bid was judged to be technically acceptable and a contract, valued at up to

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IL-76S FOR SOUTH AFRICA? South Africa may consider buying three Ilyushin Il-76 transports off the shelf to supplement its ageing Lockheed C-130BZ Hercules transports used to support deployments and peacekeeping operations in Africa. Details of the possible purchase were reported in early November in the South African Beeld newspaper. If approved, finance for the transports would come out of the Strategic Capital Acquisition Master Plan. South Africa has been seeking additional airlift capability since early 2013 to move larger loads than can fit in the hold of the Hercules. The low serviceability of the ageing C-130BZs has also increased the number of charter airlift services to support South Africa’s foreign deployments, with Il-76s frequently being used. If Il-76s are purchased they would become the first Russian aircraft owned by the South African Air Force. David C Isby

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GOLDEN EAGLES FOR BOTSWANA? Botswana is considering a $450 million order for eight Korea Aerospace Industries FA-50 combat aircraft and T-50 trainers, with an option for a further seven. The aircraft would replace the 14 Canadair BF-5A/B

Argentine Coast Guard Beech 350 Delivered

$6.8 billion, could be awarded in the second half of 2014. However, as sequestration makes it difficult for the US Air Force to know if it can fund a programme through successive fiscal years, sources within the service have said a contract will only be signed if the finance is included in the budget. Under current plans, funds for the CRH may not be included in fiscal year 2015, and nor are the funds to extend the service lives of the HH-60G. The CRH programme was established following the cancellation of CSAR-X. David C Isby

The second Beechcraft 350ER Super King Air purchased by the Argentine Prefectura Naval Argentina (Argentine Coast Guard) was delivered after being equipped as a maritime patrol aircraft by Aerodata at Braunschweig in Germany. The aircraft (D-CPNA c/n FL-795, ex N8113Z) visited Natal Airport in Brazil on November 18 during its ferry flight from Europe to Argentina. It will become PA-26 upon entering service and operate alongside a CASA C212-300PM. The first Beech 350ER (PA-25, c/n FL-792, ex N8042R) was delivered in July 2012, configured for the utility transport role. Santiago Rivas and Ricardo Zarapa via Aparecido Camazano Alamino

NEWS BY NUMBERS

Freedom Fighters that have been grounded since at least late 2011 by a lack of serviceable ejector seats. A military delegation from South Korea visited Botswana between November 23 and 28 to discuss the deal. David C Isby

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ADDITIONAL A-37BS FOR EL SALVADOR The Fuérza Aérea Salvadoreña (Salvadoran Air Force) has signed a purchase agreement for ten Cessna A-37B Dragonflies retired by the Fuerza Aérea de Chile (Chilean Air Force) to reinforce its small combat fleet. The deal is worth $8.6 million. The aircraft are expected to arrive in El Salvador during March 2014 and will boost the Dragonfly force, which currently comprises only three operational aircraft based at Comalpa International Airport. Santiago Rivas

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UH-60MS FOR AUSTRIA Austria has requested three Sikorsky UH-60M Black Hawks via a Foreign Military Sale (FMS) programme. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency responsible for FMS projects notified the US Congress of the $127 million deal on December 5. In addition to the helicopters the deal covers a spare

T700-GE-701D engine, AN/ AVS-9 night-vision goggles, secure communications and other equipment and services. Austria currently operates nine S-70A-42 Black Hawks that were delivered from September 2012.

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EC225S SOUGHT BY ARGENTINE COAST GUARD The Servicio de Aviación de Prefectura Naval Argentina (Argentine Coast Guard Aviation Service) is negotiating the purchase of two Eurocopter EC225 Super Pumas, with an option for a third. They are due to replace two Aérospatiale SA-330L Pumas (PA-11 and PA-13). Negotiations are due to be completed soon so that delivery can take place in 2014 or 2015. Santiago Rivas

3

PRAETORIANS FOR ITALY During 2016 three Alenia C-27J Spartans operated by the Aeronautica Militare (Italian Air Force) will be modified to the MC-27J Praetorian configuration, with palletised roll-on/roll-off command and control, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance equipment, an ATK GAU-23 30mm cannon and mission control systems. The aircraft will support the Comando Operativo Forze Speciali (Italian Special Forces Command). Three additional aircraft will be modified

Reaper Chosen for the RNLAF The Dutch Ministry of Defence (MoD) has selected the General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper for the Koninklijke Luchtmacht (Royal Netherlands Air Force, RNLAF). The MoD informed Parliament on November 21 that the MQ-9 was its choice for the RNLAF’s requirement for a medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The MoD intends to acquire one system – comprising four MQ9B air vehicles and ground stations

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for flight control – in the beginning of 2015, with an initial operational capability set for late 2016 and full operational capability a year later. The MQ-9s are expected to initially operate in the United States for training, certification and to enable the pilots to gain experience, but they will eventually be based at Leeuwarden AB. Although unconfirmed, the unit most likely to be assigned the MQ-9s is 306 Squadron, which operated in the reconnaissance role

between 1953 and 2001, and more recently acted as an F-16 training unit in the Netherlands and the United States, before being disbanded in December 2010. The Netherlands does not intend to use the UAV as a weapon platform in the near future. Current plans will see them equipped with a long-range ground surveillance radar and equipment to intercept radio and radar signals, although integration of this equipment is still

to accommodate the new systems, although not fitted with them. The conversions are part of an agreement signed on November 18 between Alenia Aermacchi (partnered with ATK on the MC-27J) and the Italian Air Force. The deal covers a two-phase programme for the development, testing, certification and industrialisation of the Praetorian and creation of logistical support. During phase one the Italian Air Force will receive a prototype MC-27J Praetorian in spring 2014 to allow operational trials to be conducted. Industrialisation of the aircraft’s configuration and support infrastructure is covered by phase two.

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DA40S FOR VENEZUELA The commander of the Aviación Militar Nacional Bolivariana (Venezuelan Military Aviation), Major General Giuseppe Ángelo Yoffreda Yorio, recently revealed the air force will purchase 36 Diamond DA40 Stars as basic trainers. The aircraft will be used to train pilots for the air force and other Venezuelan air arms at the joint training centre under construction at Morichal in the state of Monagas. They will replace the 12 SIAI-Marchetti SF260EUs operated since October 2000. At least ten Enstrom 480Bs will also be acquired for the new flight academy while Venezuela is also planning to acquire a further batch of nine Hongdu K-8W Karakorums. The additional K-8Ws will join the 15 survivors of the 18 delivered. Santiago Rivas

subject to a feasibility study. The Dutch MoD is actively seeking collaboration with other nations operating – or planning to fly – MQ9s, in particular Germany and France. Other, short-range UAV systems currently used by Dutch forces are the AeroVironment MQ-11B Raven and Boeing Insitu ScanEagle, both of which are assigned to the Royal Netherlands Army’s 107 Aerial Systems Battery within Joint ISTAR Command. Kees van der Mark

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Military

Peru Selects Spartan Two Alenia C-27J Spartan tactical transports will be acquired for the Fuerza Aérea del Perú (Peruvian Air Force). Finmeccanica announced on November 25 that a contract would be signed as soon as ‘administrative procedures’ were complete. The Peruvian ministry of defence revealed four days later that the cost of the procurement was approximately $122 million and the aircraft will be delivered in April 2015. Ground support equipment, training, kits for search and rescue and medical evacuation/air ambulance, logistical support for two years and 100% offsets are included in the deal, as well as the two aircraft. Peru began evaluating new transports to replace its Antonov An-32Bs in March 2010, seeking an aircraft with better performance at high altitudes in the Andes and in hot, jungle environments. Consideration was given to the Airbus Military C295 and An-32RE in addition to the C-27J, and both western types were demonstrated in Peru. The project was approved by the Peruvian Operational Technical Study Committee on August 21, 2013, and the results were published on October 14. All three competitors were invited to submit an offer for the requirement, although Antonov declined.

Boeing Reveals MSA Details Further details of Boeing’s Maritime Surveillance Aircraft (MSA) were revealed at the Dubai air show on November 17. MSA will use the airframe of the Bombardier Challenger 605 business aircraft, with on-board mission systems integration by Field Aviation of Toronto, Canada. An open-architecture sensor suite will be installed, including a Seaspray 7000 advanced electronically scanned array radar and a FLIR Systems 380HD electro-optical sensor turret. The mission systems will be based on those developed for the Boeing P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft. Boeing revealed it was working on the MSA in July 2013 at the Farnborough air show (see Boeing Announces MSA, September 2012, p17). It will be marketed as a lowcost supplement to the P-8A, as well as to customers requiring a smaller platform for maritime surveillance rather than the more comprehensive maritime patrol role. A Challenger 604 owned by Boeing is currently being modified by Field Aviation for use as a demonstrator and will fly in 2014. David C Isby

RAF Begins Training on Upgraded Puma

Flight training by crews based at RAF Benson, Oxfordshire, on the Puma Mk 2 began in late November, including operations from the Stanford Training Area in Norfolk. Personnel from both Nos. 33 and 230 Squadrons have begun the process of converting to the upgraded tactical transport helicopter, which has new avionics and more powerful engines than the Puma HC1. Seven of the 24 Pumas due to be modernised have been redelivered to the RAF and all are due to be returned to service by 2015. Rick Ingham

Lift-off for UK Rotary-Wing Unmanned Air System Work is continuing on the UK Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) Tactical Maritime Unmanned Air System (TMUAS). The project was launched in August when AgustaWestland was awarded a £2.3 million contract for a RotaryWing Unmanned Air System (RWUAS) Concept Capability Demonstrator (CCD) programme. TMUAS will be a system of systems to operate from a Type 26 Global Combat Ship with a rotarywing option to be defined by 2015. The RWUAS CCD will be used to develop operational concepts, the impact of training and support for TMUAS, its integration with ship safety management and embarked aviation assets including the AgustaWestland Wildcat and Merlin helicopters. The air vehicle selected by AgustaWestland as its CCD is the PZL-Swidnik Solo, the rotorcraft unmanned air system/optionally piloted helicopter (RUAS/OPH) variant of the SW-4, which will be used for shipboard launch and recovery demonstrations from a Royal Navy Type 23 frigate during 2014. The Solo RUAS/OPH is European Aviation Safety Agency certified and will be flown in a manned configuration with a safety pilot during the CCD phase when required. The helicopter will serve only as a concept for large and small

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AgustaWestland’s projected Fire Scout-class Tactical Maritime Unmanned Air System concept. AgustaWestland

maritime unmanned air system operations, to define longterm needs and demonstrate operational requirements, including its ability to launch and recover in Sea State 6 without search and rescue cover available. The Solo’s skid landing gear is not ideal for the latter task, and the sea state level may be lowered. The CCD Solo will be equipped with Selex ES PicoSAR radar, Selex VigilX imaging system and a DRS Technologies electro-optical/ infrared turret. Other members of the RWUAS team include Atlas and Thales, providing mine counter-measures

and intelligence, surveillance, targeting and reconnaissance, respectively, as part of the CCD phase that will also include subsystems, simulation and synthetic environment trials. The cost of the Solo demonstrator will be reduced by using the AgustaWestland Lynx Wildcat helicopter’s ‘plug and play’ platforms and open architecture systems. This was one of the factors in the company winning the bid against Boeing with its H-6 Little Bird, BAE System’s Schiebel Camcopter, Northrop Grumman’s Fire Scout and QinetiQ’s Saab Skeldar. David Oliver

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Middle East...Dubai Airshow 2013

Window on t Dubai 2013 David C Isby looks behind the events at the recent airshow in Dubai and the issues driving military and civilian aircraft sales in the Middle East

T

he international airshow held in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in November has been expanding from a regional to a global focus, with the numbers of exhibitors, attendees and sales announced climbing over the years. But these trends have to be viewed alongside the fact that, while the site of the airshow will be secure, and its commercial air services and infrastructure are strong and growing, the region it’s in is on the brink of conflict. Conflict has the potential to ruin much that has been painstakingly built for decades. The vulnerability of authoritarian regimes to internal unrest has been repeatedly demonstrated and those still in power have responded with internal crackdowns. A rising sectarian tide pits Sunni against Shia Muslims. Iraq, Bahrain, and Lebanon could all slide back into violence. Iran, despite recent diplomatic openings,

has long been committed to nuclear and ballistic missile programmes plus support of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria and disaffected populations throughout the Gulf.

Relationships on Display Those that can afford it – especially members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – are looking to bolster their armaments. Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Yemen and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) are among the countries whose military aircraft have flown combat missions lately when, as recently as 2010, they flew only for training and exercises. The UAE and Qatar, by sending fighters over Libya in 2011, demonstrated, as the KSA and Kuwait did in the 1991 Gulf War, that they could play in the first division of coalition air operations. The decline in defence spending in the US and Europe also makes the Middle East vital for exporters. Military aircraft are increasingly important in the beleaguered region. They symbolise security relationships with the nations that built them.

Among the various United Arab Emirates Air Force and Air Defence (UAEAF&AD) aircraft on display at the Dubai Air Show was Pilatus PC-21 947 (c/n 141). An order for 25 aircraft for the UAEAF&AD was announced on November 17, 2009. The first example flew at Stans, Switzerland, on November 22, 2010. Deliveries commenced in the first quarter of 2011 and the last nine arrived in the UAE 12 months later. The aircraft are assigned to the Khalifa bin Zayed Air College, at Al Ain and flown by 4 Squadron. Alan Warnes

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Sales in the region are vital not only to keep its domestic industry viable but to ensure there will be aircraft suitable for coalition operations against a future threat; this means training, participation in exercises and a commitment to maintaining readiness. At stake are more than money or jobs, but also foreign policy leverage and relationships at a perilous time for the region. The airshow was an opportunity for competitors to demonstrate their aircraft and reinforce relationships, but this can be problematic at a time when security relationships with extraregional powers, especially the US, are not popular within large sections of the population, however much their leaderships may rely on them. For Britain, relationship-building has included the RAF’s large-scale exercises with the UAE and KSA. The Royal Navy deployed two of its remaining ‘big deck’ warships, HMS Illustrious and HMS Bulwark, and their helicopters for Exercise Red Alligator in the Gulf in September followed by Exercise Sea Khanjar in October. Britain may upgrade its existing presence at Al Minhad AB in the UAE to a permanent base. RAF aircraft also operate from Oman’s new Al Musannah AB. Meanwhile France has already established a presence at Al Dhafra AB near Abu Dhabi, operating Dassault Rafale fighter detachments. The US military presence has left KSA but remains strong throughout the Gulf, and has recently included deployments of Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptors and McDonnell Douglas F-15C Eagle fighters in the air-to-air role. America has deployed forces and offered to sell systems for roles that few other nations can match, especially missile defence. Many countries in the region are now buying their own, but it will be years before they become operational. But the relationship-building is not limited to those countries likely

to be able to deploy warships and aircraft in the event of a crisis, as demonstrated by King Hamad bin Issa al Khalifah of Bahrain’s recent visit to China and the Hellenic defence minister Dimitris Avramopoulos’ September 26 statement about the importance of co-operation between Greek and Qatari air forces. To understand the importance of the presence (or absence) of an aircraft at the Dubai airshow, ask yourself what relationships would a sale strengthen (or undercut)?

Fighters Eurofighter’s Typhoon, Dassault’s Rafale and Boeing’s latest F-15E Eagle and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet versions, with the Saab Gripen NG as an outside contender, are engaged in multiple battles for sales in the region. The KSA has committed to make the Typhoon and F-15SA its frontline fighters into the 2030s. The 60-aircraft UAE fighter competition is now the largest in the region, if not the world. Other fighter procurements – for Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait – also prompted companies to display their wares at the show. In the long-running UAE fighter competition the Rafale had been considered the front-runner in the past, but the field is now seen as more open, with the Typhoon as favourite, as demonstrated when the UAE Air Force held extensive talks with an industry and service delegation in early July. In response, French defence minister Jean-Yves Le Drian pressed the case for the Rafale during his July 6-8 visit to the UAE. The UAE wants to retain a large proportion of the industrial participation and offsets, research and development and training associated with any new fighters. Qatar is looking to procure 24 to 40 fighters to replace 12 Mirage 2000s. For Bahrain, 12 Typhoons are favoured to replace eight Northrop

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Middle East...Dubai Airshow 2013

n the Gulf 3 F-5E Tiger IIs. Kuwait is looking at a range of options to replace its 39 McDonnell Douglas F/A-18C/D Hornets. While the F/A-18E/F is seen as a front-runner, other competitors have been evaluated. Despite the multiple requirements, no announcements for fighter orders were made at the 2013 show.

Force Multipliers The air arms in the region have been investing both in indigenous intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities and in the training and connectivity that enable them to work as part of a coalition, as shown in the 2011 air campaign over Libya. The UAE’s commitment to invest in ISR was seen earlier in 2013 with a 722 million dirham ($196.57 million) contract to purchase an unspecified number of General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Predator XP unmanned air vehicles (the export version of the original MQ-1 Predator), the first export of the type to the Gulf. The US had previously rebuffed attempts by Saudi Arabia and other potential customers in the region to buy Predators. An increasing number of producers were marketing their UAVs at the show, including the KSA, Pakistan, Turkey and the UAE. More countries in the region, seeing the use of UAVs based there by the US and other regional powers, have come to believe they need them too. Adcom unveiled a mock-up of the Global Yabhon high-altitude long-endurance UAV at the show. A prototype is due to fly within six months and development is being supported by an undisclosed launch customer. It has an endurance of 40 hours and can be powered by two small turbofans or reciprocating engines. The most significant ISR issue in the region is the UAE’s competition

Emirates’ latest A380 A6-EEO with the UAE’s Al Fursan aerobatic team at the Dubai Air Show. Felix Gottwald/AirTeamImages

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Middle East...Dubai Airshow 2013

Abu Dhabi-based Adcom Systems displayed a mock-up of its twin turbofanpowered Global Yabhon unmanned air vehicle at the Dubai Air Show. The air vehicle has two sets of wings each spanning over 85ft (26m) and no less than 18 hard points. The mock-up was surrounded by a variety of weapons including cruise missiles and torpedoes.  Adcom’s Professor Eng George Wolf, confirmed that a prototype is expected to fly within four months and that the first delivery to an unspecified launch customer would take place within ten months. Alan Warnes

for a new radar-equipped airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft. A decision has been reported as imminent, although no announcement was made at the show. The contenders are the Northrop Grumman E-2D Hawkeye and the Boeing 737-based AEW&C, with the Swedish Saab 340 viewed as an outside contender. Other likely procurement programmes involve manned and unmanned ISR aircraft that can be integrated with the electronic border security systems being installed or considered throughout the region.

Helicopters and Ospreys Qatar’s order for Boeing CH-147F Chinooks – the long-range version of the CH-47F designed for the Royal Canadian Air Force – and the UAE’s interest in becoming the second export customer, after Israel, for a

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squadron-sized force of the CV-22 version of the Bell-Boeing Osprey tiltrotor, both demonstrate interest in acquiring a capability to operate across the Gulf. These procurements follow substantial investment by the UAE in building up its special forces. One of the few Arab combat forces committed to operations as part of the coalition war effort in Afghanistan, UAE special forces were trained in the direct action mission by the Republic of Korea. Such UAE units are trained to take out high-value targets throughout Iran, using the tactics they learnt from the Koreans about how to overcome hardened and deeply buried objectives defended by fanatical opponents. Combining these forces with long-range helicopters or Ospreys as a way to strike at Iran’s missile forces would create a powerful capability. Ground forces developments, while nominally

United Arab Emirates Air Force and Air Defence (UAEAF&AD) Air Tractor AT802U border patrol aircraft, serial 2202, made the type’s public debut at this year’s Dubai Air Show. The aircraft, one of 24 delivered to the UAEAF&AD over the last three years, is used in the counter-insurgency role by the Joint Aviation Command’s Group 18 based at Falaj Hazza Camp in Al Ain. Originally conceived as a crop-spraying aircraft, this military variant has a reinforced wing spar to enable carriage of weapons on six under wing hard points. Weapons options include AGM-114 Hellfire missiles, GBU-12 laser-guided bombs, 500lb (227kg) Mk82 bombs, DAGR laser-guided rockets, M260 seven-round rocket launchers and GAU-19/A three-barrel 12.7mm gun pods. A centre line station is normally used for the carriage of sensors. This example is fitted with an EO/IR imager and laser designator turret – probably a BRITE Star II by FLIR Systems. Six aircraft are believed to have subsequently been passed on to Jordan’s Special Operation Command in recent months. Alan Warnes

outside the scope of the airshow, had a direct impact on the competitions and requirements that shaped what was displayed at Dubai.

Commercial Aviation At the same time as the security situation has worsened, the region’s commercial aviation has expanded. Investment and geography have made it a crossroads between Europe, Africa and Asia. Airlines based in the region have emerged as first-rank intercontinental carriers. Commercial aviation is estimated to have contributed $130 billion to the economies of the region last year Investment in commercial aviation is a high-profile example of a strategy to make the Gulf a part of the global economy that does not rely on oil reserves. Dubai International is projected to become the world’s busiest airport by 2015. In 2017,

Abu Dhabi’s new terminal will open, with an annual capacity of 30 million passengers. In Qatar, Doha International Airport will expand to an annual capacity of 50 million passengers. By 2020 GCC airports will handle 250 million passengers annually. The International Civil Aviation Organisation projects regional traffic growth at above 5% up to 2030. The importance of the region to the world’s commercial aircraft producers is illustrated by the fact that both of the new airliners flown this year – the Boeing 787-9 and Bombardier CSeries – have their launch customers there. Boeing took the opportunity to launch the 777X at the first day of the show with 259 commitments, of which all but 34 (for Lufthansa) came from Emirates and Qatar Airways. The Airbus A380 also illustrates the importance of the region as a market,

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Middle East...Dubai Airshow 2013

UAE Navy AS565SB Panther, serial number 197, armed with four dummy radarguided AS-15TT anti-shipping missiles formed part of the static display at this year’s Dubai Air Show. This is the first AS565 to be returned to the service following overhaul and modification by Abu Dhabi based AMMROC (Advanced Military Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul Centre) and Eurocopter. Alan Warnes

with 90 of those on order going to Emirates; the carrier added a further 50 to that total during the airshow.

Technology and Capabilities While it may lack the drama of combat aircraft or large airliner orders, the show also demonstrated the maturing of the UAE’s policy to invest in shared technologies aimed at benefiting industry, research and development, and supporting capabilities. The UAE is becoming not just a purchaser of aircraft and weapons designed and developed elsewhere, but a partner in their development, able to shape their specifications and performance. The airshow showcased the emerging fabrication and research capabilities of the region and signalled their readiness to participate in the global market.

As part of the effort to market the Typhoon, the UK said it was ready to buy from the UAE and has offered cooperation in helping to produce enditems and components that will meet NATO and European Union standards and in organising joint ventures with British industry. The UAE’s Tawazun already supplies structural elements for the Typhoon. Russia has acquired Adcom Systems United Yabhon 40 Block 5 UAVs designed and built in the UAE. Abu Dhabi’s ADASI has signed a teaming agreement with Boeing for UAV development and marketing. The KSA aerospace industry, honed during its work on the Typhoon and F-15SA, also marketed itself at the show. The tense security situation existing outside a growing commercial core also applies to the region’s industries. Strata’s UAE-produced components are already flying in both Boeing

A surprise exhibit in the static park at the Dubai Air Show was a United Arab Emirates Air Force and Air Defence (UAEAF&AD) Cessna 208B Grand Caravan, serial 2257, seen for the first time armed with AGM-114M/K Hellfire air-tosurface missiles.  The aircraft is operated by the UAEAF&AD’s Joint Aviation Command and based at Falaj Hazza Camp in Al Ain, along with the unit’s AT-802U border patrol aircraft.  Sierra Nevada Corporation upgraded the UAEAF&AD Caravans by integrating the FLIR Systems BRITE Star 380HD EO/ IR sensor and the AGM-114 Hellfire. Alan Warnes 

and Airbus airliners. Some airliner procurements are already being financed from within the region. Etihad this year took delivery of two 777s financed by UAE banks, the first since 2008. In September, Tamweel Aviation Finance was set up in Dubai, with co-operation from Airbus and the Development Bank of Japan. The need for aircraft financing is projected to increase some 5% to 10% annually, but greater regulation and shrinking investments may make this critical to future commercial aviation growth. With an estimated $400 billion expected to be invested in aviation in the region in the near future, the financial side will be increasingly important. It appears likely the region will both grow and arm unless things start to rapidly fall apart. The UAE has also invested in capabilities such as training, where it is already bringing in

customers from across the world. Emirates-CAE trains some 10,000 pilots and technicians annually in Dubai. Simulator training will be expanded at a new facility in Dubai’s Silicon Oasis development, scheduled to open later this year. The 2013 Dubai Airshow demonstrated the tremendous progress in the region, despite the potential for disaster from external conflicts or internal upheavals. The UAE and its neighbours demonstrate they are not just buyers, but major participants in the world of both military and commercial aviation. Looking beyond the headline competitions to the relationships that shape them is critical to understanding what will happen in Dubai in the future. Alan Warnes

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AI.01.14

13

NEWS REPORT

Cruzeiro CRUZEX, the most important air exercise held in South America, is attended by many air forces with a wide range of aircraft. Riccardo Niccoli reports

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he first CRUZEX, the shortened name for Exercise Cruzeiro do Sul, was staged by the Força Aérea Brasileira (FAB, or Brazilian Air Force) in 2002, and since 2008 has been run from Base Aérea de Natal, in the state of Rio

Grande do Norte on Brazil’s north-east coast. Until CRUZEX 2010 the event was intended to train aircrew, and command and control personnel. Two years later, redesignated CRUZEX C2 (command and control), its objective was to train command and control personnel working in a command post. This year’s event, titled CRUZEX FLIGHT, was designed primarily to train aircrew in a wide range of air operations,

many based on C2 missions like those staged the previous year.

Objectives Preparations for CRUZEX 2013 started 15 months before the exercise started with the help of the Grupo de Instruçao Tatica Especializada (GITE or specialised tactical training group) based at Natal, the unit dedicated to study and develop air combat

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NEWS REPORT

ro do Sul CRUZEX 2013 was the first in the series to feature the newly-modernised A-1M AMX, introduced into Brazilian Air Force service in September. Dennis Vink

operations and tactics for the FAB. This year’s CRUZEX set out to train: • combat units to fulfil offensive, defensive and support missions, optimising the use of airborne detection systems • personnel to operate with other air arms in joint missions • aircrews, operators and air traffic controllers in a combat environment • participating units in combat search and

rescue operations • for increased interoperability between participating forces

Nations, Numbers and Missions Eight air forces – from Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay, the United States and Venezuela – took part with most of the participating aircraft based at Natal.

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Air-refuelling and airborne early warning aircraft operated from Recife. About 90 aircraft and helicopters and more than 3,000 personnel were deployed to the two air bases, but four Argentine Air Force A-4AR Fightinghawks and one KC-130H pulled out. They were replaced by four FAB F-5EMs. The first units arrived on October 31 and the flying phase ran from November 4 to 15, with 1,240 hours logged.

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NEWS REPORT Particular attention was paid to minimise the effect of multiple military operations on the city of Natal – with safety rules for minimum flight altitudes, standard procedures for overflying urban areas and strict separation from civil air traffic. A unit called CINDACTA III (3rd Integrated Centre for Air Defence and Air Traffic Control) at Recife provided an air traffic control service for the exercise. Each day of CRUZEX 2013 involved a main mission in the morning (using a total force of about 50 to 60 aircraft) followed by a smaller sortie in the afternoon. Missions were planned in accordance with an ATO (air tasking order) issued 24 hours in advance, and were dedicated to specific aspects of air combat operations: • Defensive counter air (DCA) • Offensive counter air (OCA – with escort and air interdiction) • Anti-surface air operations (with close air support, attack, strike co-ordination and reconnaissance missions) • Combat support (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, CSAR, electronic warfare, air-to-air refuelling and tactical airlift) Missions were flown over sparsely populated regions in the states of Rio Grande do Norte, Cearà, Paraiba and Pernambuco and over the Atlantic Ocean. No live weapons were used.

New at Cruzex New to this CRUZEX were the introduction of special operations forces and the airdrop of special combat teams from the Brazilian Air Force (known as para-SAR teams, dedicated to CSAR and special operations), Canada and the US. Another first was participation by Brazil’s new Mil Mi-35 Hind (designated AH-2) from 2°/8° Grupo de Aviación (GAv), based at Manaus and dedicated to CSAR, attack and special operations missions. A flight data collection system used for debriefing also made its CRUZEX debut. Unlike air combat manoeuvring instrumentation systems which use pods fitted to each aircraft for transmitting data to the ground station, the Brazilian system uses a small GPS device carried by each pilot. Data gathered was used by a shot validation cell to verify the result of all missile firings, particularly those from beyond visual range. Use of the system in CRUZEX was a main objective for the Brazilian Air Force, the validation cell being staffed by fighter pilots assigned to CINDACTA III at Recife. Data from each aircraft’s GPS and avionics systems was used to create a debriefing video, with full playback functionality, of all phases of each mission. CRUZEX 2013 was also the first in the series to feature the newly-modernised A-1M AMX, introduced into Brazilian Air Force service in September.

Blue and Red CRUZEX, like many major NATO air exercises, is run with a friendly Blue air force and an enemy Red air force. The host nation provided most of Blue air with a mix of F-2000s (Mirage 2000s), A-1s, RA-1As, F-5EMs and A-29B Super Tucanos, all based at Natal. The rest of the force came from the seven other air forces,

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CRUZEX 2013 PARTICIPANTS Aircraft

Unit

Number

NEWS REPORT Base

Força Aérea Brasileira (Brazilian Air Force) F-2000B/F-2000C

1° GDA

5

Natal

F-5EM/F-5FM

1°/14°, 1°/4° GAv

14

Natal

A-1A/A-1B/A-1M/RA-1A

1°/10°, 3°/10°

10

Natal

A-29A/A-29B

3°/3° GAv

6

Natal

KC-130H

1°/1° GT

2

Recife

C-130H/C-130M

1°/1° GT

2

Natal

C-105

1°/9° GAv

2

Natal

SC-105

2°/10° GAv

1

Recife

E-99

2°/6° GAv

2

Recife

AH-2

2°/8° GAv

3

Natal

H-1H

2°/8° GAv

1

Natal

H-34

3°/8° GAv

1

Caico

H-60L

7°/8° GAv

3

Natal

436th Transport Squadron

2

Natal

Royal Canadian Air Force CC-130J

Fuerza Aérea de Chile (Chilean Air Force) F-16AM/F-16BM

GA.7, GA.8

6

Natal

KC-135E

GA.10

1

Recife

Fuerza Aérea Colombiana (Colombian Air Force) OA-37B

EC.311

6

Natal

KC-767

ET.811

1

Recife

3

Natal

Fuerza Aérea Ecuatoriana (Ecuadorean Air Force) A-29B

EC.2313

Fuerza Aérea Uruguaya (Uruguayan Air Force) A-37B/OA-37B

EA.2C

3

Natal

IA-58

EA.1A

3

Natal

US Air Force F-16C

121st Fighter Squadron

6

Natal

KC-135R

197th Air Refueling Squadron

1

Recife

Aviación Militar Bolivariana de Venezuela (Venezuelan Military Aviation) F-16A

GAC.16

4

Natal

Opposite top: Two FAB F-2000Cs air-refuel with a KC-130H tanker during a Cruzex mission. Força Aérea Brasileira Opposite middle top: A Fuerza Aérea Uruguaya OA-37B Dragonfly on short finals to land at Base Aérea de Natal. Dennis Vink Opposite middle bottom: FAB AH-2 Sabres (Mi-35 Hinds) participated in Cruzex for the first time during this edition of the exercise. Riccardo Niccoli Opposite bottom: One notable aspect of CRUZEX 2013 was participation by teams from the US and Venezuela both flying F-16 Fighting Falcons. Riccardo Niccoli This page: Cruzex 2013 was the last exercise for the Brazilian F-2000s, which are due to be retired at the end of the year. Dennis Vink

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17

NEWS REPORT

Above and this page: The FAB provided 14 F-5EMs for Cruzex 2013. All images Dennis Vink unless noted Opposite top: Venezuelan Military Aviation’s Y-8F-200 2509 assigned to Escuadrón 61 based at El Libertador AB provided airlift support for its F-16 team. Opposite middle top: Three Fuerza Aérea Colombiana OA-37Bs taxi from their parking spots underneath sun shelters for a Cruzex sortie from Natal. Opposite middle middle: The Fuerza Aérea Uruguaya sent three IA-58 Pucaràs to Cruzex 2013. Riccardo Niccoli Opposite left middle: One of three Fuerza Aérea Ecuatoriana A-29B Super Tucanos taxies to the runway at Natal. All three FAE A-29Bs deployed to Natal were painted in this digital style camouflage. Opposite middle bottom: An FAB F-5EM returns to parking at Natal after an afternoon mission. Opposite bottom: A busy flight line at Natal during Cruzex 2013. Riccardo Niccoli

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NEWS REPORT including the following: • Royal Canadian Air Force CC-130J Hercules, mainly dedicated to airdrops of special forces teams • Fuerza Aérea Colombiana OA-37B Dragonflies which operated in light attack, observation, anti-slow mover and forward air control roles • A Fuerza Aérea Colombiana KC-767 to airrefuel all aircraft equipped with a receptacle for the probe system • Fuerza Aérea Uruguaya A-37Bs/OA-37Bs and three IA-58 Pucaràs, which mainly flew air-to-ground missions Red air was provided, as in the past, by Brazilian Air Force F-5EMs based at Natal AB, sometimes augmented by F-16s. Search and rescue cover was provided by a variety of types, each operating from a different location – an H-34 (AS332 Super Puma) from 3°/8° GAV based at Caicò, in the middle of the area of operations; an H-1H from 1°/8° GAv at Natal; and an SC-105 (a C295 configured for SAR operations) from 2°/10° GAv at Recife. According to Brigadeiro do Ar Màrio Jordao, Director of CRUZEX 2013, the Brazilian Air Force has changed its face in the past ten years, “and I think the CRUZEX exercise allowed it to enter the modern world of air operations. All the lessons learned about tactics and joint operations are

included in our manuals. Today, we have an air force that’s much more operational and, above all, used to international co-operation. “More than ever, air forces stage common operations to meet and train together – to be ready, if necessary, to do what we could be required to do in an effective way.” Another notable aspect of the exercise was participation by teams from the US and Venezuela. In 2010 Venezuela refused to train with the US Air Force. Answering a specific question on the matter, Col Keith Colmex, chief of the US Air Force contingent, declared: “We’re happy to fly with the Venezuelan Air Force,” adding that pilots from all over the world are always happy to fly together, while politics is another question which is well above their level. A date for the next CRUZEX has yet to be announced (probably in 2016), but the host base will be Natal. Once a new civil airport located outside the city of Natal opens it will supersede the existing August Severo air terminal located at the base – which will then be redeveloped for the air force and used for military air operations, which are currently mixed with airliner flights.

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Commercial

Garuda Begins to Explore

Evelop Begins Operations

A regional brand has been established by Garuda Indonesia called Garuda Explore. The carrier will operate the 25 ATR 72-600s turboprops ordered in early in 2013, as well as Bombardier CRJ1000 NextGen regional jets being delivered. The first ATR 72600 was delivered in late November, ahead of Explore commencing operations on December 3. Garuda says the turboprops will enable it to fly to smaller regional airports in remote parts of Indonesia as part of a national programme to improve transport connectivity. Mark Broadbent

Airbus A320-214(WL) EC-LZD (msn 5642, ex CS-TRM) leased from Orbest of Portugal was used by Spanish charter startup Evelop Airlines to begin operations. The airliner was delivered on November 23, 2013, and was seen on approach to San Pablo Airport in Seville three days later. It is based at Tenerife Sur. Evelop will use Orbest’s air operator certificate (AOC) until at least April 2014, when it plans to transfer the airliner to its own AOC. Antonio Muñiz Zaragüeta

Dobrolet to Introduce Low-Cost Model in Russia The Aeroflot Group plans to launch Russia’s first low-cost carrier during 2014, known as Dobrolet – which roughly translates as ‘Goodflight’. Aeroflot says fares will be between 20% and 40% cheaper than the prices of the mainline carrier.

Dobrolet will initially fly from Moscow to St Petersburg, Samara and Ekaterinburg, using eight Boeing 737-800s in a one-class configuration. By 2016 the airline plans to start international routes. The group said it would invest

$100 million in Dobrolet over the next two years. It expects changes in Russian regulations at the end of 2013 will allow Dobrolet to charge for on-board meals, checked baggage and reserved seats – all standard for low-cost carriers.

COMMERCIAL ORDERS Airbus Customer Aerolíneas Argentinas Air Algérie Emirates Etihad Airways

Libyan Wings Airlines Qatar Airways ATR Customer Alpha Star Aviation Services GECAS Boeing Customer Aerolíneas Argentinas Emirates Etihad Airways

flyDubai Lufthansa Qatar Airways TUI Travel Plc Unidentified (private customer) Bombardier Customer Abu Dhabi Aviation Air Côte d’Ivoire China Express Airlines Iraqi Airways Nok Air Palma Holdings Ltd (for Ethiopian) Embraer Customer BA CityFlyer

Aircraft A330-200 A330-200 A380 A320neo A321neo A330-200F A350-900 A350-1000 A320neo A350-900 A330-200F

Number 4, purchase agreement 3, MoU 50 10 (for Air Serbia equity alliance partner) 26 1 40 10 Plus 30 options for different aircraft 4, MoU 3, MoU 5, plus 8 options

Date November 13 November 19 November 17 November 17 November 17 November 17 November 17 November 17 November 17 November 18 November 18 November 17

Aircraft ATR 72-600 ATR 72-600

Number 1, plus 1 option 5, plus 5 options

Date November 17 November 18

Aircraft 737-800 777X 777 Freighter 777-8X 777-9X 787-10 737 MAX 8 737-800 777-9X 777X 787-8 737-800BBJ

Number 20 150 1, plus 2 options 8 17, plus 12 purchase rights for either -8X or -9X 30 100, purchase commitment 11 34 (firms September 19, 2013 commitment) 50 2 (previously undisclosed, see December 2013) 1

Date October 21 (updates Dec 2013) November 17 November 17 November 17 November 17 November 17 November 17 November 17 November 17 November 17 November 19 October 24

Aircraft Q400 NextGen Q400 NextGen CRJ900 NextGen CS300 Q400 NextGen Q400 NextGen

Number 2, LoI 4, plus 2 options (purchase agreement) 3, plus 5 purchase agreements & 8 options 5, plus 11 options, LoI 2, plus 2 options and 4 purchase rights 4, plus 2 options, LoI

Date November 19 November 17 December 2 November 19 November 19 November 18

Aircraft ERJ-190

Number 1

Date November 26

Key: Lol - Letter of Intent MoU – Memorandum of Understanding, Compiled by Mark Broadbent

20

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Dobrolet is the second new subsidiary Aeroflot has launched in recent months after it announced a new Far East offshoot called Aurora in early November (see Aurora Launched by Aeroflot, December, p33). Mark Broadbent

Q400 Edges Towards 90 Passenger Market

A higher capacity cabin option for the Bombardier Q400 NextGen turboprop regional airliner has been revealed with seating for 86 passengers in a single-class layout. This is an increase of eight on the current standard cabin configuration. Thai low-cost carrier Nok Air is the launch customer for the new layout. Bombardier states: “the increased seating is possible via the conversion of the baggage door into a passenger exit, substituting passenger seats in place of the forward cargo compartment.” The option is available as a retrofit for inservice Q400s and can be installed from the outset in new production examples. The manufacturer claims the extra seats makes the Q400 7% more fuel-efficient and 17% cheaper to operate over its closest rival, the ATR 72-600. The Canadian company’s move is significant, as it edges the Q400 towards the 90-seat mark. Both Bombardier and ATR have studied new designs and stretched versions of existing types to cater for the 90-seat market, with the European manufacturer currently focused on concept studies as part of its New-Generation Turboprop project. Mark Broadbent

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Commercial

Do 328 For Air Peace Nigerian finance company SpringChild Investments has received an upgraded Dornier Do 328 (c/n 3200) from German refurbishment company 328. It will be used by its new airline, Air Peace, which will operate out of Murtala Mohammed Airport in Lagos. The carrier will offer charter, cargo and scheduled flights with three Do 328s and four Boeing 737s. The newlydelivered aircraft is configured with 27 seats, including four in business class. Another Do 328 (5N-BQT, c/n 3221) has already been delivered to Nigeria in a 13-seat VIP configuration and a third (N328DA, c/n 3171) will arrive before the end of 2013 in a 32-seat configuration. Guy Martin

Sharklet A320 for AirBlue

Conducting its maiden flight at Toulouse-Blagnac in France on November 27 was Airbus A320-214(WL) F-WWIV (msn 5891). The airliner is due to be delivered to AirBlue of Pakistan as AP-EDG, its first equipped with Sharklet wingtip devices. Olivier Gregoire

Records Claimed as EC175 Moves Towards Certification

Assembly of Eurocopter EC175s under way on the production line at Marignane in France. David Oliver

Eurocopter’s EC175 medium twin helicopter has achieved two timeto-climb records, further validating its performance, while its flight manual is being submitted to the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) as part of the certification process. The records, ratified by the Fédération Aéronautique Internationale, are time-to-climb to 6,000m (19,685ft) in 6 minutes, 54 seconds and time-to-climb to 3,000m (9,843ft) in 3 minutes, 10 seconds. They were achieved as Eurocopter moves towards EASA certification in early 2014, the final step in the programme prior to deliveries to the first three customers later in the year. The helicopter, aimed at the oil and gas support and search and rescue markets, has seen its certification delayed by the integration of the Helionix

alert and self-monitoring avionics system, first introduced on the Airbus A380 airliner. In parallel to certification activity, production of the EC175 is being ramped up, with the 15th helicopter now on the final assembly line the type shares with the Dauphin. Early in 2014 a new dedicated EC175 rolling production line will open. Eurocopter’s new chief executive, Guillaume Faury – who has experience in the automotive industry – has made it clear that moving production lines, similar to those already used for Eurocopter’s light helicopter production, should be introduced for all its product range at Marignane in southern France. Eurocopter has a backlog of 48 EC175s (including two firm orders for the VIP version), deliveries of which are scheduled for 2016.

American and US Airways Merge American Airlines (AA) and US Airways merged on December 9 after gaining approval from the US Bankruptcy Court in New York on November 25, creating the world’s largest airline in terms of fleet size and passengers carried. The clearance came after the airlines settled an anti-trust lawsuit brought by the US Department of Justice (DoJ) against the merger. The DoJ and attorney-generals from six states filed a suit with the US District Court in Washington saying the merger would reduce competition in the domestic air travel market (see Legal Challenge to American-US Merger, October 2013, p28). A settlement was reached with the DoJ after the carriers agreed to divest the merged airline of 57 slots at Ronald Reagan International Airport in Washington, DC; 34 at LaGuardia Airport in New York

City, and two each at Boston Logan, Massachusetts: Chicago O’Hare, Illinois; Dallas, Texas; Los Angeles, California and Miami, Florida. The slots are expected to be offered to low-cost airlines, such as Southwest and JetBlue. The Bankruptcy Court has approved the merger, allowing AA’s parent company AMR Corp to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after two years on the same day the merger was completed. The AMR Group was replaced by the new American Airlines Group. AA and US will now begin consolidating their operations under the American brand, with the US Airways name gradually disappearing, just as the Northwest and Continental brands disappeared when they were merged into Delta and United respectively. Mark Broadbent

Karinou Airlines’ Second Boeing 737 Central African Republic carrier Karinou Airlines plans to add a Boeing 737-300 to join its sole 737-2H4(A) (TL-AEG, c/n 23109, ex OD-AMB). The new aircraft (737-36N N11AQ, c/n 28650, ex PR-WJU) was parked at Miami International Airport in Florida in early December. It will become TL-ASM upon delivery. Javier Rodríguez

David Oliver

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Commercial

New 737-300 for Boliviana

Boeing 737-3U3 CP-2815 (c/n 28738, ex ZK-SJC) undergoing maintenance at Opa Locka Executive Airport in Florida on December 4. The airliner is due to be delivered to Boliviana de Aviación. Owned by GECAS, it was previously flown by Air New Zealand before being stored from June 3, 2013, at Christchurch International Airport. Boliviana de Aviación currently has nine 737-300s and a single -500 in service, plus a Boeing 767-200ER. Javier Rodríguez

MarsLand Halts Flights Sudanese carrier MarsLand Aviation has suspended operations, citing a lack of foreign currency. The company, which serves the Middle East and South Sudan, stopped flights on November 10. A lack of hard currency in Sudan has made it difficult to operate while US sanctions forced MarsLand to

1

BELL 412EPI FOR NSW POLICE

1

KA-32 FOR SHANGHAI Shanghai’s first firefighting helicopter, a Russian-built Kamov Ka-32, will be delivered in January 2014 and introduced into service during 2014. Seven pilots are currently being trained to fly it in Russia. David C Isby

2

MI-171S DELIVERED TO AIRFAST INDONESIA A second Mil Mil-171 helicopter has been handed over to Airfast Indonesia, Russian Helicopters

AI.01.14

announced on November 27. Built at the UlanUde Aviation Plant, it joins the first, delivered last year (see Mi-171 Delivered to Indonesia, February 2013, p29). Two more are scheduled to be delivered to the company. Nigel Pittaway

NEWS BY NUMBERS

Australian distributor Hawker Pacific has sold the first Bell 412EPI in the country to the New South Wales Police Force, it was announced on November 25. The sale came just weeks after the conclusion of an Australian sales tour of this latest version of the Bell 412, conducted by Hawker Pacific and Bell Helicopters. The NSW Police Aviation Support Branch will take delivery in the second half of 2014, adding to its existing fleet of five helicopters and one fixed-wing aircraft. The first Bell 412EPI was delivered to Abu Dhabi Aviation in November. Nigel Pittaway

24

register its three leased Boeing 737s in Georgia and Gambia at double the cost of local registration. The carrier, formed in 2001, has reportedly suffered losses of around $3.5 million over the past six months. Sudanese aviation has also been affected by cuts in fuel subsidies. Guy Martin

2

MORE XIAN MA-60S FOR CAMEROON Cameroon secured a XAF34 billion ($71 million) loan from China in early November for two Xian MA-60 aircraft to join Camair Co’s other three. The nearly interest-free loan is part of a larger Chinese assistance package for the country. The aircraft will be used on domestic and regional routes. Guy Martin

CRJ200P2F Passes Preliminary Review

Miami-based Aeronautical Engineers Inc (AEI) has completed a preliminary design review for its passenger-to-freighter conversion of the Bombardier CRJ200 (further to CRJ Freighter Programme Launched, April 2013, p21). The milestone establishes the basic design features of the freighter, which will include a 94in (2.39m) wide by 77in (1.96m) high door and have a 6.7 tonne payload capacity. AEI will now conduct a critical design review to confirm the functionality of the new aircraft. Modification on the first airframe is scheduled to begin in June 2014. The company says it has 24 firm orders from five customers in Canada, Europe, Mexico, southeast Asia and the United States, although none have been identified by AEI. Mark Broadbent

Aserca Airlines Venezuela MD-87

McDonnell Douglas MD-87 N572SH (c/n 49780, ex LV-BZH) of Ansett Worldwide is the first of the type destined for Aserca Airlines Venezuela. It has been stored at Opa Locka Executive Airport in Florida, since March 8, 2013. A second MD-87 (N599SH, c/n 49727, ex LV-BSC) is also due to be used by the airline – which began operations in 1991 and currently has 11 MD-82/83s and four DC-9-31/32s, some six of which are stored. It serves domestic destinations in Venezuela and international routes to Dominica and Aruba. Javier Rodríguez

Plans for A350 Regional Confirmed Airbus has launched a lower-thrust and weight variant of the A350-900 known as the A350 Regional. It uses the basic A350-900 configuration but adapts it for shorter-range missions by de-rating the RollsRoyce Trent XWB-84s from their standard 85,000lb (370kN) to approximately 70,000lb (311kN). Maximum take-off weight is limited to 250 tonnes, down from the 268

tonnes of the baseline A350-900. Airbus said the airliner is optimised for 6,800nm (12,593km) routes, compared to the 8,916nm (14,350km) of the standard variant. UAE flag carrier Etihad Airways has been identified as the launch customer, with 24 of the 40 A350900s it ordered on November 17 due to be delivered as A350 Regionals. Mark Broadbent

2

A330-200S IN SERVICE WITH ARIK AIR Nigerian carrier Arik Air took delivery in October of a second Airbus A330200 (5N-JID, msn 927) on lease from Ireland’s Pembroke Group. It is fitted with 187 economy and 30 business class seats. Arik Air said it will be used on the Lagos to London route but could be used to fly to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Brazil. The company also has two A340500s in service for long-haul flights. Guy Martin

New Colours for Iberia The fifth Airbus A330-302 delivered to Iberia is the first of the airline’s fleet to appear in its new colour scheme. The airliner (EC-LYF, msn 1437, ex F-WWKA) named Juan Carlos I was delivered on November 14 and was noted at Madrid-Barajas Airport in Spain on November 30. Javier Rodríguez

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The Aviation World in 2014

REGIONS • COMMERCIAL• MILITARY • TECHNOLOGY Piaggio P1HH Hammerhead • Bell V-280 Valor Kamov Ka-62 • Embraer KC-390 • F-15SE Silent Eagle A350XWB • Falcon 5X • A320neo • Boeing 737MAX • Embraer E2 AgustaWestland’s Project Zero • MQ-8C Fire Scout

African Aviation Outlook

26

S

trong economic growth in Africa is driving the aviation industry there, resulting in a proliferation of new carriers and routes and growing passenger numbers. But the road to profitability for many commercial airlines is a bumpy one faced with high operating costs, poor regional connectivity and government obstacles.

Commercial Aviation

Commercial airframer Boeing is optimistic about Africa’s economic prospects for 2014 – a long-term growth rate of 4.4% is expected to see increased air travel to, from and within the continent. Boeing anticipates that African air travel will outpace the world average next year with 5.7% annual growth. Included in this development is increasing intra-African travel with intra-regional hubs and pan-African networks improving efficiency – something that Tanzaniabased Fastjet aims to do by becoming Africa’s first continental airline. However, Fastjet is finding it harder than anticipated to become the first pan-African low cost carrier – with its subsidiaries, it is currently only operating in Angola, Ghana, Kenya and Tanzania. Legal hurdles in South Africa, for instance

regarding ownership structure, have stalled domestic operations there. A number of new carriers were due to launch in South Africa during 2013, notably SkyWise, FlySafair and Fastjet’s domestic operations, but their delayed launches are indicative of some of the challenges facing the local industry: stiff competition and legal issues. Nevertheless, by the end of 2014, South Africa should have at least two new low cost carriers (SkyWise and Fastjet). The departure of 1time and Velvet Sky has raised ticket prices and greatly improved South African airline profitability, although national carrier South African Airways is struggling to turn a profit. As part of a fleet renewal process, the carrier is shopping for 25-30 widebody aircraft to replace its existing older Airbus A340s, and may purchase either the Airbus A350 or Boeing 787, for delivery around 2017. Africa can expect to see a plethora of new start-up airlines in 2014, continuing an ongoing trend. There is huge potential for low cost carriers – at present budget airlines account for 11% of international and domestic African capacity. New carriers

are popping up across the continent, from Burkina Faso to Somalia and Sudan. To meet the growing demand, Boeing predicts the continent will require nearly 1,100 new airliners over the next two decades. African carriers are requiring ever more aircraft to replace existing airframes, primarily to gain better fuel efficiency – the average age of in-service aircraft has dropped by nearly 20% since 2004, according to Boeing. Airbus has a similar forecast, predicting that African airlines will need 970 new passenger aircraft worth $120 billion by 2032. Economic growth, a growing middle class, affordability, urbanisation, tourism and migration are some of the factors Airbus believes will push African passenger growth at annual rates of nearly 6%, above the world average. On the business aviation side, Bombardier predicts strong sales in the African region, especially from Nigeria and South Africa. Commodities wealth and economic growth have driven the business aviation market, which has already doubled the business jet fleet in the past ten years. The Canadian manufacturer predicts that Africa will receive 320 business jets between 2013 and

2022, and 480 aircraft between 2023 and 2032, increasing the fleet to 350 and 960 respectively (for a compound annual growth rate of 5%). Bombardier cautions that business aviation faces several barriers, notably expensive airspace and airport fees, poorly trained personnel, legal restrictions, poor infrastructure and high tariffs. Another issue is the accident rate, which is four times higher than the global average, prompting the European Union to ban many African carriers from flying in European airspace. The Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan are responsible for half of Africa’s aviation accidents, according to the African Airlines Association. The above-mentioned challenges affect the entire African aviation market – something the International Air Transport Association (IATA) sees as constricting performance in spite of strong economic growth on the continent. Another restricting factor is government bail-outs for loss-making state-owned airlines – nine African carriers survive through government support worth $2.5 billion, according to the Centre for Aviation. While global airlines are expected by IATA

to make a combined profit of $16.4 billion in 2014, African carriers are forecast to post a combined profit of $100 million, up from 2013’s predicted loss of $100 million. Although emerging market growth has slowed, African airlines continue to increase profitability. Nevertheless, the airline industry is a tough one. Some economists point out that investing in airlines gives a return a third lower than other industries. Legal restrictions and government interference are some of the factors holding back African airline development. The Airlines Association of Southern Africa has called on African governments to adopt new visa rules, open their markets to investment and competition and implement safety standards – whether governments will do this in 2014 remains to be seen. The African Union has made the development of air transport one of its main economic goals, particularly for improving intra-African trade, and in January 2013 endorsed the Abuja Declaration and Plan of Action for improving African aviation safety by 2015. Who knows how much action will result from these initiatives.

27 The first humpback F-16D for the Egyptian Air Force (Al-Quˉwaˉt al-Gawwıˉyä alMisrıˉyä), 9821 (c/n JK-01) on its maiden flight from NAS Fort Worth JRB on May 16, 2012. Carl Richards

Military Aviation

Although the African military aircraft market is predicted to decline slightly over the next decade, budgets are expected to increase. Military aircraft manufacturers can expect a few positive developments in 2014, notably from North Africa, especially from the ongoing arms race between Algeria and Morocco. Transnational terrorism, modernisation and piracy are other factors that are keeping the African military aviation market ticking over. Algeria is shopping for new tankers, transports, helicopters and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft. In 2013 the country evaluated the Boeing C-17 Globemaster III strategic transport and Airbus A330 MRTT tanker with an eye to replacing its ageing Il-78 Midas tankers and acquiring a new transport aircraft. Algeria asked the two respective companies to conduct demonstrations. According to some estimates, the country is increasing its defence spending by 6% through 2017, as it modernises and re-equips to meet the challenge of insecurity and terrorism in the region. Libya, Morocco and Tunisia have also

increased their defence budgets for 2014 and can be expected to make further purchases as they deal with the continued fall-out from the Arab Spring and counter Islamist militants. Egypt is another country to watch, after the United States suspended some of its military aid in October 2013 following the military’s removal of President Mohamed Mursi in July. More than $200 million in cash aid was suspended, together with the delivery of four F-16 Fighting Falcons, ten AH-64 Apaches, Harpoon anti-ship missiles and M1 Abrams tank kits. Meanwhile, in August, Spain suspended deliveries of six Airbus Military C295 transports. Subsequently, Egypt said it would look outside the US for weapons, and in November engaged in talks with Russia over the supply of arms, notably 24 MiG-29M2 fighters, and could sign deals for at least $2 billion worth of Russian weapons. Another potential customer for reequipment is the Free Libyan Air Force, as it continues to rebuild following the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. Plans were announced for the proposed purchase of Rafales, Mirage F1s, C-130s and CH-47s, but

continued instability may put these on hold. Sudan’s Air Force (Al Quwwat al-Jawwiya AsSudaniya) is expected to continue with its spending spree, having already received Su-24 Fencers and Su-25 Frogfoots (all former Belarusian Air Force aircraft), as well as Mi-17 Hips and Mi-24 Hinds (all new aircraft supplied by Russia). In sub-Saharan Africa, Angola will receive 18 former Indian Air Force Su-27 Flankers, while Mozambique will receive eight refurbished MiG21s, two overhauled An-26s, an L-39, and a couple of Aerostar Festival light aircraft. As a first sign that Mozambique is rebuilding its dilapidated air force, a Hawker 850XP business jet was delivered in September. Embraer’s Super Tucano has been gaining in popularity into Africa, notably in Angola, Burkina Faso, Mauritania and Senegal and can expect to make further headway, especially until the Paramount Group’s AHRLAC comes onto the market. Having suffered some minor delays, this South African developed counter-insurgency and reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled, to make its first flight in early 2014. The AHRLAC is a low cost platform that caters for a wide

market. Another new South African type is Denel Dynamics’ Seeker 400 optionally armed unmanned aerial vehicle, which as this issue went to press was expected to make its first flight by early 2014. The aircraft, based on the smaller Seeker II, already has an unnamed launch customer. Other developments from South Africa in 2014 might include an order for maritime surveillance/ light transport aircraft to meet the requirement of the South African Air Force Project Saucepan. There is also talk of the South African Air Force acquiring Ilyushin Il-76 transports to meet its strategic airlift requirements. Elsewhere on the continent, other African countries may follow Ghana’s lead by acquiring transport aircraft that are leased to the United Nations for regional missions (Ghana has ordered an additional two C295s from Airbus Military through this innovative scheme). Alenia is also making inroads into the African airlift market, with Chad scheduled to become the second C-27J Spartan operator on the continent after Morocco. It’s due to receive two new aircraft in late 2013/early 2014. AW2014 Guy Martin

South African Airways is shopping for 25-30 widebody aircraft to replace its existing Airbus A340s

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Asian Aviation Outlook A

sia is a large and populous continent, home to more than four billion people and covering almost 9% of the planet’s surface area. The continent’s economic growth rate has quadrupled over the last century and is set to continue into 2014 and well beyond. From an aviation perspective, both civil and military, manufacturers around the world look to Asia to fill their order books after years of financial difficulties and budget cutbacks in the established European and North American markets.

Civil Market

Although China is the fastest growing economy in the region, other Asian countries have expanding civil aviation sectors. According to a recent report by AlixPartners, a global advisory company, the continent will become the biggest airline market in the world by 2031,

receiving 31% of all new jet deliveries. The report noted that, with Asia’s favourable demographics and growing middle classes, the industrial centre of gravity is shifting East and airlines in these markets are building their fleets and placing large orders. To illustrate the point EADS CEO Tom Enders, speaking in Sydney in late 2013, said the group’s

2008 market forecast for the Asia-Pacific region, led by Airbus, was for around 7,600 aircraft by 2028. However, he explained, rapid growth between 2008 and 2013 has forced the European aircraft maker to revise its estimate to over 10,000 units between now and 2023. “Roughly an additional 35% above the number we were estimating in 2008,” he said. The AlixPartners report, ‘The 2013 Asia Aerospace & Defence Industry Outlook’, refers to Asia as the ‘growth motor’ for airlines, particularly in the low cost carrier (LCC) sector, but warns that airlines still face pressure from high fuel prices and pricing competition among new global competitors. Improving service models and cabin innovations are adding to the LCC boom and encroaching

into the market space of full service airlines. As a consequence, airlines across Asia-Pacific are making changes to their operating models and the line between low cost and full service airlines is blurred. In the AlixPartners report C.V. Ramachandran, Head of the company’s Asia Business Unit, explained: “With severe competition, passenger airlines are no longer competing just

on price and schedules. They have to differentiate themselves by providing innovative products and service offerings, as well as efficient marketing strategies. Being lost in the mid-market blur could sound the death knell for airlines that fail to differentiate.” Commenting on orders for the Airbus A320neo single-aisle airliner, Enders noted that a significant percentage of the 2,400 unit order backlog is from the Asian LCC market. “Broadly, if you look at the new orders, 60% are for growth and probably 40% are for replacement, so it’s predominantly generated by growth and the low cost

airlines have a huge part in that,” he said. AlixPartners reported that the commercial aerospace sector was the strongest in the aerospace and defence market in Asia during 2013, largely due to the work carried out for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) such as Airbus and Boeing. The document also predicts that the workload of the OEMs main commercial programmes will have increased by 45% by

2017. Today, Japanese companies are reported to manufacture more than a third of Boeing 787 components. Asian maintenance and repair organisations (MROs) are also predicted to remain profitable in the same period. However, as costs continue to increase in the region, the differential between these and western maintenance facilities is becoming less. As a consequence, Asian facilities are less attractive than they once were. As a result, Asian MROs are under pressure to cut costs

and seek greater efficiencies without affecting quality.

Asian Defence Market

Generally speaking, the defence budgets of Asian nations have not declined as has been seen in Europe or North America and regional tensions will see the expansion and re-equipment of air forces continue throughout 2014 and beyond. While the rapid

expansion of China’s military is one of the factors behind the arms boom in Asia, other strained relations abound including territorial disputes in the South China Sea, the Kashmir region, on the Korean peninsula and a recent incursion into the East Malaysian state of Sabah by Filipino insurgents. “There are a host of threads running through the larger regional dynamic,” commented Forecast International’s Asia-Pacific analyst,

Dan Darling. “Many of these involve peer competition, stateversus-state standoffs such as India-Pakistan or North and South Korea. Others relate to maritime presence requirements, territorial disputes, and military hardware upgrades made possible by upswings in economic growth.” China’s desire to become a global power and the resulting steady growth in its defence spending has added a

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further dimension to the regional arms race. Forecast International reports that the Chinese defence budget doubled between 2008 and 2013 and predicts a further 41% increase by 2017. Furthermore, it says that of the 27% increase in defence spending across AsiaPacific projected between 2013 and 2017, when compared with the previous five-year period, almost 60% of the differential is expected to stem from China. India is also a growing regional military power and

raised defence spending in its 2013-14 budget by over 5%, to a reported $37.4 billion, and is now a major target for western arms manufacturers. The South Asia country is currently receiving platforms such as the Boeing C-17A Globemaster III and P-8I Neptune from the US and the Mikoyan MiG29K fighter to revitalise its naval aviation force from Russia. It is also negotiating a contract with French manufacturer Dassault for the purchase of 126 Rafale fighters to fulfil its Medium MultiRole Combat Aircraft

requirement. The introduction of fourth and fifth generation fighter aircraft is set to continue for the foreseeable future as Asian air forces overhaul their capabilities. Japan, for

example, will begin receiving the Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II later this decade. The stealth fighter is also reported to be the favourite in South Korea’s revamped F-X III competition, which saw Boeing’s F-15E Silent Eagle selected and then rejected in 2013. Malaysia, too, has a requirement for a modern multi-role combat aircraft to replace its MiG29Ns. The incursion into Sabah in February 2013 has focussed attention on shortcomings in its intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities and may well result in a higher priority

Forecast International reports that the Chinese as a defence cheap budget doubled alternative to manned between 2008 and aircraft and 2013 and predicts the ideal asolution further 41% increase by 2017 to perform

for littoral ISR and armed helicopter platforms. Elsewhere in the region, Vietnam continues to receive Sukhoi Su27MK2 fighters, with another batch of 12 expected in 2014, and Indonesia is set to receive second-hand Lockheed C-130H Hercules from Australia, upgraded General Dynamics F-16Cs and F-16Ds from the US, along with newbuild Boeing AH-64E Guardians. It will also continue to receive Korea Aerospace Industries T-50i Golden Eagle and Embraer A-29 Super Tucano trainers, which are already on order. “It is clear that

throughout much of the region, the vicissitudes of respective national economies will not necessarily impede the motivations of political leadership to upgrade their nation’s military components,” predicts Darling. “The political willpower to do so is borne out of strategic necessity in countries such as Pakistan, India and South Korea, and a sense of impending threat in Japan and Taiwan. While these countries’ budgets may not exactly skyrocket in the near term, dramatic economic slowdowns are unlikely to result in sharp budgetary reductions on the defence side either.” AW2014 Nigel Pittaway

as a cheap alternative to manned aircraft and the ideal solution to perform as a cheap alternative to manned aircraft and the ideal solution to perform

India is negotiating a contract with French manufacturer Dassault for the purchase of 126 Rafale fighters to fulfil its Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft requirement. Henri-Pierre Grolleau

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Australian Aviation Outlook T

Tom Kool/AirTeamImages

he Australian economy has performed better than many in the wake of the global financial crisis. Much of this has been thanks to a strong resource sector which has serviced growing economies such as China. Growth in this sector is now slowing, as many predicted, and this will have an impact on both regular passenger transport (RPT) carriers such as Qantas and Virgin Australia, as well as the niche fly in, fly out (FIFO) regional market. A change of government in September 2013 has brought renewed business confidence and the promise of a halt to spending cuts in the defence sector. The new coalition government

has pledged to return defence spending to 2% of GDP over the next ten years, but this is unlikely to have any effect in the short term.

Civil Aviation Sector

Australia’s two major airlines continued their battle for market share through 2013 and both Alan Joyce, CEO of Qantas, and John Borghetti, CEO of Virgin Australia, predict the competition will continue its intensity throughout 2014. Qantas posted an underlying profit before tax of $192 million Australian dollars and a statutory profit after tax of $6 million, compared with figures of $95 million (profit) and $244 million (loss) in the previous

financial year. “Three of our four major business segments were profitable – Qantas Domestic, Jetstar and Qantas Loyalty – and we halved Qantas International’s losses compared to last year,” Alan Joyce said. Qantas’ international division has been losing money for several years and has been the subject of a fiveyear turnaround plan. “We are two years into our five-year turnaround plan for Qantas International, and we are on-track towards our target of a return to profit in FY15,” he predicted. Qantas will take delivery of six Boeing 737-800s in 2014 to bring its fleet of the single-aisle aircraft to 75, and will phase out its domestic Boeing 767-300s and reduce its international fleet of 747400s to

ten by the end of 2015. Jetstar, the Qantas Group’s low cost carrier (LCC), has continued its spectacular growth and reached two milestones in 2013: 100 million passengers and a fleet of 100 aircraft. It received its first Boeing 787-8 in October 2013 and expects to have three in service by early 2014. The airline says it is ontrack to have an all-787 long-haul fleet by the end of 2015. “Looking to the rest of FY14, we expect that trading conditions will remain challenging despite a reduced level of capacity growth in the Australian domestic market,” Joyce concluded. “The US economy is improving and there are signs of a recovery in Europe as well. At the same time there is uncertainty over how fast and sustainable the recovery will be.”

By contrast, John Borghetti, head of Virgin Australia reported a pretax loss of $35.2 million and statutory loss after tax of $98.1 million in the last financial year, as the airline restructures to compete with Qantas. During 2013, it completed its 100% acquisition of Skywest to form the core of its Virgin Regional operation, which is competing against Qantas Link. It also completed acquisition of 60% of Tigerair, which it hopes to grow to better compete with Jetstar in the domestic LCC market. “While the financial results clearly did not meet our initial expectations,” said Borghetti, “the 2013 financial year was a pivotal year for Virgin Australia, in which we completed our major restructuring and transformation programme and reshaped the competitive landscape of the Australian aviation market, despite a very difficult economic

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environment and intense competition. We now have the right structure in place to compete vigorously in all key market segments and achieve sustainable performance in the future.” Nonetheless, Borghetti did not make any predictions for FY14, blaming the uncertain economic environment. From a regional aviation perspective, Paul Tyrell, CEO of the Regional Aviation Association of Australia (RAAA), says that apart from airlines such as Alliance, which specialises in the FIFO sector, the RPT operators found business to be tough. “There are very small margins and high capital expense as a percentage of profit. It will be a tough year from a market perspective, but with a bit more confidence. People will certainly be looking to the future in terms of where they go with their fleets,” he noted. “If we put the resource sector aside I think the RPT space in regional aviation is an ongoing tough one. There’s a

consolidation of regional services, as Qantas and Virgin have moved seriously into the regional space with very good products. Now they have economies of scale that they can take advantage of, where they can operate skinny or non-profit routes for a while because of their larger networks. That creates a challenge for the traditional RPT players without those economies of scale. The interest the majors are showing in the regional space will be an ongoing challenge for the traditional players.”

Australian Defence Force

This year will be a significant one for Australia’s military aviation capability, with deliveries of the first Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II fighters and Alenia Aermacchi C-27J Spartan battlefield airlifters to the Royal Australian Air Force. The Royal Australian Navy will receive its first Lockheed Martin/Sikorsky MH-60R Seahawk helicopters and the army will continue to develop its Eurocopter Tiger ARH and MRH 90 helicopter capabilities. The two F-35As will be delivered in the middle of the year

and are due to arrive at the international training centre at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona in January 2015 to support initial training. Australia has a requirement for 72 F-35As, to replace three squadrons of McDonnell Douglas F/A-18A/B Hornets by the end of 2020. The RAAF has a potential requirement for up to 100 aircraft. Ten C-27Js are on order via a Foreign Military Sales contract with L-3 Communications. The first aircraft is due to be handed over in July 2014 but will remain in the US to support training. The first deliveries to Australia will begin in 2015. Likewise, the first MH-60R for the navy will arrive at NAS Jacksonville, Florida in January 2014 to support training and work-up, with the first seven helicopters being delivered to Australia at the end of the year. In addition to aircraft and helicopter deliveries the preferred bidders for two major training projects, Air 5428 (fixed wing Pilot Training System) and Air 9000 Phase 7 (Helicopter Aircrew Training System), will most likely be decided. The competitions involve the selection of either the Beechcraft T-6C Texan II or Pilatus PC-21 for the former; and Bell 429 or Eurocopter EC135 for

the latter. Another project that is likely to gain traction during the outlook period will be Air 7000 Phase 2B which will result in an order for Boeing P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft. Eight aircraft were initially required, along with seven Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Tritons, but the exact mix is currently under review. The final decision may involve more P-8As and fewer MQ-4Cs. Against this optimistic backdrop is the problem of funding. The previous government allowed defence spending to fall to historic lows and although the new government has vowed to stop further cuts and increase spending to 2% of GDP it has yet to make its plans clear. Forecast International predicts steady increases in Australian military spending over the next five years, up to $25 billion US dollars above the 2013 level. It said: “Although Australia’s new government has stated the bold intention of increasing the country’s level of defence spending to 2% GDP over the next ten years, many hurdles stand in the way of achieving that benchmark – notwithstanding the fact that the 2013-2014 budgetary allocation at about 1.56% of GDP represents the lowest level of military expenditure by the country since 1938.” AW2014 Nigel Pittaway

While 2013 was a challenging year for both civil and military Australian aviation, there are signs that 2014 will see a slight improvement

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Chinese Aviation Outlook M

ilitary and civil aircraft manufactured in China will still be built primarily for the domestic market, despite a strong push for export. Next year’s production figures will reflect rates of economic growth and defence spending, which are expected to grow at up to 7.5%. Sustained growth is likely to be the most important factor for China’s aviation industry next year. But despite this, state control and domestic user requirements are more likely to drive events rather than the use of technology to maximise profit in the civil sector and increase military capability in various missions.

Policy and Political Considerations Because of the

importance of aviation to China’s economy and its military capabilities, investment is often made in programmes that offer prestige and make a statement about China’s global significance, rather than development of the most profitable airliner or most effective fighter. As indigenous capabilities are built up, China will remain a large-scale importer of civil and military aircraft (especially from Russia) and the technologies used in them. These factors have continued to shape the Chinese aerospace industry, and the state-owned ‘national champions’ are investing in the development of all types of aircraft at a time when their Western counterparts are finding investment difficult. In the civil sector, there is greater recognition

of the importance of market forces, even though major decisions are not necessarily influenced by them. And what of China’s military, will it step out from behind its veil? Until 2011, Chinese military forces did not participate in international exercises, next year more involvement can be expected, as can joint training between the various Chinese armed services.

Civil Aviation

Civil sector flagship projects are the 90-seat COMAC ARJ21 and its follow-on, the 174-seat COMAC C919. The larger aircraft is China’s attempt at producing an airliner that will be suitable for the domestic market (with several hundred near-assured sales) and competitive in the world market. The C919 is scheduled to

make its maiden flight in 2014, but may not do so until 2015. For most of China’s civil aviation market, which comprised 3,888 aircraft flying in 2011, growth will continue in 2014 adding considerably to the existing fleet and a projected total of 4,500 by 2020. Similarly the 175 airports that currently exist will increase to 220 by 2015 giving an indication of how aviation infrastructure is undergoing major development. The total number of passengers carried in China, though slower than in the past, is projected to be in the high single-digit range for 2014, and air cargo may reach 15% growth. Despite the emphasis on new indigenous

designs, next year will see continued strong competition for airliner sales to China including the Airbus 380 and Boeing 747-8. China is also a likely market for new Antonov An-124 Ruslan heavy airlift transports.

Military Aviation

Over the next 12 months Chinese military aviation will be investing in a number of emerging hightechnology programmes. The stealthy Shenyang J-31 (alternatively referred to as the J-21 and F-60) which first flew in 2012 will remain in development throughout next year. The existing prototypes are powered by Russian Klimov RD-93 engines; next year the major issue for the J-31 programme will be integration of the Chinese-built WS-

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13, an engine under development that is reportedly lagging behind the aircraft’s evolution. Chengdu’s twin-engine J-20 stealth fighter, which first flew in 2011 and is not projected to be in operation with the People’s Liberation Army Air Force before 2017, will also remain in development. But Chengdu’s production facilities will remain busy over the next 12 months rolling out FC-1 (produced with Pakistan as the JF-17 Thunder, see Pride of Pakistan, December p40-47) and J-10 fighters, both powered by Russian-built engines. The Shenyang J-15, a licence-built version of the Sukhoi Su-33, is likely to go into service next year in its role as China’s first carrier-based fighter. The

FC-1, J-10 and J-15 are all seen as strong export candidates. China remains committed to producing large multi-engine bombers. Unconfirmed press reports have suggested that a new bomber design will be unveiled in 2014 and an improved version of the H-6K bomber (based on the Soviet-era Tupolev Tu-16 Badger) may be produced. Xian’s Y-20 fourengine airlifter remains in development and a major objective for the programme will be integration of Chinese WS-20 engines to replace the Russian-built Soloviev D-30 turbofans currently fitted to the prototype. Service entry of the Y-20 is projected for 2017. Despite the effort to develop the indigenous

Y-20, China will also buy Russia’s Il-476 transporter, an upgraded version of the Il-76 Candid fitted with new Aviadvigatel PS-90A-76 turbofan engines. In 2014, China is also likely to continue developing new types of helicopters, while producing older types and importing Russian Mil Mi-171 Hips and Mil Mi26 Halos. Unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) and cruise missiles are deemed to be strategically important for China. UAVs will provide stand-off surveillance of contested offshore areas and cruise missiles counter potential adversaries with greater conventional airpower capabilities.

Overview

While China is developing impressive new aircraft,

limitations in its manufacturing processes, especially for jet engines, remain. Though military prototypes merit attention, most warplanes are older designs and China’s capability to use them, while improving, is still below that of its neighbours. China understandably presents the C919 as the foundation of its civil aviation sector of the future, but the Xian MA60, a Chinese version of the Soviet-era Antonov An-24 Coke twin turboprop, has attracted international attention because of issues with its safety and certification. How the country reconciles the champions of the future with the challenges of today will be the key Chinese aviation story of 2014. David C Isby AW2014

Chinese aviation – civil and military – will see further growth in 2014. While there may not be a single event to dominate the news, the tenth Airshow China at Zhuhai in November will be watched with worldwide interest to see how the country will present its ongoing transformation into a major aircraft producer and operator

The Xian MA60, a Chinese version of the Soviet-era Antonov An-24 Coke twin turboprop, has attracted international attention because of issues with its safety and certification. Weimeng/AirTeamImages

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Indian Aviation Outlook I

ndia is striving to equip its armed forces with new and upgraded combat aircraft to counter the rise of Chinese military airpower and maintain superiority over its longtime rival Pakistan. It has longstanding plans to raise the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) combat aircraft force to 39.5 squadrons. Its order of battle currently falls short of this total by approximately 20%, a situation unlikely to be rectified before 2017 at the earliest.

Military Aviation

The Dassault Rafale was selected as the mediummulti-role combat aircraft in January 2012, with negotiations to finalise the deal throughout the following year. The process is expected to be completed in 2014, according to the French Defence Minister JeanYves Le Drian, speaking to the media on October 9, 2013. Six squadrons will be equipped with the fighter at three bases, with Ambala AFS in Western Air Command the first in 2017. India has scaled down its purchases of the fifth-

generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) from around 250 to 144. Based on the Sukhoi T-50, FGFA will be developed by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) and Sukhoi. Negotiations for research and development contracts are due to be completed in 2014. Deliveries of Sukhoi Su-30MKIs will continue during 2014 to fulfil orders for 272 aircraft, around 60% of which had been delivered by the end of 2013. It is planned that 13.5 squadrons will be equipped with the aircraft, with new units re-equipped every six months. An upgrade line for Dassault Mirage 2000 Vajras will be established at Bangalore during the year. A night-vision goggles-compatible cockpit, new navigation, electronic warfare and identification friend or foe systems, Thales RDY-2 multi-mode/multi-layered radar, and advanced beyond visible range missile capability will be installed at the facility in the surviving 38 2000Hs and nine 2000THs. The first of two prototypes

upgraded by Dassault and Thales flew following modernisation at Istres le-Tube in France on October 5, 2013. In addition to the 49 existing airframes, a pair of twoseaters will be acquired. Work continues on the long-delayed Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) for the Mk 1 to achieve its initial operational clearance 2 (IOC-2) by the end of 2013, which will allow it to be inducted into IAF service. Pressure has been put on HAL by the Indian Government to meet the deadline – and final operational clearance by the end of 2014 – but by the start of December 2013 IOC-2 had not been announced. Development of naval and two-seat prototypes continues, as well as the definitive, re-engined Mk II variant. During January the aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya will arrive in Indian waters, five years later than originally planned. It departed Severodvinsk in Russia on November 26, 2013, following refurbishment and will be based at Karwar in Karnataka. Its

primary combat aircraft will be the Mikoyan MiG-29K. Delivery of 29 additional MiG-29K/KUBs is underway, in addition to the 12 Ks and four two-seat KUBs already in service, to equip its air wing. Deliveries of HALbuilt Hawk Mk132s advanced trainers and Pilatus PC-7 Mk II basic training aircraft will continue through 2014 as the IAF strives to upgrade its training syllabuses. Confirmation of procurement of a further 37 PC-7s above the originally 75 ordered in May 2012 is likely in 2014. Development also continues on replacement for the HAL HJT-16 Kiran, the HAL HJT-36 Sitara intermediate jet trainer, but the aim of initial operational clearance by the end of 2013 appeared likely to be delayed until 2014 at the earliest, as AIR International went to press. The Indian Government’s desire to expand the country’s private aerospace industry and reduce its dependence on HAL is illustrated by the search

for 56 new transports to replace the HAL/Hawker Siddeley 748M – known as the ‘Avro’. In a first for India, governmentowned companies (public sector undertakings, or PSUs) are barred from the project. A request for proposals was issued in May 2013 to Airbus Military, Alenia Aeronautica, Antonov, Boeing, Embraer, Ilyushin, Lockheed Martin and Saab. The selected foreign partner is expected to deliver 16 aircraft in flyaway condition within two years of contract signature and to begin manufacturing another 40 at an Indian facility within five years, with all delivered within 120 months. Receipt of submissions was originally due in October 2013, but was extended twice to March 8, 2014 because of pressure exerted by the Minister for Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises, Praful Patel, who objected to the exclusion of PSUs from the competition. HAL has offered an alternative to a new aircraft and on August 15, 2013 issued a request for

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information to industry to examine options to reengine 59 HS 748Ms. Other transport programmes will reach significant milestones during 2014. Five Boeing C-17A Globemaster IIIs will all be delivered, concluding the original order for ten. Final approval from the Cabinet Committee on Security for six additional Lockheed Martin C-130J-30 Hercules is expected. The transports are expected to form a new squadron at Panagarh AFS, West Bengal. A single C-130J equipped for weather reconnaissance is also sought for the National Disaster Management Authority. During 2014 the last batch of ten upgraded Antonov An-32RE Sutlejs are due to be redelivered from Kiev in the Ukraine and a further 64 will be modernised in India at Kanpur. One way or another, the future of India’s controversial AgustaWestland Mk641 VIP helicopter programme will be resolved in the coming months.

Allegations of bribery in the selection process – denied by Finmeccanica, the parent company of AgustaWestland – resulted in India suspending deliveries in early 2013 after three of 12 ordered had been delivered. The manufacturer invoked an arbitration clause in the contract on November 20, 2013, to resolve the matter and India may cancel procurement of the helicopters if the negotiations fail. The outcome could have wider repercussions than the AW101 programme. India has several on-going helicopter procurement projects and AgustaWestland may be barred from consideration if it is found culpable of contravening Indian procurement legislation. They include the Naval Utility Helicopter programme for 56 aircraft for the Indian Navy. AgustaWestland has proposed the AW189, and has also offered the AW109 for a Coast Guard requirement for 14 machines. HAL is expected to

begin delivery of the first of 64 light combat helicopters to the Indian Air Force in 2014. During the year the Indian military will also take delivery of additional HAL Dhruvs and the weaponised Rudra variant, as well as additional Mil Mi-17V-5s, plus the first of 20 armed HAL Cheetaks for India’s Army Aviation Corps.

Commercial Aviation

The year to come will be critical for many Indian airlines, most of which are operating at a loss. Indian airlines operate fewer than 400 aircraft, although the number of carriers has grown in recent years, a trend that is expected to continue in the Asia-Pacific region, according to the International Air Transport Association’s forecast for 2014. Since September 2012 the government has permitted investment in Indian carriers by foreign airlines. India’s second largest airline, Jet Airways, announced in April last year that it was prepared to sell a 24% stake to Etihad Airways of Abu Dhabi,

although the sale was not concluded. Other Indian airlines are expected to conclude similar deals in 2014, bringing welcome investment and the opportunity for closer ties with foreign airlines and exposure to additional markets. The end of operations by low cost carrier Kingfisher Airlines in October 2012 prompted a price war between Jet Airways, SpiceJet IndiGo and GoAir and the flag carrier, Air India. This helped contributed to the poor financial results reported by many of the companies and came on top of a decrease in air travel caused by the general economic downturn. The only carrier to record a solid profit is IndiGo, which since August 2012 is the largest Indian airline by market share and the second fastest growing carrier in Asia. Unless Indian airlines can improve their profitability, it is likely some will suffer the same fate as Kingfisher, which had the second largest share of the domestic market shortly before its demise. AW2014 David Willis

India has scaled down its purchases of the fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) from around 250 to 144. Negotiations for research and development contracts are due to be completed in 2014

The first modernised Antonov An-32RE for the Indian Air Force, K2670, at Kiev-Gostomel, Ukraine. Oleg Belyakov/AirTeamImages

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South American Aviation Outlook

S

outh America’s economy has experienced impressive growth since 2000, but this is reflected only partly in the continent’s aviation’s development. While there’s expansion in the civil sector, budget cuts still constrain military air arms’ modernisation plans – a duality that will continue in 2014.

Argentina

In 2014 Argentina plans to start modernising its air force’s 11 Lockheed C-130B/H Hercules; continue producing the IA-73 UNASUR I, a primary/basic turboprop trainer intended to equip many of the air forces of the (Unión de Naciones Suramericanas, UNASUR, the Union of South American Nations) in the foreseeable future; upgrade two of Argentine Army Aviation’s three AS332B Super Pumas for Antarctic missions (one’s already been modernised); and install internal auxiliary fuel tanks to the army’s UH-1H Hueys. The

army also expects to receive 20 AB206s from the Italian Carabinieri (national military police), in exchange for eight retired aircraft – three Fiat G-222s and five Agusta A109As. Argentina wants new supersonic aircraft to replace the air force’s obsolete Mirage III, IAI M5 Finger and Mirage 5A Mara. But the budgetary situation is slowing the plans. Despite negotiations between Argentina and Spain over the latter’s Mirage F1s being transferred to South America, negotiations ended in late October 2013 without a deal being agreed. And, while upgrading the IA-63 Pampa advanced jet trainer with a full glass cockpit has been announced, there is as yet little progress.

Brazil

In Brazil, all new military aircraft and capabilities are managed under individual plans issued by each of the armed forces. In 2014, the air force is

scheduled to receive one of the KC-767s modified under the KCX2 programme; three examples of the modernised version of the AMX (locally called A-1M); the first examples of the A-Darter air-to-air missile (produced in a joint venture between Mectron and Denel of South Africa); and the Mectron/DCTA MAR-1 anti-radar missile, with its 100km (54nm) range. The first prototype of Brazil’s indigenous Embraer KC-390 transport aircraft is expected to fly by the end of 2014. Brazil’s Army Aviation will have its operational capability enhanced greatly in 2014 with the arrival of the first of 32 modernised Eurocopter SA365K Panther (designated in Brazil as the HM-1 Pantera). The HM-1 Pantera’s upgrade

has taken place under a programme known as RECOP (Recuperação da Capacidade Operacional, Operational Capability Recovery). The type will be operated by the army alongside the Eurocopter EC725 Caracal (designated locally as the HM-4 Jaguar). Brazilian Naval Aviation’s activities in 2014 will continue to focus on ongoing modernisation of the A-4KU (known locally as AF-1), the continued induction of 16 Caracals and the delivery of the first two (from an eight-aircraft order) Sikorsky S-70 Seahawk anti-submarine warfare helicopters.

Chile

Chile has strategic defence plans that cover

a 12year period. The current one extends until 2025, during which time the Chilean Government expects to spend between $7-11 billion on defence. However, plans to buy 12 advanced trainers to replace the Chilean Air Force’s eight CASA/ENAER A-36 Halcón II training/ light attack aircraft were cancelled due to financial restrictions. These constraints also lay behind the decisions not to buy a batch of former Royal Netherlands Air Force F-16s offered to Chile or new attack helicopters for the Chilean Army, which had studied acquiring the Eurocopter Tiger. Likewise, while there have been field evaluations with the Embraer EMB145AEW&C as Chile looks to replace the IAI Condor, the airborne early warning and control asset based on the Boeing 707 that’s served the air force since 1995, no decision

37

Santiago Rivas

has been taken about replacing the ageing aircraft.

Colombia

The only military hardware expected to be delivered to Colombia in 2014 is of an undisclosed quantity of Elbit Hermes 450 and 900 unmanned air vehicles. This contract also includes the provision of universal ground control stations and Elbit’s DCoMPASS surveillance payload. Colombia also expects to launch a military communications satellite in 2014. The country has requirements for a new light strike jet to replace the Colombian Air Force’s ageing A-37 Dragonflies and a new fighter to supersede the current Kfir C10/C12 force. In the latter requirement there’s interest in the F-16, which was shown extensively to the Colombian Air Force during 2013. Meanwhile, the Columbian Navy wants to increase its fleet of EADS CASA C295 Persuaders for maritime patrol duties and the country’s army wants

In Peru the main issue is the on-going modernisation of its air force’s MiG-29s to MiG-29SMT status, the contract for which was signed in May 2013. Peru also wants to upgrade its Su-25 Frogfoot fleet, acquire at least 24 armed transport helicopters (perhaps the Mil Mi17) and implement a modernised air defence system with Italian Spada 2000 surface-to-air missiles.

The carriers which dominate the continent’s air travel, Latam, AviancaTACA and Copa, each have a presence in more than their home markets. Latam, the merged LAN Chile and TAM Airlines and now South America’s largest airline, has a presence not only in Chile and Brazil (the respective home countries of LAN and TAM) but also, through subsidiaries, in Argentina, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia. AviancaTACA, the merged flag carriers of Colombia and El Salvador, dominate their respective home markets and have subsidiaries in Central American countries and Peru, while Copa operates in Colombia as well as its Panama base.

Venezuela

New Aircraft

more S-70i Blackhawks, having taken delivery of two in October 2013.

Peru

For 2014 Venezuela plans to acquire eight Chinese-made Harbin Z-9C helicopters for its navy, 18 AS 350B2 Ecureuils and 16 Enstrom 480B helicopters and nine Hongdu K-8W Karakorum light attack/trainer aircraft. A replacement for the F-16 is being analysed, with the country looking at Russian and Chinese options.

Airlines

Contrasting with the slow pace of the military forces’ evolution, South American airlines continue to grow quickly.

Many of these carriers will introduce new aircraft in 2014. As part of its LAN merger TAM will leave the Star Alliance in 2014 and join oneworld alongside its Chilean partner. TAM will also expand its A320 fleet next year (it has 22 on order, of which eight have been delivered, equipped with Sharklet fuel-saving wingtips) along with six Boeing 767-300ERs transferred from LAN to replace its A330s. These will be in service until TAM receives its new A350s later in the decade. In 2012 LAN became

the first Latin American Boeing 787 operator and it expects more Dreamliner deliveries in 2014 (it currently has 17 787-8s and 12 7879s on order). Avianca will receive a second ATR72-600 in 2014 as it continues the replacement of its Fokker 50s, which started in 2013, and new A320ceos and an A330 freighter. Other large airlines operating in the region are Aerolíneas Argentinas and Gol. Aerolíneas Argentinas continues with its modernisation plans, with orders for 20 Boeing 737-800s, four of which have been received, four Airbus A330-223s (two delivered) and two A340313s (already delivered). The new 737s will replace the airline’s 737-500s and part of the 737-700 fleet, while the A340s are superseding the Boeing 747-400 and A340-200. In Brazil Gol (which absorbed Varig), with a fleet composed entirely of 737-700s and -800s, is expecting to receive 35 extra -800s in the coming years. It’s also ordered 60 737 MAX jets for delivery towards the end of the decade. Currently the airline only operates domestic and regional flights, having abandoned its longrange plans for which it used a fleet of Boeing 767s. Sérgio Santana and Santiago Rivas AW2014

In 2014, the Brazilian Air Force is scheduled to receive one KC-767 tanker and three A-1Ms, the modernised version of the AMX

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Turkish Aviation Outlook T

he Turkish aerospace industry had a busy year in 2013. A number of ambitious projects passed important milestones, while several others experienced major delays and glitches, a side effect of the infancy of the country’s industry. Türk Havacılık ve Uzay Sanayii (Turkish Aerospace Industries) is the main contractor in the majority of Turkey’s military aerospace procurement projects. TAI is preparing to be listed on the Turkish stock exchange, Borsa Istanbul, an important step in making the TAI a global player in the aerospace market after being named among the top 100 defence

industry contractors.

Force Report

Due to the deteriorating situation in nearby Syria, the Türk Hava Kuvvetleri (Turkish Air Force, THK) was on a high level of alert throughout the year. The Syrian Air Force has been increasingly active in reconnaissance, surveillance and close air support operations near its border with Turkey. This has further raised tensions, which escalated in June 2012 when Turkey claimed one of its McDonnell Douglas RF-4E/TM Isik reconnaissance jets was shot down by Syrian air defences. In September 2013 a THK F-16 shot down a Syrian

Mi-17 helicopter that Turkey claims intruded its airspace. In the last quarter of the year the THK undertook more combat air patrols in the border region, with its aircraft occasionally intercepting Syrian Sukhoi Su-24 Fencers and Mil Mi-17s. With the deliveries of 30 F-16C/D Block 50+ aircraft complete, the THK is now equipped with 240 F-16s. More than 170 of the Block 40 and Block 50 aircraft already in service have received extensive avionics upgrades, in the Peace Onyx III project, to bring them to the same Block 50+ standard as the newer machines. Alongside the F-16s

the THK has nearly 50 F-4E2020 Terminator aircraft. The combat fleet is now being equipped with indigenous precision weapon systems, most notably the SOM standoff cruise missile and the HGK (Hassas Güdüm Kiti) GPS/inertial navigationguided bomb, both developed by TÜBiTAK. Flight tests of the ASELPOD targeting and navigation pod developed by ASELSAN have begun on an F-4E2020. Serial production of both SOM and ASELPOD is expected to start in 2014.

Anka

The $96.5 million project to develop the Anka (Phoenix) medium-

altitude long-endurance unmanned aircraft for the Turkish Armed Forces is one of the most vivid symbols of the Turkish defence industry’s ambitions. During 2013 initial military acceptance tests were completed on the Anka, leading in October to an order for ten series-production examples of the type, which will be designated Gözcü 2 when it enters THK service. Production will commence in the first quarter of 2014. TAI is also expected to start designing different versions of the Anka, equipped with synthetic aperture radar, electronic and signals intelligence sensors and CiRiT laser-

39

guided rockets. The company is also pitching the Anka to international markets, with hopes that Saudi Arabia will become the first export customer.

Hürkus

Another important development project is the Hürkus ¸ (Free Bird) turboprop trainer, which made its maiden flight in August. TAI is working on three versions: Hürkus ¸ A, the basic prototype certified to civilian standards; the Hürkus ¸B military trainer, and the armed Hürkus ¸ C version designed for counter insurgency and close air support. TAI has recently started contract negotiations with the Turkish Undersecretariat for Defence Industries for the production of 15 Hürkus ¸ Bs for the THK. It’s hoped these negotiations will be concluded in 2014 and a contract signed. The coming year will also see the maiden flight of the second test example of the Hürkus ¸ A.

T129

The ATAK T129 attack helicopter, being codeveloped by TAI and AgustaWestland, experienced considerable delays during 2013. The delivery of the first batch of nine helicopters, designated T129A, was postponed to 2014. Murad Bayar, head of Turkey’s Undersecretariat for Defence Industries (SSM), told IHS Jane’s that this was due to unsatisfactory performance results in acceptance tests. A total of 60 T129s will be delivered under a revised schedule. The T129 in 2013 meanwhile lost out to the Boeing AH-64E Guardian in its first export bid, namely for South Korea’s new attack helicopter contract. TAI’s ATAK marketing activities are now focused on Jordan, Azerbaijan and Pakistan.

Peace Eagle

Turkey’s most-delayed new equipment project is the Peace Eagle airborne early warning and control aircraft for the THK, developed by Boeing and fitted with the multi-mode electronically scanned array (MESA) radar system. Turkey and Boeing signed the $1.5 billion contract

back in 2002 and deliveries were planned to be completed in 2008. Delays prompted a revised delivery schedule and the commissioning of the first THK Peace Eagle in late 2013, but that has now slipped into 2014. Another project suffering delays is the three-phase Meltem maritime surveillance and patrol aircraft programme for the Turkish Navy (Türk Deniz Kuvvetleri, TDzK) and Coast Guard (Sahil Güvenlik Komutanlıgı, SGK). Meltem 1 covered the procurement of six CASA/TAI CN235M-100s for the TDzK and three for the SGK. Meltem 2 was the procurement of the Thales AMASCOS mission system and its integration into the aircraft. Finally, Meltem 3 was the acquisition of ten ATR-72-600s (to be designated ATR-72TMPA, or Turkish Maritime Patrol Aircraft) and their installation with the AMASCOS system. Integrating the AMASCOC into the CN235M-100 took longer than planned, with the first example only entering service with the TDzK in January 2013. And integrating the system into the ATRs has also proved troublesome, which led to the Meltem 3 contract’s revision. During the IDEF defence exhibition in Istanbul in May 2013, it was announced that Turkey’s order for ten ATR-72TMPAs downsized to eight. It was decided that the first two aircraft should instead be converted to cargo configuration without any specific maritime surveillance and patrol equipment. These two machines are now designated as ATR-72TMUAs (Turkish Maritime Utility Aircraft) and the first was delivered in July 2013. Integration work for the ATR-72TMPA will begin in 2014.

TFX Fighter

Working with Saab,

TAI has completed the conceptual design phase of TFX, Turkey’s indigenous fighter aircraft which will complement the THK’s future Lockheed Martin F-35A fleet and replace earlier blocks of the F-16. In 2014 it’s likely that the aircraft’s configuration will be selected from the three designs developed so far (a single-engine variant with canards, a conventional singleengine version and a twin-engine version) and preliminary design studies will be started. TAI exhibited the design alternatives for the TFX at the IDEF exhibition. The target is to fly TFX in the early 2020s.

model to be undertaken by TAI in Turkey. The newspaper quoted Babacan as saying: “Instead of developing [a new jet from scratch], we have decided to produce advanced technology in Turkey after [undertaking] an international search for a platform already in use. Local production is a priority for us.” TAI has previously discussed deals on joint production in Turkey with Bombardier and Embraer. Turkey plans to produce an indigenous regional jet with 60-120 seats by 2023 to coincide with the centenary of the founding of the Turkish Republic.

Civilian Developments

Turkey’s aerospace industry has been operating at an increased tempo since the early 2000s. The growth has been supported by the economic performance and the size of requirements of both civilian and military markets, but the process is not without problems, as evidenced by the schedule overruns on some projects. However, the industry and government seem to be focused on sustainability and industrialisation in the next decade. Starting in 2014, more investment will be made in infrastructure and supporting small- to medium-sized businesses in the supply chain of the major contractors such as TAI, and logistics, maintenance and repair operations in both civilian and military markets. To support the growth plans, it’s expected that more emphasis will be placed on exports of indigenous products. With its Anka, Hürkus¸ and T129, TAI is likely be particularly active in the international market because of the advantage of using Western technology and quality combined with the lower costs of production AW2014 in Turkey.

Turkey’s desire to be a major air travel centre was underlined in 2013 when tenders were issued for the construction of a new international airport in Istanbul, the third one after the existing Atatürk and Sabiha Gökçen hubs. The contract was signed in May and construction work has started, with the opening scheduled for 2016. Consistent with the plans to grow air travel in the country, flag carrier Turkish Airlines is expanding its fleet. In July it exercised an option for five Boeing 777-300ERs, increasing the order for the type to 20 and its total fleet size to 214. During 2014 there are expected to be further developments in the Turkish Ministry of Transportation’s aim to develop passenger airliner manufacturing capabilities in Turkey. The Zaman newspaper in October 2013 quoted Ali Babacan, deputy prime minister and responsible for the economy, as saying the country soon hopes to conclude an agreement with an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) for licence production or coproduction of an existing

Looking Ahead

TAI has completed the conceptual design phase of TFX, Turkey’s indigenous fighter aircraft, and in 2014 it’s likely that the aircraft’s configuration will be selected

from the three

designs

developed so far Top: A TAI Anka unmanned air vehicle in flight. Five prototypes have been built so far. Turkish Aerospace Industries Opposite: The Hürkus¸ turboprop trainer prototype TC-VCH seen landing after its maiden flight on August 29, 2013. Turkish Aerospace Industries

40

F

or US military aviation, 2014 is a wild card. The standoff in Congress over fiscal and defence policy and the year’s budget has created a great uncertainty for operations, maintenance, acquisition, research and development, test and evaluation. The US military weathered the first year of budget sequestration in fiscal year (FY) 2013. Mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011, sequestration removed $487 billion from the budget over ten years plus another $500 billion over ten years if Congress and President Barack Obama could not agree on deficit reduction. Sequestration hurt US airpower. The air force cut flying hours by 15% and the navy had to reduce flying hours to “tactical hard deck”, the minimum

level at which pilots could maintain basic proficiency. Services cancelled or delayed deployments and exercises. Overhauls of ships, aircraft and engines were delayed or cancelled. The services, able to shift funds from the 2012 continuing budget resolution to the 2013 budget, mitigated some sequestration effects, but no such cushion will be available in 2014, hence the greater anxiety among the service chiefs over the year’s budget. The 2014 budget sequestration will kick in and reap another $25 billion from the defence budget by mid-January, unless it is stopped or modified by Congress. The sequestration cuts equally across all programmes unless modified by approval of re-programming requests by the services. Ship

orders will be cancelled or delayed. Aircraft orders will be pared. Some units will be cut. Readiness in every respect will face challenges.

Air Force

The US Air Force is prioritising three programmes it sees as investments for the future viability of US airpower: the Boeing KC-46A tanker, the Lockheed Martin F-35A Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) and the Long Range Strike-Bomber (LRS-B). The KC-46A will make its first flight this year, while many F-35As are flying, training instructors and continuing development testing. The LRS-B has not been down-selected between competing designs. All three programmes have risks. The KC-46A has experienced past cost increases; the air force has

effectively bet the future of its fighter force on the F-35A and cost estimates for the LRS-B may be wildly optimistic – even by Pentagon standards. All these issues will have to be addressed in 2014. The air force had intended to procure 201 F-35As in the five fiscal years starting in 2014, but it is likely that 24 aircraft will be moved to the ‘outyears’. To afford the F-35A, the air force is cutting back on upgrades to other fighters, which will largely be limited to approximately 300 Lockheed Martin F-16C and F-16D Block 40, Block 50 and Block 52 fighters starting in 2017. Overall air force (and navy) air-to-air capability will be boosted by the Raytheon AIM-9X Block II missile, entering full rate production (FRP) in 2014, with 225 going to the air

force. Improved Raytheon AIM-120D AMRAAMs (advanced medium range air-to-air missiles) will also be delivered, with 199 also going to the air force. Next year will also see initial research and development investments on the F-X, concepts for sixth generation fighters that would enter service in the 2030s. For the remainder of the combat aircraft force, the coming year is expected to bring cuts in force structure, readiness, and funding. Last year’s cut of four combat-coded squadrons is likely to be exceeded by ‘vertical cuts’, removing entire aircraft types from service, which are being considered. Among the most probable targets are the Fairchild A-10C Warthog and Beechcraft MC-12W Liberty. Because many of these

US Military Aviation Outlook

aircraft are operated (or will be operated) by the air national guard, with strong political allies in Congress and among grass roots America, these cuts are going to be politically costly, but may prove to be inevitable. If 2014’s funding is provided through a continuing resolution, rather than – as is required by law – Congressional passage of authorisation and appropriation bills, this will impact a number of programmes through freezing spending at prior-year levels. The largest is the Combat Rescue Helicopter (CRH), a replacement for the current Sikorsky HH-60G Pave Hawks. Without funding and Congressional action, the air force can procure neither CRH – likely to be an upgraded Pave Hawk offered by a Sikorsky–Lockheed Martin

team – or extend the life of current equipment. The multi-service Multi-Year Procurement (MYP) for Lockheed Martin C-130J Hercules-series aircraft, projected to yield 9.5% savings in procurement costs, is also a probable postponement casualty of continuing resolution. Air force unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) are transitioning from achieving the May 2014 goal of building a 65-CAP (24-hour combat air patrol) force structure (marked by the procurement of 12 General Atomics MQ-9 Reapers in 2014) to a smaller force able to survive more lethal threats likely in the Western Pacific. The Northrop Grumman RQ4A Global Hawk Block 30 is expected to remain in service despite the air force’s 2012 goal to make it the first ‘vertical

cut’. The air force is also considering the Block 40 version of the Global Hawk as a potential cut; neither version will be part of the year’s budget request for new-build aircraft. The air force may bring one of its ‘black world’ classifiedprogramme high-altitude low-observable UAVs into the ‘purple world’ in the coming year. The air force will maintain 301 strategic airlift aircraft (following the retirement of six Lockheed C-5A Galaxy jets in 2013) and 358 intra-theatre aircraft transports – a Congressionally imposed level – now that all the Alenia C-27J Spartans are gone from air force and air national guard service. Deliveries of upgraded C-5Ms will continue and the air force plans to retire 16 Boeing KC-

135R tankers during the year. The Boeing E-3G Block 40/45 AWACS (airborne warning and control system) upgrade programme will continue, but lack of funding is preventing the air force from modernising or replacing its Boeing E-8C Joint STARS (Surveillance and Target Acquisition Radar System) aircraft. Air Force Special Operations Command will complete replacement of its older Lockheed AC-130H gunships with new AC-130Js. The air force also added funding to buy four additional Lockheed Martin MC130J Commando II aircraft and begin upgrades of the MC-130W Combat Spear fleet. The final tiltrotor Boeing-Bell CV-22 Ospreys will be procured in FY2014 and delivered in 2016, bringing the US Air Force strength up to 51.

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Sequestration hurt US airpower. The air force cut flying hours by 15% and the navy had to reduce flying hours to “tactical hard deck”, the minimum level at which pilots could maintain basic proficiency.

An A-10C Thunderbolt II conducts close-air support training on the Barry Goldwater range near Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Arizona. The A-10C, this aircraft is assigned to the 188th Fighter Wing, Arkansas Air National Guard based at Ebbing Air National Guard Base, is one of the types that could face the ‘vertical cut’ amid budget constraints. US Air Force

Naval Aviation The US Navy will face a significant drop in readiness if the sequestration goes ahead unmodified. The Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Jonathan Greenert, has declared that if sequestration continues in 2014 the navy will be able to have just one carrier strike group and one amphibious ready group available for surge, rather than the normal three of each. Five carrier air wings – a total of 40 squadrons – would have to reduce their flying hours to “tactical hard deck.” Delivery of the first of a new class of aircraft carrier, Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), could be delayed beyond its currently scheduled time frame in 2016. The navy was able to shift funding to avoid delay of the refuelling and complex overhaul (RCOH)

of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and extend its life to 50 years. The previous RCOH recipient, USS Theodore Roosevelt, was able to re-join the fleet in 2013. However, continued sequestration could threaten the RCOH of the next carrier, USS George Washington. Greenert has said that sequestration for the full 10 years could force the navy to reduce its carriers from 11 to eight or nine hulls. The news is not all bad. The first of a new class of amphibious assault ship, America (LHA 6), will be commissioned in 2014. The first two ships of the class will not have well decks but will be optimised for aviation, especially for the F-35B

Lightning II and the MV-22B Osprey tiltrotor transport. The budget situation for naval aircraft is also in flux. Greenert said the navy could lose 25 aircraft from the 2014 procurement plan if sequestration continues. The assistant commandant of the marine corps, Gen John Paxton, said the service will look at de-activating some squadrons if sequestration forces it to reduce its level of ground troops to 174,000 from the requirement of 186,800. The navy’s ten carrier air wings will see constraints in flight hours but will continue to support close air support and C4ISR in Afghanistan. There will be no major

changes in equipment or composition. The F/A-18E/F Super Hornet will increasingly dominate the composition of the carrier air wing. From an original goal of one F/A-18E and one F/A-18F squadron per wing, for a total of 20 Super Hornet squadrons, the navy now has 34 squadrons and will convert at least two more F/A-18C units to the newer types in 2014. This development is a result of delays in the F-35C Lightning II programme and the numbers of F/A18C Hornets approaching their fatigue-life maximum. The F-35C will continue testing throughout the year, highlighted by carrier landing trials. The F-35C has been delivered to the fleet readiness squadron, Strike Fighter Squadron 101 (VFA-101) ‘Grim Reapers’, at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida. VFA-101 will continue to train instructors as it prepares for its first class of students. The EA-18G Growler electronic attack aircraft will continue to replace the EA-6B Prowler in navy electronic attack (VAQ) squadrons, with two more units scheduled to convert in 2014. The navy has requested the authority in its budget to establish two more expeditionary

VAQ squadrons, VAQ-143 and VAQ-144, in 2015 and 2016, respectively. The E-2D Advanced Hawkeye will begin service in 2014 in an operational fleet squadron, Carrier Airborne Early Warning Squadron 121 (VAW-121) ‘Bluetails’, on track to reach initial operational capability in 2015. Transitions of SH-60B and SH-60F squadrons to the MH-60R and MH-60S, respectively, will continue. Transitions of P-3C Orion squadrons to the P-8A Poseidon will resume in late 2014 after a hiatus to allow production to catch up to meet the requirement. Three patrol squadrons – VP-16, VP-5, and VP-45 – completed transition in 2013, and the next three units will also follow at Naval Air Station Jacksonville, Florida. The navy will send the MQ-8B Fire Scout vertical takeoff unmanned aerial vehicle on a littoral combat ship for an extended deployment for the first time in mid2014. The navy also will stand-up its first Triton unit, Unmanned Patrol Squadron 19 (VUP-19) at NAS Jacksonville, late in the year, while the MQ4C Triton goes through testing at NAS Patuxent River, Maryland. The marine corps’ F-35B training unit,

Marine Fighter Attack Training Squadron 501 (VMFAT-501) ‘Warlords’, will re-locate from Eglin Air Force Base to Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Beaufort, South Carolina in January 2014. The first operational F-35B squadron, Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 121 (VMFA-121) ‘Green Knights’, will continue training from its base at MCAS Yuma, Arizona. The marine corps will continue to transition CH46E Sea Knight squadrons to the MV-22B Osprey in 2014, and will continue fielding of the AH-1Z Viper to replace the AH-1W Super Cobra gunship. The Coast Guard budget submission stunned observers because it did not request any new aircraft procurement. The aircraft most affected is the EADS HC-144A Ocean Sentry, 18 of which have been ordered of 36 planned (15 had been delivered by 2013, with three more scheduled for 2014). The congressional committees plan to add funding for future aircraft procurement but no decisions had been reached by early December 2013. The Commandant of the Coast Guard, Admiral Robert Papp Jr, has expressed interest in acquiring 21 C-27J transports discarded by the air force to avoid funding the remaining 18 yet-to-be ordered HC-144As. But, at the

time of going to press, no progress for the Coast Guard had been made. The Coast Guard will complete the modification of the last three MH60 Jayhawk rescue helicopters to the MH-60T configuration, bringing the number of MH-60Ts to 42. Conversion of MH-65Cs to MH-65Ds will continue as the service develops the next version, the MH-65E. The last three HU-25 Guardian maritime patrol jets in service, all HU-25D models, based at Coast Guard Air Station Corpus Christi, Texas, will be retired in 2014 – finishing a 30-year career for the type. In August the service will take delivery of the first Sikorsky (formerly Schweizer) RU-38B maritime covert surveillance aircraft, which then will go through an operational evaluation.

Army

Army aviation will reduce its extensive commitments in Afghanistan. It will have to reset its forces at the same time as absorbing large-scale budget cuts. General Raymond Odierno, the army chief of staff, said: “In our aviation programme, we cannot afford to procure a new Armed Aerial Scout (AAS) programme and we will be forced to reduce the production and modernisation of 25 helicopters. We will reduce system upgrades for unmanned aerial vehicles.” Yet

despite these cuts the army’s budget for 2014 has largely protected helicopter funding to keep programmes alive while investing in future technology. The likely negative decision on the AAS helicopter programme means the army will upgrade its current force of Bell OH-58D Kiowa Warriors to OH58F standard instead of procuring a new scout helicopter. Under current planning, the 2014 buy of ten EADS North America UH-72 Lakotas, for utility and training missions, will be the last, ending that programme at 345 helicopters. The army will continue to field the Boeing AH-64E Guardian attack helicopter, with 42 AH-64Ds being remanufactured as AH64Es in 2014. Sikorsky UH-60M and HH-60M Blackhawk modernisation (65 helicopters) will continue, as will Boeing CH-47F Chinook MYP (28 helicopters, of which six are new builds, the remainder remanufactured). As with the other services, the army is planning to invest in developing future capabilities, in the form of the Joint MultiRole (JMR) rotorcraft technology demonstration programme, with new multi-rotor helicopter and tiltrotor types being designed. The increased importance of army

UAVs will be shown by procurement of 15 General Atomics MQ-1C Gray Eagles and three modular platoon sets of equipment. Among army fixedwing aircraft, the Beechcraft-Boeing RC12S Enhanced Medium Altitude Reconnaissance and Surveillance System (EMARSS) will enter service with four engineering and manufacturing development aircraft in 2014. It remains uncertain how many will be built. The army is planning to supplement the EMARSS with 14 operational Beechcraft RC-12X Guardrails and upgraded De Havilland Canada EO-5C Airbome Reconnaissance Low multi-spectral intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft. Rick Burgess AW2014 and David Isby

Above: An aviation boatswain’s mate signal for forward movement of an E-2D Advanced Hawkeye, assigned to Air Test and Evaluation Squadron 1 (VX-1) ‘Pioneers’, on the TC-7 catapult at NAS Patuxent River, Maryland. The E-2D will begin service in 2014 with Carrier Airborne Early Warning Squadron 121 (VAW-121) ‘Bluetails’ based at Naval Station Norfolk, Virginia. Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Kenneth Abbate/US Navy Opposite top: Conversion of US Coast Guard MH-65Cs to MH-65Ds will continue as the service develops the next version, the MH-65E. Scott Dworkin

Below: The US Army is planning to supplement the Beechcraft-Boeing RC-12S Enhanced Medium Altitude Reconnaissance and Surveillance System with 14 operational Beechcraft RC-12X Guardrails shown here. Kevin Boydston/AirTeamImages

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From EADS to Airbus

D

uring an interview with the author EADS chief Tom Enders provided an overview of the group’s activities in the Asia-Pacific region and gave an update on several programmes and competitions, from A350 flight test progress to the fighter competition in South Korea. From January 1, 2014, EADS will be known as the Airbus Group following a strategic review of the business in the middle of the year. This will result in Eurocopter changing its name to Airbus Helicopters, and Astrium, Cassidian and Airbus Military being grouped together as Airbus Defence and Space.

What’s in a Name? According to Enders, the strategic review concluded that the existing EADS name did not accurately reflect the business done by its constituent companies, whereas the Airbus brand was well known throughout the world. “We’re here to stay and we want to further

grow our commercial and defence business, so we have decided to use the Airbus brand across the entire group,” Enders said. “EADS was always a little bit unwieldy and had a political connotation, being European and Aerospace Defence. To add insult to injury the Americans always pronounce it ‘EEDS’ which sounds like a serious disease! “The review has also concluded that we should give up the notion of having a balance between defence and commercial. We thought it was becoming unrealistic, particularly because defence, at least in Europe and North America, is shrinking. So it’s a good thing to have roughly 80% of your revenue coming from commercial and 20% from defence. “That does not mean that we will shed defence. The consolidated defence and space business is not small, it is the largest defence business in Europe. However, it makes no sense to split commercial from military helicopters.”

Current Business The EADS group grew 30% in revenue and 40% in order backlog between 2008 and 2012. According to Tom Enders the current back log, largely due to the Airbus commercial range, is between 5,200 and 5,300 aircraft and valued at over €500 billion. “Airbus has done quite well in the last ten years,” said the EADS chief. “ In 2000 we had roughly 30% of the overall in-service fleet of aircraft greater than one hundred seats and we’re now around 40%. “If we look at numbers in service and the order back log we’re looking at 47% for Airbus and 53% for Boeing, so we are catching up slowly but steadily.” In Australia the group is the second largest supplier of aircraft to the Australian Defence Force, largely through the Tiger and MRH 90 helicopter programmes of Eurocopter subsidiary Australian Aerospace, and Airbus military with the KC-30A Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT). “We were the third-

largest Australian defence group in 2012, thanks to Australian Aerospace, and the largest helicopter supplier to the ADF,” said Tom Enders. “In the commercial world over 70% of the commercial turbine helicopter market is covered by us and we are almost on-par with the market leader, Bell Helicopters. We have around 41% of the market and Bell has 46%. We are servicing more than 500 helicopters throughout Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific. “So we are looking at a picture of really dynamic growth in Australia. In 2000 we had 45 employees. As of 2013 there are more than 1,300, and revenue of around 700 million Australian dollars. In addition, we estimate that we have created another 2,500 indirect jobs.”

A350 Flight Test

Enders also used the opportunity to update the media on the A350 flight test programme, speaking only hours before the maiden flight of the second aircraft on

October 14. “The A350 is a bit behind the Boeing 787 in terms of schedule and I’m very happy that it is,” he said. “Because it has allowed us to pick up on some of the problems our competitor had. It’s a great aeroplane and we’ve been on schedule for more than a year, and that means something in the advanced phase of the programme. We have done more than 300 hours in a very short time with one aircraft. “Eventually there will be five aircraft [in the test fleet] and we’re on track for certification and delivery of the first aircraft at the end of 2014.” Enders cautioned against over-optimism, though, pointing to the problems encountered by the A380 during its development in the middle part of the decade. “The A350 looks good, but as everybody knows in the business of developing systems, be it aircraft or engines or both, you should not assume too early that you are over the hill. There’s always the unexpected

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that can hit you and as someone who waded through the A380 crisis in 2005, 2006 and 2007, I’m always very cautious. But one thing is clear from the flight test results so far, it’s going to be a great aircraft and our customers will love it.”

A380 Super Jumbo

Following a very quiet period for A380 sales, Emirates’ order for a further 50 super jumbos announced at the Dubai air show on November 17 confirmed what Enders told the author in October: “The aircraft has a great deal of development potential and sales success, driven in part by global aviation trends towards larger aircraft as air traffic congestion worsens. I strongly believe that it will be a great instrument, particularly for airlines on long distance, and hub to hub routes.” Enders said Airbus was currently studying options for further development of the A380, but described the A380-800 as a ‘tremendous money-making machine’ for airlines.

“Of course you have to be able to fill it. If you fly an A380 with a 50% load factor you have a problem, that’s clear,” he detailed. “So you have to fly with a strong load factor and at a high frequency rate and then it’s a wonderful machine. But it is just the first version, so there is potential to do structural things with it, engine options, etc.”

The Future

The EADS chief estimates a market for more than 30,000 new airliners worth more than four trillion US dollars over the next 20 years, 60% of which will be single aisle aircraft. Much of the growth will be driven by low cost carriers in the Asia-Pacific region. “We have more than 2,400 orders for our A320neo now and it is very much sought after, particularly in South East Asia. If you look at the new orders with a broad brush, 60% are for growth and 40% are for replacement,” he explained. “So it’s predominantly generated by growth.

The low cost airlines have a huge part in that, more and more in Europe but also in Asia, and recently also in Australia.” The recent Japan Air Lines’ order for 31 A350s is seen by Enders as an important breakthrough into a market which has so far been difficult for the European plane maker to penetrate. “Japan has been one of the few large markets where we have a very limited market share. We have sold some single aisle aircraft to low cost airlines but we’ve never had an order from JAL. It’s one of two flag carriers, which is important, and it’s also the largest order for the A350 so far in 2013,” he enthused. “So that is a breakthrough into the wide-body Japanese flag carrier market and we hope that other players will then see that it’s worthwhile to entertain competition and to look seriously at Airbus products in the future.” From a military standpoint, Enders points to the co-operative development between

Eurocopter and Korean Aerospace Industries on the KUH-1 Surion twin–engine utility helicopter as an example of partnerships with local industries. EADS has offered to help develop a Korean indigenous fighter aircraft, if Typhoon is successful in the rerun of the F-X III fighter competition originally won by the Boeing F-15SE Silent Eagle. “I believe the competition is still running, but they have taken a break in the bidding process and as part of our offer of Typhoon we have also offered to help them develop a new fighter aircraft they plan to build,” he said. Finally Enders warned that governments should not place burdens on the airline industry. “The industry is a very strong factor in creating growth in our countries but if you milk the cow too much – and this has never been a very fat cow in the first place – then obviously you can easily kill the industry or make it uncompetitive,” he concluded. AW2014 Nigel Pittaway

“The A380 has a great deal of development potential and sales success, driven in part by global aviation trends towards larger aircraft as air traffic congestion worsens. I strongly believe that it will be a great instrument, particularly for airlines on long distance, and hub to hub routes.” EADS chief Tom Enders

EADS chief Tom Enders spoke with author during a recent visit to Australia. EADS Main: Emirates’ November 17 order for 50 additional A380s was a massive boost for the super jumbo’s order book. Tom Kool/ AirTeamImages

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Issues of UK Air Transport W

Keith Bincow/AirTeamImages

ho’d have thought it? At the back end of 2010 the Con-Lib Dem government was six months into its job of pulling Britain out of recession on the basis of a coalition agreement that brought little cheer to the nation’s air transport industry. Three years on things have changed and here’s Darren Caplan, chief executive of the Airport Operators Association, with the ‘o’ word: “The UK aviation sector is in a better position than it was three years ago when the government came to power. “Despite the challenges ahead senior aviation players are more optimistic about the future.” Even the previously dour Willie Walsh has cause to smile. The chief executive of International Airlines Group admits: “Aviation policy is better today than it was three years ago.”

Davies Commission

The source of this optimism is the Airports Commission. A year ago the body, under Sir Howard Davies, appointed by the government to investigate

Britain’s need for hub airport capacity had barely started. Its interim report, never mind a final one, seemed a long way off. But such is the progress the commission appears to be making the grimaces are turning to smiles. There may still be sceptics who believe the commission is just a device to dig David Cameron and his Conservatives out of a tricky political hole following their rejection of major airport development. However, there were sighs of relief when Davies lifted the veil on the commission’s thinking. Its provisional conclusion, he said in October, was that “we will need some additional net runway capacity in the south east of England in the coming decades.” Failure to provide it, he added, would “produce a distinctly sub-optimal solution for passengers, connectivity and the economy.” But Davies’ assertion that this new capacity will need to be provided alongside “an overall framework for managing emissions growth if we are to deliver the best outcomes in both

environmental and connectivity terms” is unlikely to appease those who oppose expansion. Zac Goldsmith, MP for Richmond Park and co-author of a report which helped change Conservative policy and overturn decades of support for air transport development, is vehemently opposed to Heathrow expansion. Goldsmith believes the arrival of new long-range twin-engined airliners overturns the case for “mega-hub” airports. He says government figures showing that in 2014 12,000 next-generation Boeing and Airbus aircraft will be using London’s airports, rising to 105,000 in 2024. “This signals a dramatic technological shift that moves us away from the traditional hub and spoke model, and towards one where air travel, even over very long distances, is primarily non-stop. It absolutely blows apart the case for a mega hub, and strengthens the case for a constellation of competing airports each with improved transport links connecting them to central London,” Goldsmith told a Your Local Guardian website

reporter. Clearly this suggests that airport development is likely to rise up the political agenda in 2014 once more. Speculation about the Airport Commission’s final report, due after the 2015 General Election, is likely to become even more intense during the year. Indeed, with Davies thought to be keen to deliver the report sooner rather than later, prepublication leaks cannot be ruled out. Some observers are wondering why, if Davies has already reached a conclusion, it’s necessary to wait for another 18 months. It’s a pronouncement that seems not to have reduced the flow of ideas about future airports. In November, a scheme called Heathrow Hub was the subject of a series of full-page advertisements in major national newspapers. The idea, being fronted by former Concorde pilot Capt Jock Lowe, calls for the runways to be doubled in length to increase capacity. And the Thames estuary proposal, supported by London’s Mayor Boris Johnson, has moved up a gear with a new name – Britannia

Airport – and six-runways. Promoters claim it could be built within seven years of getting the goahead. A parallel issue is regional air links with London. As the economy looks set to improve during 2014 further arguments for the restoration of links lost because of the pressure on London’s runways may also be expected. Laurie Price, consultant and adviser to the All-Party Aviation Group, argues that over the last 30 years services between Heathrow and 20 UK points have been lost and frequency and competition on others reduced. Only seven regional links remain. “The situation is dire,” Price notes. Fresh concerns have surfaced with flybe’s announcement that it is to axe 500 jobs. The regional carrier had already made public the sale of its Channel Islands slots from Gatwick airport. As a result easyJet will increase its services to Jersey from summer 2014. Air passenger duty (APD) has been a contentious issue since it was introduced and rate

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increases by successive governments have raised the temperature further. Senior industry figures have criticised The Treasury’s approach to APD and may be expected to continue lobbying the government on the grounds that the tax is handing overseas competitors, like the Netherlands and Eire, a big advantage. APD was introduced originally to help offset aviation’s impact on the environment but the industry argues that this should be done on an international basis. In 2012 the European Union announced it was stopping the clock on its controversial decision to include inter-continental flights in its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). It hoped this would demonstrate a commitment to a multilateral process overseen by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). But, in a series of heated debates at its general assembly in October, the United Nations body has rejected the EU’s right to continue charging airlines under

its ETS. Instead, ICAO members have agreed a global market-based mechanism to reduce aviation emissions to take effect in 2020. The resolution calls for it to be developed in time for the next assembly in 2016. The message is clear: there can be no further delay in efforts to halt, or even reverse, the effects of manmade climate change. But it’s clear there’s no unanimity on the issue so further debate can be expected during 2014 as ICAO member states come to grips with this contentious issue. Meanwhile, as growth returns air transport will re-discover its need for personnel, particularly pilots and engineers. The industry will probably require 500,000 pilots worldwide. The general aviation sector is recognised as the provider of this vital human seed corn and it’s hoped that the UK could become a centre of excellence for flying and engineering training. But, warns Laurie Price, “only if we create the right environment”. Price, a private pilot, has been appointed to chair a

committee to recommend ways of revitalising the sector by stripping away unnecessary bureaucracy. The industry regulator, the Civil Aviation Authority, has already set up a new unit dedicated to proportionate regulation of the sector and now the Challenge Panel is expected to produce an interim report in January 2014, with a final version in April. Expect fireworks. As Price says: “I’m not afraid to tread on toes.” He adds: “Maybe, we could do something really quite good for the air transport industry and, hopefully, for the UK economy.” In the US a key issue is the proposed merger of American Airlines and US Air to create the world’s biggest airline. Regulatory approval could make 2014 an important year for the carriers involved. In August the US Justice Department initiated a law suit to stop the £6.9 billion merger on the grounds that it would reduce competition. But Attorney General Eric Holder says that what’s now been agreed would ensure more competition on non-stop and connecting routes throughout the US. And transatlantic

partners Delta Air Lines and Virgin Atlantic could also become closer in 2014. From the start of the summer season Delta passengers will join their Virgin counterparts in Heathrow Terminal 3’s Clubhouse. Delta’s Seattle, New York and Boston services will move to the airport’s Central Area. The airlines say that by combining their slots they can maximise customer convenience, particularly for business travellers. Some observers, however, point to the fact that the EU-US Open Skies arrangements, started in 2008, left some unfinished business. They point to the imbalance in ownership rules which allow Delta, for example, to own 49% of Virgin but which restrict a foreign company to control 25% of a US airline. They suggest there’s latitude for further negotiation except that what the US airlines most want is increased access to Heathrow. So whatever happens in 2014, it seems unlikely they’ll achieve this, no matter what the Airports Commission recommends – or when. Bruce Hales-Dutton AW2014

“We will need some additional net runway capacity in the south east of England in the coming decades,” Sir Howard Davies, Chair - Airports Commission

Nathan Zalcman/AirTeamImages

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The World Airline Industry in 2014

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n the heels of quite a good year, the airline industry is likely to have an even better one in 2014. That is the opinion of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the trade association which represents most of the world’s major airlines. In its official 2014 forecast, released on September 23, IATA predicted that while the world’s airlines would achieve a combined net profit of $11.7 billion in 2013 (revised from $12.7 billion because second quarter traffic growth was slower than expected), in 2014 they would easily beat that figure. According to Genevabased IATA, improving consumer and business

confidence should translate to an overall global increase in gross domestic product of 2.7% in 2014 – “which has a direct impact on airline profitability”. Additionally, a forecast slight drop in oil prices in 2014 (to an average price per barrel of $105 for Brent Crude, from a $109 average expected for 2013) as a result of reduced geopolitical tensions and an improved US energy outlook should help airlines manage to keep their fuel costs under control. Indeed, IATA reckons the 2014 average Brent Crude oil price – a widely used global index – would drop below $100 per barrel were it not for the OPEC

cartel, which is keeping prices artificially high by controlling its supply. Overall, IATA forecasts that the world’s airlines will produce 5.8% passenger traffic growth – in terms of tonnekilometres performed (TKPs) – in 2014, compared with the 5.0% growth it expected them to achieve in 2013. IATA’s relatively arcane TKP forecasts for the two years translate into 3.12 billion passengers expected in 2013 and 3.295 billion passengers forecast in 2014. Cargo traffic growth won’t do quite as well as passenger traffic growth in either year, according to IATA. Although the economies of most

leading developed nations have recovered strongly and are showing encouraging growth (particularly the massive US economy), this is being offset in part by a slowdown in growth in the economies of some key emerging nations, such as Brazil and India. This slowdown has done much to dampen cargo traffic growth in 2013. IATA estimates that cargo TKPs for 2013 will increase just 0.9% over 2012 – when total cargo traffic declined from the 2011 figure. However, 2013 will represent the first year of cargo growth since 2010, when the cargo market grew for the first time since the world economic crisis of 2008.

Additionally, 2014 should outdo 2013 for cargo growth, according to IATA, which is forecasting an overall growth rate of 3.8% in cargo TKPs for the year. Its 2013 and 2014 TKP forecast figures for cargo carried translate, respectively, to 51.8 million tonnes and 53.6 million tonnes.

Airline Profits Should Increase in 2014

IATA forecasts that the world’s airlines will achieve a combined net profit of $16.4 billion in 2014 – $4.7 billion more than in 2013. North American carriers will lead the way, their newfound capacity discipline producing very high load

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factors and an expected combined net profit of $6.3 billion. Much of this profit will come from growth on international routes – particularly transatlantic sectors. Three monopoly-proof joint ventures involving the largest US and European members of the three major global alliances now control most of the traffic between the biggest US gateway cities and the largest European hub airports. Unlike airlines in other

parts of the world, North American carriers will see their yields improve in 2014, according to IATA which also noted that this will buck the trend for the rest of the industry. Overall, global passenger revenue yield will fall by 0.5% and cargo yield decline by 2.1% in 2014, the association estimates. Within the overall yield-decline picture, however, airlines in some regions of the world will do quite well. IATA reckons European airlines will nearly

double their combined net profit by achieving a $3.1 billion surplus, although even this will only represent a 1.9% return on sales, before interest and tax. AsiaPacific carriers will “see a modest improvement in profitability to $3.6 billion”, on the back of improved cargo performance, continuing growth in the Chinese domestic market and benefits from the restructuring of Japanese companies, among them Japan Airlines.

Meanwhile, Middle East carriers should post a $2.1 billion net profit, their highest ever as a group. This is partly because Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways has recently become profitable for the first time since its formation. Latin American airlines should see their combined net profitability rise to $1.1 billion and Africa’s carriers look set to achieve a $100 million net profit as a group, according to IATA. But lest airlines begin to feel complacent,

IATA forecasts that the world’s airlines will achieve a combined net profit of $16.4 billion in 2014 – $4.7 billion more than in 2013

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Steve Flint/AirTeamImages

Bailey/AirTeamImages

Europix/AirTeamImages

IATA has some words of caution. The association calculates that the $16.4 billion forecast profit for 2014 represents just a 5.2% return on invested capital. “That remains significantly below the industry’s weighted average cost of capital, which is hovering between 7% and 8%,” says IATA. In plain English, this means that even if the airline industry earns as much as IATA thinks it will in 2014, as a group it still isn’t close to being able to generate enough cash to pay the interest on the loans and other financial instruments it employs to pay for the aircraft and other equipment it uses. As IATA Director General Tony Tyler pointed out in a speech in September, the industry’s 2014 expected net profit could vanish easily as a result of any number of factors – particularly the sorts which have notoriously affected the airline industry in the past. “A $16.4 billion profit for transporting some 3.3 billion passengers means that airlines will retain an average of about $5.00 per passenger,” Tyler noted. “That very simple calculation demonstrates that even a small

change in the operating environment – a new tax or other cost increase, for example – could change the outlook quite significantly.”

Merger Defections from Star to oneworld

Within the overall airline industry environment in 2014, a number of key trends and events are likely to become evident. For instance, the growth of the three major global airline alliances continues apace, though the Star Alliance – the largest and the one with most member carriers – seems certain to see its traffic growth cut back in 2014 as a result of the defection of two very large members, US Airways and TAM Airlines. As a result of mergers with other airlines – TAM Airlines with the LAN Airlines Group to form LATAM, Latin America’s largest airline group, and US Airways with American Airlines, to form the world’s largest carrier – both TAM and US Airways are set to add their considerable market presences and route networks to the oneworld network. This should not only give oneworld an

almost unassailable market position in South America, but also bolster strongly its presence in every US city east of the Mississippi River, traditionally seen as the dividing line between the Eastern and Western US. Adding US Airways’ considerable US domestic presence both east and west of the Mississippi – US Airways has a large hub at Phoenix International Airport – should also help oneworld feed much more traffic to its members’ transatlantic and transpacific flights.

Following the Money

But it isn’t just routes within and between countries in the developed world that will see considerable traffic growth in 2014. Asked where most traffic growth is likely to occur Craig Jenks, president of New York aviation consulting firm Airline/Aircraft Projects, says: “Follow the money.” Jenks notes – as a front-page article in the Wall Street Journal reported on November 19 – that international flows of remittances from immigrant workers to their families back home are growing much more strongly from nontraditional outflow nations than they are from the US. The article points out that, although the US will remain the largest remittance-outflow nation for the foreseeable future due to continued immigration from Mexico and Central America, immigrants’ remittances from nations such as Chile, Brazil and Panama to countries such as Colombia are growing much faster than from the US. Asia is also seeing this phenomenon: remittances from Malaysia to India are also increasing at a high rate, for instance. In some cases, within the space of five years, countries which were net receivers of remittances have become net exporters of such payments as their economies have grown strongly and immigrants have flocked to take jobs which needed to be filled. This worldwide spread of immigration to fastgrowing emerging nations rather than developed countries (whose economies are growing

only relatively slowly and are making immigration increasingly difficult for many categories of workers) is creating large new air transport markets. Jenks says the airlines themselves, particularly low cost carriers, are playing an active part in developing the widening diaspora, making the situation a truly “chicken and egg” phenomenon. Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary has pointed out that the huge influx of Polish workers to the UK came about in large part because Ryanair had opened new air routes to the Eastern European country from the UK and these enabled Polish people to travel easily between the countries. Poles couldn’t have got to Britain so easily by train. Now, the large Polish population in the UK is creating a need for more routes linking secondary cities in the UK and Poland.

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GLOBAL COMMERCIAL AIRLINE PROFITABILITY

Airline industry operating margins will average 4% in 2014, forecasts IATA, the best since 2010 although not as good as that year. Net income is expected to rise to $16.4 billion next year. IATA

AIRLINE NET POST-TAX PROFIT MARGINS

The American Airlines-US Airways Merger

Going into 2014, the biggest single airline event is the completion of the merger between US Airways and American Airlines upon the latter’s emergence from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The merged carriers are retaining the American Airlines name (though the new American will be led primarily by executives from US Airways) and will become the largest airline in the world in terms of fleet size and passengers carried. Today, American and US Airways boast a combined mainline fleet of 958 aircraft. Although US Airways doesn’t have a lot of aircraft on order, American Airlines does: its orders and commitments for Airbus A320-family and Boeing 737-family jets alone total 925 aircraft. American also has 19 Boeing 777-300ERs and up to 100 Boeing 787s on order; and US Airways has orders outstanding for 22 Airbus A350 XWBs and 17 A321s. Taking into account the large fleets of US Airways’ and American’s regionalairline subsidiaries and partners (which include up to 94 Embraer 175s ordered by American Eagle franchisee Republic Airways), the total American Airlines network fleet may well exceed 1,500 aircraft once the merger is completed.

North America airlines will become the most profitable regional group in 2014, followed by Asia-Pacific and Europe which are both expected to generate profit next year. IATA

RETURN ON CAPITAL INVESTED IN AIRLINES AND THEIR COST OF CAPITAL

Returns on invested capital are on an improving trend and IATA’s forecast for airline industry profits implies an average return on capital employed of 5.2% in 2014. IATA

Although the US Department of Justice (DoJ) had monopolies concerns about the planned merger, these “anti-trust” issues were resolved when US

Airways and American agreed to divest a sizable number of slots at key airports including, among others, Washington’s Ronald Reagan National Airport and New York

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LaGuardia Airport. The DoJ wants the slots to go to low cost carriers, but Delta Air Lines has asked for some; time will tell which airlines get them.

Dominating the US East Coast

Steve Flint/AirTeamImages

Despite the slot divestments, Jenks thinks US Airways will bring American Airlines and oneworld substantial

market presence in secondary US cities, particularly east of the Mississippi, that they didn’t have before. American has long had a sizable transatlantic gateway operation at New York JFK, but it has never operated a large connecting domestic network there. This won’t change much, because JFK is a slot-restricted airport, although US Airways does

have some operations there and those flights will, presumably, be integrated quickly with American’s JFK operation. However, US Airways also brings to American and oneworld the US Airways Shuttle operation in the high-yield markets linking New York LaGuardia with Boston and Washington National Airport. It also brings an excellent domestic-and-

Los Angeles “cornerstone” cities. The combined American/US Airways will dominate the US East Coast, offering four well spaced out, internationaland-domestic hubs at New York JFK, Philadelphia, Charlotte and Miami, as well as sizable operations at the important airports of Boston, New York LaGuardia, Washington National and Raleigh/ Durham. Meanwhile, US Airways’ hub at Phoenix

Sky Harbor could be developed potentially into a much bigger international gateway and the airline’s strong presence in the western US – recall, half of US Airways was America West Airlines – will boost connecting traffic to American’s major West Coast international gateway at Los Angeles.

The Merger from US Airways’ Perspective

The merger also makes a lot of sense for US Airways. According to Jenks, the airline formerly

offered Star Alliance founding member United Airlines some value by bringing it a strong US East Coast and New York presence, because United had practically no East Coast presence of its own except at Washington Dulles. This was what brought US Airways into the Star Alliance fold. However, once United Airlines achieved its merger with Continental Airlines – US Airways had also been interested in a merger with United – the equation changed for United. It had no need for US Airways any longer because Continental brought its big international hub at Newark, which

international hub at Philadelphia, offering links to most large secondary cities in the eastern part of the US, a big, south-focused hub at Charlotte (actually the largest in US Airways’ network) and potentially as much feed traffic as American’s international network can handle at its Miami, Dallas-Fort Worth, Chicago O’Hare and

Simon Gregory/AirTeamImages

Steve Flint/AirTeamImages

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immunised transatlantic joint venture already (with Air France, KLM and Alitalia), US Airways was left out in the cold. It felt it needed to do something in order to remain a major player among the United States’ largest legacy airlines. A merger with American would be ideal: it would combine two largely unduplicated networks, get US Airways into oneworld and, as the new American Airlines, get straight into the joint transatlantic business American shared with British Airways, Iberia and Finnair.

This will now happen. Whether it will represent good news for the transatlantic economy-

Moni Shafir/AirTeamImages

was (and still is) the biggest international-anddomestic hub operation in the New York metropolitan region. Although US Airways had a sizable transatlantic operation from Philadelphia and Charlotte, as well as some routes to Latin America, US Airways wasn’t invited to join the Atlantic Plus Plus “antitrust-immunised” joint venture. This allowed Star Alliance members United, Air Canada and Lufthansa to coordinate their transatlantic schedules and improve the spread of their flights in these important markets. Since Delta Air Lines also had an antitrust-

class passenger, particularly in terms of fares, remains to be seen. AW2014 Chris Kjelgaard

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Equity Alliance

Steve Flint/AirTeamImages

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ne of the most interesting areas of development in the airline industry in 2014 will be the continuing evolution of Etihad Airways’ equity alliance. After Etihad Airways announced a strategic partnership with Virgin Australia it took a 29.21% stake in airberlin, in December 2011. Soon afterwards, Etihad Airways cemented its ties with Virgin Australia by taking a 10% shareholding in the carrier. This allowed the two carriers to link schedules at Abu Dhabi International Airport, where Etihad is based, in order to offer one-stop flying from the Americas and Europe to Australia. It also created a strategic operational partnership with airberlin by having its new equity partner serve Abu Dhabi from airberlin’s hubs at Berlin and Dusseldorf. Instead of trying to grow its planned Abu Dhabi global hub entirely by expanding its own network, as near-neighbour Emirates Airline was doing in Dubai only 70 miles (112km)

away, Etihad was clearly establishing mutualfeed partnerships with strategic partners to achieve a similar effect.

Independent Global Alliance

By late 2013, Etihad Airways’ growth strategy became even clearer. By using the vast resources of its owners, the Abu Dhabi royal family, to purchase shareholdings in several other airlines – most of which were underperforming – Etihad Airways was obviously building its own global alliance. This equity alliance was independent of the three major existing global alliances, although it did have ties to two of them. In Virgin Australia, Etihad had bought into an airline with close partnership ties on transpacific routes with Delta Air Lines, the largest in the SkyTeam Alliance. While in airberlin, Etihad had bought a sizeable stake in an airline which was an existing member of the oneworld Alliance. Although the equity

alliance was centred on, and intended for, the benefit of one airline – Etihad itself – the other members were also intended to benefit. In most cases Etihad could offer management assistance to, and earn management fees from, its new equity alliance partners. Etihad also appeared prepared to help its partners finance their aircraft acquisitions, by using its own financial clout to buy aircraft for them cheaply.

Shareholding

In 2013 the alliance continued to grow. After taking a 40% stake in Air Seychelles, just under 3% in Aer Lingus and a 49% stake in Serbia’s JAT Airways (renamed Air Serbia and announcing it would be taking ten Airbus A320neos Etihad had ordered at the Dubai Airshow), Etihad Airways invested in two more airlines in November. Industry observers see both investments as being potentially significant, in different ways.

Etihad’s purchase of a 24% shareholding in India’s Jet Airways is intended to keep building the Abu Dhabi hub while strengthening India’s largest independent carrier and, in the process, ensure Etihad Airways maintains a very strong presence in the vast Indian market. It may also encourage Etihad to bolster Jet Airways’ existing minihub at Brussels Airport by boosting feed traffic from other European destinations connecting at Brussels to and from flights to India, Abu Dhabi or North America (see below). Days after announcing it would begin serving Zurich from Abu Dhabi on June 1, 2014, Etihad Airways revealed it had purchased one-third of the shares in the Swiss regional carrier Darwin Airline. Not only was Darwin airline an aptly named investment in the context of the evolution of a growing alliance, but it signalled a new direction for the Etihad equity alliance.

Darwin Airline Etihad announced that Darwin Airline would be re-branded as ‘Etihad Regional’, a move which implied Darwin might only be the first of a group of such carriers from round the world in which Etihad might seek investment. Meanwhile, Darwin Airline announced it would launch 21 new routes in April, May and June 2014 and these would add 18 new destinations to its network. The additional routes showed that Darwin’s strategy as Etihad Regional would not only be to support Etihad Airways itself, with connecting traffic, but also to support other members of its equity alliance. In doing so Darwin Airline will move into a fourth phase of its evolution, just nine years after launching commercial service. Craig Jenks, president of New York consultancy Airline/Aircraft Projects, says that when it began operations in 2004, Lugano-headquartered Darwin Airline’s strategy

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had been to “fill gaps in what [Moritz] Suter created” with Crossair and then Swiss International Air Lines. After the original Swissair collapsed in 2002, “a number of the regional routes it operated also collapsed,” notes Jenks, those from Lugano in particular. Then, three years ago, Darwin Airline purchased fellow Swiss regional carrier Flybaboo, taking over several underserved routes from Geneva in the process. Subsequently, Darwin not only cut deals with Alitalia to take over some tertiary Italian domestic routes, which Alitalia couldn’t operate profitably, but about six months ago Darwin also began basing aircraft at other under-served European airports such as Cambridge Airport, in the UK, and Ancona Falconara Airport, in Italy. Now, says Jenks, in announcing 21 more routes Darwin Airline is doing two different things. Firstly, it is “doing

more of what Darwin has been doing: like Volotea, finding markets no one is in” However its new 2014 schedule shows that, as Etihad Regional, Darwin is also launching routes aimed at providing connecting traffic to Etihad Airways and its equity partners. Seven of the 21 routes serve Zurich, from Florence, Graz, Leipzig, Linz, Lyon, Turin and Verona. These will support Etihad Airways’ daily Abu Dhabi flight with connecting traffic, some of it probably high-yield passengers who will provide Etihad with a couple of thousand dollars of added value. The Zurich routes also will support airberlin, which has a small hub there. Three of the new routes will serve Dusseldorf, a major airberlin hub. In addition to flights to Cambridge and London City Airport, one of Darwin’s new routes from Dusseldorf is to Berlin, an important airberlin domestic trunk route linking its

two main hubs. Jenks reckons Darwin’s BerlinDusseldorf operation will fill some off-peak gaps in airberlin’s existing mainline schedule. Two more new Darwin routes will support airberlin’s Berlin hub, offering flights from Poznan and Wroclaw, both in Poland. While six of the new routes are from Darwin’s existing Geneva hub, one of them will link Geneva with Air Serbia’s hub in Belgrade. “It’s yet another interesting new chapter in the evolution of Etihad’s equityinvestment structure, but it is a very bold move and it is not without risk,” says Jenks. “Normally this kind of connecting traffic would be incremental and wouldn’t be a big percentage of what you do. But what Etihad is saying is that, ‘we have projected [Darwin] will provide enough connecting passengers to justify the cost of this acquisition’. But it’s not as though Darwin doesn’t have a clue as to what it is doing

– it already has a strategy in place of going into [market] gaps.” Part of Darwin Airline’s value to Etihad lies in providing connecting traffic to its equity partners as well as Etihad itself. As Etihad Regional, Darwin’s value could increase even more to Etihad if it was to launch routes feeding connecting traffic to Jet Airways’ flights to North America and India from Jet’s Brussels mini-hub; or in offering more routes to Belgrade. Purely as speculation, two points are worth noting. Darwin’s new 2014 routes include two from Rome Fiumicino to Tirana and Zagreb. Is Etihad Airways contemplating rescuing troubled, underperforming Alitalia? Also, will Darwin be able to operate its expanded schedule with its existing fleet of ten 50-seat Saab 2000 turboprops – or could Etihad Airways come to Darwin’s rescue, as it has with Air Serbia, by buying Darwin jets? AW2014 Chris Kjelgaard

Instead of trying to grow its planned Abu Dhabi global hub entirely by expanding its own network, Etihad is clearly establishing mutual-feed partnerships with strategic partners

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Commercial Aero Engines A

ll five major manufacturers of commercial aero engines are expecting significant developments or programme milestones – or both – in 2014. But for Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce the year should prove particularly significant: both manufacturers should see new powerplants they have developed for new commercial-jet families enter revenue service. Bombardier is careful in answering questions about the anticipated service-entry date of the CS100, which is the first of two currently planned models in Bombardier’s new CSeries family of 100-to-160-seat mainline jets. However, the manufacturer affirms there is a good chance the first CS100 will enter commercial service before the end of 2014. In trying to achieve this target, Bombardier is giving itself at least a year between the first flight of the first CS100 and the aircraft entering service following type certification. Although the Canadian company had to make a lastminute decision in June to postpone the first flight of the CS100, the new model did fly for the first time on September 19 and it is now well into its certification flight-test programme.

Pratt & Whitney

The CSeries – along with four other new airliners yet to make their first flights – is powered by one of five different models (so far) in the Pratt & Whitney PurePower PW1000G family of gearedturbofan engines. The PW1500G powering the CSeries – in two versions, the PW1521G for the CS100 and the PW1524G for the larger CS300 – was the first PW1000G model to fly and the first to be certified as ready for service, receiving its type certificate from Transport Canada in February. Pratt & Whitney’s position on when the PW1500G will enter commercial service is “12 months after first flight” – which, if Bombardier can achieve its first-delivery target, will mean the first CS100 entering service by the end of 2014.

Meanwhile, Bombardier is close to adding the first of two planned flight-test CS300s to the fiveaircraft CS100 flight-test fleet. Several other important PW1000G-family milestones are likely in 2014. The PW1100G, currently the largest and most powerful model in the PW1000G family (along with the almost identical PW1400G for Russia’s Irkut MS-21 family of mainline jets), made its first flight in 2013, on P&W’s Boeing 747SP flying test-bed. Designed for the Airbus A320neo family (for which the PW1100G represents one of two engine choices, the other being CFM International’s new LEAP-1A), the PW1100G will undertake its first flight on an A320neo during 2014. To date, the PW1100G has outsold the yet-to-fly CFM LEAP-1A on the A320neo family, achieving more than 50% of announced and unannounced orders. The PW1100G programme calls for assembly to begin on flight-test engines in early 2014. Delivery to Airbus is expected in the second quarter, followed by PW1100G type certification – under Part 33 of the US Federal Aviation Regulations – in the third quarter. Airbus and Pratt & Whitney expect the first A320neo and its PW1100Gs to make their first flight in September. Another PW1000G

GE9X highpressure compressor rig testing is well under way at GE’s Oil & Gas facility in Massa in Italy. GE Aviation

milestone in 2014 will be delivery, during the second quarter, of the flight-test PW1200G engines for the first Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ). Together with the virtually identicalsize PW1700G which will power the smaller members of the Embraer E-Jets-E2 family, the PW1200G is the smallest member of the PW1000G family dimensionally and in terms of thrust. (The PW1900G which will power the larger E-Jet-E2s will be almost identical to the PW1500G for the CSeries.) By late November, Pratt & Whitney had firm orders and commitments for more than 4,800 PW1000G engines, from more than 45 customers.

Pratt & Whitney Canada

Pratt & Whitney Canada is also expecting milestones in 2014 for two of its engine families. Probably of the greatest commercial significance is the 30th anniversary of the PW100’s entry into service in 1984. Since then the PW100/ PW150 family of turboprop engines has powered every ATR and Bombardier turboprop regional airliner delivered (as well as ten other aircraft types), and thousands of PW100s are now in service. Hundreds more are on firm order for future ATR 600 series,

Bombardier Q400 NextGen and Airbus Military C295 deliveries; and orders for regional turboprops show every sign of increasing pace rather than slowing down. Airlines are realising that, at today’s jet fuel prices, turboprops make more sense economically on short-haul sectors than do regional jets. With marketplace sentiment increasingly indicating that a 90-plus-seat turboprop is needed, PWC’s next big decision may be to develop a new turboprop engine even more powerful than the PW150. After celebrating in December, the 50th anniversary of delivery of the first PT6A turboprop engine (the PT6

family went on to become the most widely used family of turboprop and turboshaft engines in history), PWC should see another interesting milestone in 2014. This is the first commercial flight of the Scaled Composites White Knight Two, the launch platform for the SpaceShip Two, with Virgin Galactic. The White Knight Two is powered by four Pratt & Whitney Canada PW308 turbofan engines, more commonly found on executive jets.

Rolls-Royce

Rolls-Royce’s most significant highlight in 2014 will be the entry into service with Qatar Airways of the first customer Airbus A350 XWB, powered by Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines. The Trent XWB is specifically designed, and is the sole engine choice, for the Airbus A350 XWB family, more than 800 of which had been sold by November. Rolls-Royce first committed to the Trent XWB programme in 2006. The Trent XWB, which ran for the first time on a test-bed in 2010, powered the first test flight of the

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The first Trent 1000-TEN version of the Trent 1000 (shown) will start test runs in 2014. Rolls-Royce

A350 XWB at Toulouse on June 14, 2013. The Trent XWB is now the highestselling model in the entire Trent family – by late 2013, more than 1,600 had been ordered – and its sales performance is all the more remarkable considering the A350 XWB is still many months away from entering service. Another 2014 highlight for R-R will be the first run of the Trent XWB-97, the 97,000lb-thrust (431.5kN) version that will power the A350-1000. This engine recently completed its critical design review and is due to enter service in 2017. Rolls-Royce’s Trent 1000 for the Boeing 787 will see further developments in 2014, when the ‘Package C’ version of the engine enters service with Air New Zealand on the first customer 787-9. Additionally, the first Trent 1000-TEN will start test runs. The Trent 1000TEN – the ‘TEN’ standing for ‘Thrust, Efficiency and New technology’ – will be certified to 76,000lb (338kN) of take-off thrust but will be able to provide up to 78,000lb (347kN), so that it can power all versions of the Dreamliner – including the stretched Boeing

78710. The Trent 1000-TEN incorporates advances in the high-pressure turbine and compressor, blisk technology and sophisticated internal aerodynamics controls. Other members of the Trent family will also introduce developments in 2014. An ‘EP2’ – Enhancement Package 2 – version of the Trent 900 for the A380 will become the standard new-build model, offering an additional fuel-burn improvement of up to 0.8%. Trent 900 EP2 improvements include optimised fan blade-tip clearance; turbine case cooling; sealing for the low-pressure (LP) turbine; an optimised intermediate pressure (IP) compressor; an upgraded engine sector stator; and improvements to the air flow system. Meanwhile, EP2 enhancements for the A330 family’s Trent 700 – intended to deliver a further 1% improvement in fuel-burn – will continue to be tested, with availability planned for 2015.

GE Aviation

GE Aviation is focusing in 2014 on its GEnx and GE9X families of large-turbofan engines. By November 30, 119 GEnx-1B and 236 GEnx-2B engines were in service, increasing to 500 by 2015. To meet this demand, GEnx production will increase from 200 engines in 2013 to 300 in 2014. To date, GE Aviation has won

orders for more than 1,300 GEnx engines, almost 1,000 of which have yet to be delivered. By late 2013, GEnx total flight hours exceeded 1 million and should surpass 2 million in 2014. Selected earlier this year to power the Boeing 777X, GE Aviation’s new GE9X will enter service late this decade. Among its technology innovations will be aviation’s largest-diameter front fan (132 inches/3.352m), its highest pressure-ratio (27-to-1) compressor and unique ceramic matrix composite (CMC) hotsection components. GE says this will be its most fuel-efficient jet engine ever, offering a 10% improvement in fuel burn over the massive GE90115B. GE9X component testing is well under way, including highpressure compressor rig testing at GE’s Oil & Gas facility in Massa,

CFM International

By November, CFM International had completed ground-testing of the first full LEAP engine, which fired for the first time on September 4. During five weeks of testing it logged 310 hours and more than 400 cycles. This first engine test launched a groundand flight-test certification programme that will encompass 60 engine builds over the next three years. These will accumulate approximately 40,000 cycles before entry into service. In 2014 a total of 15 LEAP engines will be tested. They will include LEAP-1As designed for the A320neo-family, LEAP-1Bs for the Boeing 737 MAX and LEAP-1Cs for the COMAC C919. CFM will complete early icing tests at GE’s facilities in Winnipeg, as well as early endurance testing. Both the LEAP-1A and -1C are on schedule for flight-testing to begin in 2014. CFM expects to deliver approximately 1,500 CFM56 engines a year in both 2013 and 2014. Over the next few years it will continue

All five major manufacturers of commercial aero engines are expecting significant developments or programme milestones – or both – in 2014

The LEAP-1A designed for the A320neo-family, will be tested in 2014. CFM International

Italy. The company will test GE9X CMC components in a GEnx demonstrator in 2014. These tests are to validate the performance of CMCs ahead of the design freeze for the GE9X. It expects to test the first full GE9X engine in 2016, with flight-testing on GE’s flying test-bed anticipated in 2017. Engine certification is scheduled for 2018.

building CFM56s, while transitioning over to production of its new LEAP family. By late 2013, CFM International had an order backlog of more than 10,000 CFM56 and LEAP engines, of which more than 5,800 were LEAP powerplants. CFM expects to produce 1,700 engines a year by 2019, almost all of them LEAP engines. AW2014 Chris Kjelgaard

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T

he largest prize on offer for manufacturers of advanced training systems is the US Air Force’s T-X requirement to replace the Northrop T-38C Talon. Several major hurdles need to be overcome before the programme can progress however, the most important being the allocation of funds by the US Department of Defense (DoD). While there is no argument within the service that it needs a new advanced trainer, better able to prepare pilots for the fifth generation fighters entering service in increasing numbers, requirements for new tankers and bombers and the Joint Strike Fighter have higher priority. Funds for the programme are due to be included in the fiscal year 2015 budget (which runs from October 1, 2014). Around 350 aircraft are likely to be acquired. With such a prize at stake, it is likely that every manufacturer with a suitable aircraft will consider submitting a proposal for T-X. Lockheed Martin’s involvement with the Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) T-50 Golden Eagle was spurred by knowledge that the US Air Force would need to replace the Talon. The lack of two-seat operational conversion trainer versions of the F-22 and F-35 means that new pilots will go ‘solo’ in them on their first flight; replicating the systems and operating environment as close as possible at the advanced training stage will thus be an important factor in the selection of the T-X. As producer of the F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II, Lockheed Martin has an understanding of what is required to train pilots for the fighters. Boeing’s decision to abandon plans to design a new trainer and team with Saab to offer a version of the Saab JAS 39F Gripen would provide the required performance. However, by late 2013 neither company had publicly confirmed plans to compete together for T-X. Alenia Aermacchi is offering the T-100 Integrated Training

System, based on the M-346 Master. General Dynamics will be its US partner for the proposal. Northrop Grumman has teamed with BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce as the prime contractor to offer a version of the Hawk Advanced Jet Training System. While the airframe lacks the performance of the latest combat aircraft – it is limited to subsonic speeds – it is familiar to the DoD, having been operated by the US Navy in the form of the T-45 Goshawk for more than 20 years. In the shorter term, Poland’s search for eight advanced trainers (plus four options) to replace PZL TS-11 Iskras is expected to result in a preferred bidder selection and contract signing in the first quarter of 2014. Tenders were opened on November 20, 2013, with Alenia Aermacchi offering the M-346 Master, BAE Systems the Hawk and Lockheed Martin the T-50 Golden Eagle. A budget of 1.2 billion zlotys has been allocated to the programme, although only Alenia Aermacchi’s bid is below this total. Purchase price is an important criteria for the programme, as well as life cycle costs and performance. Little progress will be made on the UK Military Flying Training System (MFTS) programme during 2014. A preferred bidder to replace the current elementary, basic, multi-engine and fixed-wing rear crew trainers is due to be selected in 2015. Ascent Flight Training, which runs UK MFTS, is currently evaluating responses to a request for proposals submitted by April 19, 2013. They are understood to have been submitted by three teams; BAE Systems, with Babcock, Gama Aviation and Pilatus; EADS Cassidian with Cobham and CAE; and the Affinity team of KBR and Elbit Systems. BAE’s proposal was based on upgrading the existing Grob G115 Tutor fleet and using Pilatus PC-21s for advanced training. EADS would use Grob G120TPs and Hawker Beechcraft Defense

Company T-6C Texan IIs, while Affinity offered the same combination. Unconfirmed comments by Ascent executives appear to put Affinity ahead for the contract. The T-6C also forms the basis of a proposal put forward by BAE Systems Australia, CAE and Beechcraft for the Royal Australian Air Force’s Project AIR 5428. Tenders for AIR 5428 will close on February 17, 2014 and selection is expected by the end of June 2015. The successful contractor will run an integrated training system, replacing the fixed-wing

basic and advanced flying syllabuses currently in place, with an initial operating capability between 2015 and 2017. Team 21, comprising Lockheed Martin Australia, Pilatus and Hawker Pacific, are offering a solution based on the PC-21, similar to that currently provided for the Republic of Singapore Air Force at Perth, Western Australia. Further consortia are expected to announce bids as the deadline for the tender draws near, with Boeing Defence Australia, Raytheon Australia and Thales all having indicating interest in the requirement. During 2014 Alenia Aermacchi will continue development of the M-345 High Energy Trainer, which was selected by Italy to replace the Aermacchi MB339 in September 2013. The Italian deal will be firmed up during the year and the aircraft order number revealed. Initial examples are due to be issued to the Freece Tricolori aerobatic team in 2017. The M-345 has been designed as part of a training system with the M-346 Master. Italy has six on order as T-346As, two of which have been delivered. The first of 30

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Top: A prototype Fábrica Argentina de Aviones Pampa III is due to fly by early 2014. Santiago Rivas Korea Aerospace Industries will complete delivery of 12 T-50I Golden Eagles to Indonesia and produce TA-50s for the Republic of Korea Air Force during 2014. Korea Aerospace Industries

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M-346s for Israel – where they will be known as Lavi – is due to fly in early 2014 with the first delivery in the middle of the year. The M-346 was also selected by the United Arab Emirates in 2009, which has a requirement for 48. The status of that deal is uncertain and it is possible that alternatives are under consideration. The RAF’s order for the Hawk T2 and India’s subsequent selection of the Mk132 reinvigorated BAE Systems’ advanced trainer programme. Assembly by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) at Bangalore in India is under way, with a total of 82 for the air force and 17 for the navy to be produced there, with deliveries to both services continuing through 2014. A further 20 will be ordered to re-equip the Surya Kiran aerobatic team. In addition to finding out if its design has been successful in Poland, KAI will complete delivery of 12 T-50I Golden Eagles to Indonesia and produce TA-50s for the Republic of Korea Air Force during the year. Deliveries of the United Aircraft Corporation’s Yakovlev Yak-130 to the Russian Air Force continue. Of the 90

firm orders, around 30 had been delivered by late 2013, but current plans are likely to involve contracts for additional batches signed during 2014. With the exception of the order for Algeria, exports of the type have been frustrated by international conflicts. Aircraft built for Libya were diverted to Russia, while some of the 36 ordered by Syria have been produced and are currently stored, awaiting the resolution of the civil war raging in that country. Assembly of four for Belarus should begin in 2014 for delivery the following year. The identity of the first customer for the Hongdu L-15 Falcon will be confirmed in the coming year. A production aircraft completed its first flight on June 29, 2013, the first of 12, for an undisclosed air arm that will be delivered under the terms of a contract the manufacturer signed with the China National

Aero Technology Import and Export Corporation (CATIC) in November of the previous year. While Zambia has been widely reported as the recipient, this has not been confirmed by CATIC. China’s most prolific trainer export is the Hongdu K-8 Karakorum, which has entered service in Bolivia, Egypt, Ghana, Myanmar, Namibia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tanzania, Venezuela, Zambia and Zimbabwe, as well as with the People’s Liberation Army Air Force. Favourable terms and the ability to act as both an advanced trainer and light strike platform make the K-8 attractive to countries with limited budgets, especially in Africa and, increasingly, Latin America. HAL continues to work on the HJT-36 Sitara intermediate jet trainer to fulfil an initial order for 12 limited series production aircraft for the Indian Air Force. Initial operational

clearance was planned for the end of 2013, but delays to the programme mean the milestone is unlikely to be reached until late 2014 at the earliest. In May 2012 the Argentine defence

minister announced an intention to acquire a further 40 Fábrica Argentina de Aviones (FAdeA) Pampas. A prototype Pampa III is due to fly by early 2014 and the first batch of 18 will be delivered for use

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as trainers. In 2014 work will start on a light attack variant, of which 22 are destined for Argentina. The Pampa III will also be offered for export as part of a training package with the Grob G120TP turboprop, following an agreement with the German manufacturer in early 2012. All ten Grob G120TPs ordered by the Argentine Air Force will be in service by the end of 2014. The deal will see the aircraft repurchased by the manufacturer after they are replaced by the IA73 UNASUR I, currently being development by FAdeA. During 2014 Indonesia will also receive

the outstanding G120TPs of its order for 14, which was announced in September 2012, while Kenya will take delivery of six piston-engined G120A-Ks. Switzerland’s Pilatus Aircraft will be busy during 2014 with deliveries of PC-7 Mk IIs to the Indian Air Force continuing against an order for 75, and the initial examples of 55 PC-21s for Saudi Arabia due to be handed over. Construction of 24 PC-21s for Qatar is also likely during 2014. In addition to its considerable backlog of firm orders, India is considering exercising

an option for 37 additional PC-7s to re-equip its basic training fleet. Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) is due to receive an order for 15 Hürkus¸ B basic trainers for the Turkish Air Force in coming months, after the purchase was approved by the Undersecretariat of Defence Industries in the third quarter of 2013. The deal is the first for the aircraft, which was originally proposed for a requirement that was later fulfilled by TAI-assembled KAI KT-1T WoongBees. An option for 15 additional KT-1Ts above the 40 originally ordered was allowed to expire.

An initial four KAI-built KT-1Ps are expected to be delivered to Peru in 2014, before manufacture is transferred to the Peruvian Air Force’s SEMAN (Servicio de Mantenimiento) at Las Palmas. Sixteen will be assembled in-country. Embraer continues to sell EMB-314 (A29) Super Tucanos, with three due to be delivered to Senegal along with a training operational support system, a package of computer-based tuition, flight simulation, mission planning and debriefing tools. The Light Air Support (LAS) contract, for which Embraer teamed with the Sierra Nevada Corporation to produce 20 A-29Bs for supply by the US to Afghanistan, is more important in terms of numbers. Deliveries from the Jacksonville, Florida, assembly facility are expected to result in the first aircraft flying in the summer and entering service in Afghanistan in 2015. They will be used in both the light strike and reconnaissance and advanced training roles. The Hawker Beechcraft Defense company, which lost out to Embraer for the LAS contract, continues to produce T-6Cs for the US military. Lot 19 announced in May 2013 covers 33 aircraft for delivery to the US Navy by the end of 2015, plus two more for the US AW2014 Army. David Willis

The largest prize on offer for manufacturers of advanced training systems is the US Air Force’s T-X requirement to replace the Northrop T-38C Talon Left top: Northrop Grumman has teamed with BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce to offer a version of the Hawk Advanced Jet Training System for the US Air Force T-X programme. Paul Heasman Middle left: Deliveries of the United Aircraft Corporation’s Yakovlev Yak-130 to the Russian Air Force continue and contracts for additional batches are expected to be signed during 2014. Piotr Butowski Opposite top: The first examples of 55 PC-21s for Saudi Arabia are due to be handed over in 2014. Pilatus Opposite Middle: Alenia Aermacchi has offered the M-346 Master to Poland for its advanced trainer requirement. Alenia Aermacchi Opposite middle left: The Beechcraft T-6C forms the basis of a proposal put forward by BAE Systems Australia, CAE and Beechcraft for the Royal Australian Air Force’s Project AIR 5428. Beechcraft

COMMERCIAL AIRBUS A320neo

A Happy Neo

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t’s quite possible that even Airbus didn’t fully grasp what it was unleashing when it officially launched the A320neo in December 2010. At the time, it has to be said, there was no shortage of people willing to suggest that Airbus was risking compromising the value of a highly-successful design that had been accumulating orders since it was launched in the late 1980s. Yet the neo – standing for new engine option – has now become the best-selling airliner in commercial aviation history with over 2,400 sales racked up in three years. And, thanks to careful management of the price differential, the baseline variant is still attracting orders. “So far,” an Airbus spokesman told AIR International in mid-November, “we’ve achieved 2,487 neo sales from 44 customers.” In fact, the neo now accounts for 28% of the sales backlog for narrowbody airliners compared with 22% for the ceo – current engine option – and its biggest rival, Boeing’s 737 MAX, which has 18%. The 737NG, however, accounts for 25%. The figures illustrate one of Airbus’ current dilemmas with its latest A320 variant – the need to maintain a balance between the old and the neo. This was summed up by John Leahy, Airbus’ chief operating officer customers when he insisted: “We’re not redesigning the A320. We think the A320

PurePower or LEAP

family is pretty damn good just the way it is.” Indeed, Airbus insists it’s not organising a clearance sale and that it has secured over 760 orders for the baseline variants since the neo’s launch.

Neo Order-Fest Then in mid-2013 came the announcement that easyJet had ordered 35 for delivery between 2015 and 2017. And they’d also secured purchase rights on 100 A320neos. The airline said the 180-seaters were expected to deliver cost per seat savings of between 11 and 12%. Not for the first time easyJet had negotiated a shrewd deal. Chief executive Carolyn McCall, commented: “All manufacturers competed hard for the easyJet business. Both Airbus and Boeing offered us new-generation aircraft that met

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our requirements and offered greatly improved fuel efficiency.” But, she added: “Ultimately, Airbus offered us the best deal, and at a price with a greater discount to the list price than their landmark fleet purchase with easyJet in 2002.” In fact, easyJet has made it clear that it had negotiated a “very substantial discount from the list price” of the aircraft. Under the terms of the deal each A320 will cost $76.3 million while the neos are being sold at $92.3 million each. The mid-year order-fest continued when the International Lease Finance Corporation announced orders for a further 30 neos. Actually, ILFC was already launch customer for the A320neo, it having superseded Virgin America which deferred deliveries of its 30 aircraft until 2020. ILFC is also launch customer for the A321neo, while Qatar Airways is launch customer for the A319neo. Of the neo variants, the A320 is comfortably ahead in terms of orders, with 77% rather than the 20% of the A321.

ILFC’s neos are to be powered by Pratt & Whitney engines. The latest order took its total commitment to the engine builder to 180 units. “The selection of Pratt & Whitney PurePower PW1100G-JM engines to power these new A320neo family aircraft speaks directly to ILFC’s commitment to bringing the most advanced technology to our global customer network,” said Chief Executive Officer Henri Courpron. “We’re pleased to further develop our strategic alignment with Pratt & Whitney to provide our customers with the competitive advantages of the PurePower engine’s performance and lower operating costs.” It’s clear, therefore, that in launching the new variant Airbus has also set the scene for a battle for sales between the manufacturers of the industry’s newest engines as CFM’s LEAP-1A competes with Pratt & Whitney’s PW1000G geared turbofan as the variant’s preferred power plant. In fact, the neo is the only new aircraft over which CFM and P&W are competing head-to-head. It’s for several reasons, therefore, that the next 12 months will be crucial for the neo programme as the airframe-engine

eo Year? The Airbus A320 Bruce Hales-Dutton reviews the status of the A320neo

at its West Palm Beach facility. P&W admits that ground running so far has indicated the need for some changes, particularly in terms of cooling, but insists that hiccoughs in testing are “routine”. Having been launched first, the PW1100G will enter service on the A320neo before the LEAP on which testing has now started. “The engine is running fantastically,” according to CFM. The company intends to ramp up the test effort so that in 2014 it expects to have 15 development engines running. CFM is also confident enough to claim that the LEAP-powered A320neo will offer a 2% fuel burn advantage over the same aircraft with the P&W. That advantage, CFM says, rises to 3% in the A321neo. And although the market is finely poised between the two engines CFM is marginally ahead with 34% of A320/A319/A321neo customers opting for the LEAP-1A compared with 32% for the PW1100G; 34% remain undecided.

Sharklets Although the key to the neo is the availability of new fuel-efficient engines, the variant also incorporates wing-tip devices which Airbus calls Sharklets. They’re claimed to contribute to the fuel-saving. Indeed, Airbus promises neo will offer “significant fuel

savings of up to 15%.” That represents up to 3,600 tonnes of annual carbon dioxide savings per aircraft. Double-digit reduction in nitrous oxide emissions, reduced engine noise and operating costs up to 8% are also promised. It also means a choice of up to 500nm (950km) more range or two tonnes more payload. Airbus puts the cost of developing the new aircraft at about €1 billion. It says the neo will have over 95% airframe commonality with the standard A320 family. Apart from the Sharklets – expected to reduce fuel burn by at least 3.5% over longer sectors – the modifications will be limited to strengthened outer wing sections and leading gear plus new engine pylons. This commonality will enable operators of several Airbus family types to benefit from lower pilot and maintenance training costs. Following certification late in 2012 Sharklets are now available on the baseline aircraft. Airbus expects that from the second quarter of 2017 it will be turning out more neos than ceos. That point is scheduled to come just 18 months after the A320 enters service. And from the beginning of 2018 production is expected to reach a rate of 42 a month. The manufacturer expects to deliver 4,000 neos by 2030.

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Airbus

combination moves towards certification. Airbus says the A320neo’s first flight is slated for the fourth quarter of 2014, with service entry a year later. In fact the manufacturer is developing eight flight test aircraft – four A320neos, two A321neos and two A319neos to ensure each of the three variants is certificated with each of the engine options from CFM and P&W. Airbus’ transition schedule also calls for eight pre-series aircraft to be built from the beginning of 2015. A production rate of three A320neos per month is scheduled by the end of 2015 rising to 16 a month in the following year. This will be matched by a corresponding fall in production of the ceo. Meanwhile, with the A320neo expected to enter the final assembly line in the first quarter of 2014, the manufacture of components has been under way since early 2013. Neo Chief Engineer Pierre-Henri Brousse has more good news. Both engine types are “on track,” he said. The PW1100G is expected to be first into the flight test phase following the completion of ground testing

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COMMERCIAL AIRBUS A350 XWB

Towards Serv Entry Airbus A350

Bruce Hales-Dutton assesses the A350XWB

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f 2013 was a highly significant year for the Airbus A350, 2014 will see the European manufacturer’s latest widebody airliner facing its biggest test yet. Since emerging from a re-design, which saw the project morph from the pedestrian A350 into the advanced A350 XWB – extra wide body – the aircraft is well into its flight test programme and the manufacturer is looking forward to service entry. The first A350-900 is scheduled for delivery to launch customer Qatar Airways during the second half of next year.

Prototypes The first prototype, designated MSN1, carried out its maiden flight on June 14,

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and had completed 77 flights, totalling 378 hours, by mid-October. That same month, the next prototype on the schedule, MSN3, made its first flight and next year the pair will be joined by three more aircraft in the 2,500 hour flight test programme that will lead to certification by the end of next summer. MSN1 and MSN3 had clocked up over 700 flight test hours in more than 100 test flights by December 3. MSN2 and MSN4 are scheduled to fly in February, with MSN5 following in May. So far the flight envelope has been steadily expanded and a number of key test milestones have already been passed, including the first using Autoland. The test team has also been able to spare the time to give Airbus president and chief executive Fabrice Brégier a wellpublicised ride, and putting up a formation comprising MSN1 and MSN3, together with an A380. Yet it was only a year ago that the A350 seemed to have a fair bit of ground to make up on its key rival, Boeing’s 787. Now it seems to be catching up, and that’s not entirely due to the Dreamliner’s electrical troubles during 2013. By the end of November Airbus had accumulated 814 orders for the A350, 232 of them signed up since the beginning of the year. This compares with 1,011 for the 787, which has attracted 164 orders since January 2013.

Cock-a-Hoop

The figures for the A350, however, don’t include what’s being seen as a potentially ground-breaking order from a quarter not hitherto regarded as Airbus territory. In October Japan Airlines (JAL) announced it had signed a purchase agreement for 31 A350XWBs: 18 -900s and 13 -1000s, plus options for a further 25. This represented a breakthrough for it wasn’t just JAL’s first-ever order for Airbus aircraft, it was also the first order from Japan for the A350XWB. Service entry is planned for 2019. Not surprisingly Airbus was cock-a-hoop. Fabrice Brégier, the company’s president and chief executive, declared: “It fills us with pride to see a leading Japanese airline start a new chapter with us. This highlights a very bright and flourishing future for both of us.” Indeed, the order has wide significance for the European airframer. It’s a clear sign that Airbus has upped its game in the region and not only does it mean that other Japanese airlines, such as All Nippon Airways, are more likely to order from Airbus, but it could also signal a re-examination of the previous close ties between Boeing and Japan’s aerospace industry.

XWB Family The A350 was conceived as a threevariant family with the baseline -900 at its heart. This aircraft seats 314 passengers in a three-class layout and offers a range

AIRBUS A350 XWB COMMERCIAL

rvice

All images Airbus

of 8,100 nautical miles (15,000km). The 270-seat -800 will have an 8,500-nautical mile (15,750km) range, with service entry scheduled for mid-2016. Sales, though, have so far been slow yet the company says interest has been growing in the 350seat, 8,400-nautical mile (15,555km) -1000. Customers for this variant now include such Boeing stalwarts as Cathay Pacific and British Airways. A mid-2017 service entry is planned. Meanwhile, a dedicated organisation has been established by Airbus to manage the process that will lead to the delivery of the first -900 next year. Cabin definition teams are working with customers and, programme head Didier Evrard says, “this should give us the tools we need to ensure a successful ramp-up.” MSN2 will be the first of the test aircraft to have a fitted-out cabin and, as part of the preparatory work, it undertook a simulated five-hour ‘flight’ in July with 129 ‘virtual’ passengers and eight flight attendants. Evrard explains: “We were able to operate the cabin as if it was a real flight. We don’t need to be in flight to discover the basics.” MSN4 will have no fitted cabin but will pave the way to final assembly, while MSN5 will be the second cabin-fitted aircraft. With its design now frozen, the -1000 is about to move into its industrial phase. Final assembly is scheduled to start in late 2015 with the maiden flight expected in 2016. Its powerplant, the Rolls-Royce XWB-97, is planned to run for the first time in 2014. The -1000 is essentially a stretch of the -900 with many common systems and a common supply chain. As a result,

Airbus sees it as a low-risk development, which is just as well since, as Evrard notes, “it will have to be inserted into a manufacturing process already in full swing with the -900.” Airbus is now expecting a lot of the biggest A350 variant. “This segment of the market has been growing since the -1000 was launched,” Evrard notes. Indeed, Airbus believes the focus is shifting from 250- to 300-seaters. Airbus is confident that the A350 will achieve certification and go into production much more smoothly than was the case for the A380. Brégier says lessons have been learned even though the challenges are greater because of the A350’s composite construction. Risk-sharing partners are being given additional support, and actions have been launched to better manage its production ramp-up.

Bigger Model The company may now be trumpeting the A350 as the world’s most technologically advanced aircraft, but when Boeing first revealed its innovative all-electric, composite 787, Airbus seemed disinclined to match it. Yet Boeing’s claim of 20% lower fuel burn than the 767 prompted customers to press Airbus to re-think its view that the Dreamliner was merely a response to its A330. In 2004 Airbus shareholders authorised the launch of a new aircraft under the A350 designation. Projected to be a twin-jet in the 250-300seat class, it seemed more A330 than 787 with mostly metal construction. There was a general feeling that it wouldn’t provide an adequate challenge to the 787 from a

manufacturer that had hitherto seen itself as a leader in the development of aeronautical technology rather than a follower. The XWB is the product of the re-think. Airbus is clearly confident that the re-design has enabled it to leap-frog its competitors. It claims that the A350 combines the latest thinking in aerodynamics with advanced technologies. This, it claims, will produce a 25% step-change in fuel efficiency compared with Boeing’s 777 and 6% compared with the 787. The A350’s cabin can accommodate up to ten seats abreast. It also permits a range of configurations from seven-abreast business class layouts to high-density economy class seating. Airbus says that in either a 2-4-2 premium economy layout or a standard 3-3-3 nine-abreast configuration, the A350’s seat width of 450mm (18in) is 13mm (0.5in) greater than a 787 in equivalent configuration. But going into 2014 Airbus is beginning to think that even the -1000 may not represent the limit for the A350. The company is currently weighing up a further stretch to produce a 400-seater. Studies into the additional engineering likely to be needed for the aircraft’s structure and systems to permit an extra fuselage extension are in progress and thinking on this issue is likely to advance significantly during 2014. And in a year that will see the A350 pass more significant milestones, Airbus has one further ambition for the aircraft beyond a successful entry into service. Such is its confidence in its new widebody family that it plans a drive to capitalise on its success and increase its market share. As programme boss Didier Evrard puts it: “I think we still have more to come.”

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1 1 Norwegian Air Shuttle was the first European customer for the 737 MAX, committing to 100 MAX 8s in January 2012. Boeing 2 The 737 MAX’s cockpit will include data collection systems designed to speed up maintenance. Boeing

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he development of the Boeing 737 MAX is advancing. Systems definition for the three variants in the new aircraft family – the MAX 7, 8 and 9, which will supersede the current 737-700, -800 and -900ER respectively – was achieved in the autumn, following the final configuration being firmed up last summer. In October 2013 CFM International started assembling the first example of the type’s LEAP-1B engine. Further important milestones are coming up soon. Completion of the first LEAP-1B’s assembly is expected in June 2014, enabling initial ground tests to start in the middle of the year. The summer is also scheduled to see the MAX’s design being frozen, a critical moment which will allow the manufacture of components for the first flight test aircraft to begin in 2015.

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Fuel Burn Back in July 2012, when Boeing released the first official detailed information about the MAX’s planned performance figures, it estimated the new aircraft would burn 13% less fuel than the current 737NG (see MAXimised Performance, August 2012, p38). The company has now revised this figure, announcing that the engineering development process has yielded an extra one percent in fuel efficiency. How has Boeing managed to eke out the extra fuel saving? Chief project engineer for the 737 MAX Michael Teal revealed, during a recent teleconference with analysts, that half the gain comes from an aerodynamic improvement which has been found in the integration of the LEAP-1B with the wing. “On the NG there are some characteristics of how shock waves work on the inboard wing that actually cause drag. The integration of the [new] engines with the wing [on the MAX] has enabled us to minimise that shock wave, which [reduces] the drag,” Teal explained.

The other half percent comes from refinements to the aerodynamic profile of the MAX’s Advanced Technology Winglet and the LEAP-1Bs. Boeing said previously the winglets would contribute 1.5% of the type’s fuel burn improvement over the NG. However, the company maintains its claim that the MAX will offer 8% lower fuel burn per seat than its main competition, the Airbus A320neo variants.

Faster Maintenance Boeing has also announced changes to the MAX’s flight-deck systems. Built-in test equipment – meters, oscilloscopes, probes and frequency generators which continually monitor an aircraft’s systems to detect faults – is being moved into the flight-deck from the forward electronic equipment bay in the nose, where it’s located in the NG. The company says this change will mean “maintenance issues can be resolved faster” in the MAX compared to the NG. The MAX cockpit will feature a new digital flight data acquisition unit and network file server transmitting maintenance and 2 performance data about the aircraft, including any problems, to the airline’s ground operations team in real time. “These will provide a centralised data collection system with more storage capacity, doubling the maintenance data available during flight,” Boeing explains. According to the company, the equipment will allow engineers to prepare the necessary checks or fixes ready for when the aircraft lands, theoretically cutting downtime when an aircraft has a problem. The changes are aimed at speeding up processes to improve efficiency and save operators money at a time of increasing costs, the ultimate goal of all new airliners in development. Boeing says the new systems have been tested on an American Airlines

BOEING 737 MAX COMMERCIAL

To the 2014 will be an important year in the development of the Boeing 737 MAX. By Mark Broadbent Boeing 737-800 as part of the 2012 phase of the on-going ecoDemonstrator programme (see November 2012, p78). The company plans to install them in new-build 737NGs in 2015 as part of the process of de-risking the MAX’s systems development before first flight. It says it will continue to look for opportunities to make it easier for customers to operate the aircraft. “We are being very deliberate about any changes we make to the systems on the 737 MAX to make the airplane even easier to operate and maintain. Through careful testing and selective application… we can ensure these systems are ready to enhance the management of our customers’ fleets,” Teal adds. The first variant to be developed is the MAX 8 and Boeing has brought forward the date of the first customer delivery in 2017 by three months, from Q4 to Q3. The first prototype MAX 8 is scheduled to fly and begin the testing and certification programme in 2016.

Interior Changes? Per-seat operating costs are a major factor in aircraft economics and, therefore, part of the PR battle between major manufacturers as they promote their new designs. In January 2013 Airbus announced a new cabin option for the A321neo, which will compete directly with the MAX 9, involving the installation of an additional over-wing exit door. This will

MAX increase the A321’s maximum exit limit and the resulting undivided forward cabin will allow 16 extra seats to be installed. This, says Airbus, will lower the aircraft’s per-seat cost. In May 2013 Hong Kong-based analysts Aspire Aviation, citing unnamed sources, claimed Boeing was researching adding between six and nine more seats into each MAX variant to maximise per-seat operating economics. Boeing has not confirmed whether it is planning such interior changes, although 737 MAX programme manager Keith Leverkuhn told a media briefing the company was satisfied with the MAX’s current seating configuration, then added it would “continue to talk to the customers [about] what they need”.

Order Book At the time of writing the MAX family had attracted 1,768 commitments, split into 1,629 firm orders and 139 purchase agreements or memorandums of understanding (MoUs). This compares to the competing A320neo family’s 2,671 commitments, 2,523 firm orders and 148 MoUs. During 2013 several airlines selected the neo for their future fleets. The International Airlines Group (the parent company of British Airways, Iberia and Vueling), easyJet and, most recently, Etihad Airways all announced big commitments for the type. As these, and other airlines which have ordered the neo, are A320 operators currently,

it could be argued that the MAX didn’t ‘lose out’ necessarily to its European rival. Airlines rarely switch from one narrowbody type to another; they tend to stick with their incumbent equipment provider because of the costs of crew re-training and changes to engineering support. Turkish low cost carrier Pegasus Airlines’ decision, in 2013, to move from the 737NG to the neo is an exception. This trend works equally in Boeing’s favour, given its large existing 737 customer base. Several existing major 737NG operators have placed big commitments for the MAX including Southwest Airlines, United and most recently Gol (60 aircraft), TUI Travel (75) and flyDubai, which committed to 100 MAX 8s at the recent Dubai Airshow. Both Boeing and Airbus have benefitted from the decisions by some carriers, such as American Airlines, Norwegian Air Shuttle and Turkish Airlines, to place big orders for both the MAX and the neo. Reuters and Asian media have reported that Boeing has signed purchase agreements with Chinese and Indian airlines, the latter including Jet Airways and SpiceJet, for significant numbers of MAX aircraft. However, the manufacturer has not confirmed this. With the forecast growth in the single-aisle market over the next 20 years – Boeing predicts 24,670 aircraft in the category and Airbus 20,602 – the competition between the MAX and neo will remain fierce.

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COMMERCIAL BOEING 777X

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Boeing has launched new versions of its 777, as Mark Broadbent reports Folding Wingtips oeing has re-booted cabin will be around 1.6ft (0.5m) wider than

the 777 with two new variants, the 777-8X and 777-9X. The aircraft were launched at November’s Dubai Airshow with 259 commitments, from four airlines, worth a combined $95 billion at list price in the largest ever commercial jetliner launch by dollar value. More than half the orders, 150 aircraft, came from Emirates. Qatar Airways ordered 50, Lufthansa signed for 34 -9Xs and Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways committed to 17 -9Xs and eight -8Xs. Design work is underway and Boeing says both variants’ configurations will be finalised in 2015. The -9X will be developed first, with production starting in 2017, maiden flight in 2019 and service entry in 2020. The -8X will

the current 777-300ER’s. The company will transfer cabin features and technologies to the 777X from the 787 Dreamliner, such as larger windows to provide more ambient light, recessed overhead storage bins and sculpted surfaces. Video and photo impressions show the cabin with Dreamlinerstyle LED mood lighting in the ceiling and the company says it intends to maximise cockpit commonality with the 787.

enter service around 18 months after the -9X. The new 777s have been in the works for some time. Market studies started in 2010 and initial concepts emerged the following year. The Boeing board gave its Commercial Airplanes division authority to begin offering the aircraft to the market in April 2013, allowing initial discussions to begin with potential customers on pricing and orders.

(470kN) of thrust, making it the most powerful turbofan ever developed, while having 10% less specific fuel consumption than the GE90-115B. The 10:1 bypass ratio and a 27:1 compressor pressure ratio will give it an overall engine pressure ratio of 60:1. The turbine blades, combustor liners, first-stage turbine shrouds and part of the casing will all be made from ceramic matrix composites (CMCs). These materials use silicon carbide which, says GE, allow high performance while cutting weight. They are one-third the weight of nickel super-alloys used in aircraft engines normally, but can work in temperatures as high as 2,400oF (1,315oC), making the engine more durable. GE says testing of the high-pressure compressor, fan blades and fan system has already started. One of its targets for 2014 is to demonstrate the benefits of the CMCs. An engine core test will follow in 2015 before a design freeze, the first engine ground tests in 2016, flight tests in 2017 and certification in 2018.

Specs The 777-9X will seat 400 passengers and have an 8,200nm (15,185km) range. Boeing says there will not be any direct twinengine competitor for the same number of passengers carried. The 777-8X will seat 350 and be capable of 9,300nm (17,220 km) flights, meaning it’ll be able to operate from New York to Singapore non-stop. The aircraft has been designed to compete with the Airbus A350-1000. Apart from the wingspan (explained later), Boeing hasn’t yet released any official 777X size specifications. However, it says the

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Engines The 777Xs will be powered by the General Electric GE9X which, with a 132-inch (3.352m) fan diameter, will be the biggest airliner turbofan ever made. Boeing selected GE in May 2013 to be the single-source engine supplier for the 777X after discounting a rival proposal from Rolls-Royce and its RB3025. The GE9X will produce up to 105,000lbs

The 777Xs will feature a carbon fibrereinforced plastic laminar flow wing based on the 787. On the ground, the wing will have the same 212ft 9in (64.8m) span as the current 777s. But in flight the span will increase to 233ft 5in (71.1m), thanks to one of the most important differences between the 777X and its family predecessors: folding wingtips. Early in the 777X’s conceptual development, Boeing decided the aircraft should have a wider wing to increase surface area and maximise aerodynamic efficiency. Under International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) design codes, the wider an aircraft’s wingspan, the greater the safety separation required between aircraft and ground objects like buildings and vehicles. Widening the wingspan would push the 777X from ICAO Code E, where the existing versions sit, to Code F – the same classification as the Boeing 747-8 and

Airbus A380. But Boeing still wanted the wider wing performance. Its solution was to create 21ft (6.4m) raked, folding wingtips. For ground operations these sections will be folded upwards, giving the aircraft the same wingspan on the ground as the current models. When the 777X reaches the runway they will be lowered, extending the wingspan to its full width for flight. This design, says Boeing, will allow the 777Xs to have the best of both worlds: conformity with Code E and optimal in-flight performance.

Efficiency Both the wing design and GE9X play key roles in the 777X business case. Boeing claims these, along with aerodynamic refinements (including a hybrid laminar flow control vertical tail and natural laminar flow engine nacelles), will make the aircraft 20% more fuel efficient per seat than the 777-300ER. It also claims the 777X will burn 12% less fuel per seat, emit 12% less carbon dioxide and be 10% cheaper to

BOEING 777X COMMERCIAL operate than the A350. Equally important as efficiency to network airlines is the revenue brought by cargo that their widebody aircraft carry underneath the cabin. Part of the 777-300ER’s market appeal (nearly 1,000 have been sold) is that it can hold 44 industry-standard LD3 cargo pallets. Boeing has not yet disclosed specific figures, but it’s expected the 777Xs will increase the -300ER’s underfloor capacity to help airlines boost cargo revenue. The company has claimed already that the 777X will be able to carry 17 tonnes more cargo than the A350.

Gulf Influence Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways’ orders accounted 777X commitments These airlines have respective Dubai, home bases,

The Boeing 777X will feature raked, folding wingtips. Boeing

for 90% of the announcedat Dubai. grown by using their Abu Dhabi and Doha strategically located at the crossroads of Asia and Europe, to feed passengers and cargo between east and west. Their success translates to clout: they’re some of the first airline manufacturers turn to when consulting the market about new designs. Business media reports say the three carriers were involved closely in the 777X’s initial development and Emirates President Tim Clark told the Wall Street Journal: “We’ve been pushing Boeing hard, I make no secret of the fact that for three or four years now we’ve been knocking on the door of Boeing to get them to do this [the 777X].” The Gulf carriers require aircraft with both long range, to reach destinations in North America and Asia which are 14-17 hours’ flying time away, and high performance, to cope with temperatures at their home bases. However, Clark believes the 777X isn’t tailored just for Gulf airlines. He told Flightglobal at the Dubai Airshow: “We think been built for the industry.” notable that Lufthansa also early to the 777X, showing Gulf airlines may not and performance carriers they still widebodies.

it’s It was committed that while nonrequire the range of Middle Eastern want the efficiencies of new It would seem Boeing’s hope is that the 777X hits a sweet spot between performance and efficiency. The emergence of a replacement market for older 777s is significant in this respect as airlines look to replace ageing and increasingly inefficient aircraft. Scott Fancher, Boeing Vice-President and General Manager of Airplane Development, believes the 777Xs “fit in the heart of where we think the market will go”. While Clark predicts the 777X will “sell like hot cakes”. The stage is set for the next act in the on-going orders competition between Boeing and Airbus as the companies go head-to-head with their respective 777X and A350. AIR International will analyse the widebody aircraft market in greater detail in a future issue.

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COMMERCIAL DASSAULT FALCON 5X

Dassault Falc I Mike Jerram describes Dassault’s latest business jet

n 2006 Dassault Aviation’s then chairman and CEO Charles Edelstenne revealed that the French company was working on a new business jet, codenamed SMS (Super Mid-Size). It would replace the tri-jet Falcon 50 and compete with the Bombardier Challenger 300 and Gulfstream G250. Subsequently, few details emerged until October 21, 2013, at the National Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition in Las Vegas. There, Eric Trappier, who had succeeded Edelstenne as chairman and CEO in the previous January, unveiled the company’s latest business jet. Not an SMS, but a new-generation aircraft that will head the company’s fleet: the Falcon 5X.

Biggest Investment Describing the aircraft as “a gamechanger...a new benchmark for the creative use of advanced technology in business aviation”, Trappier said “the Falcon 5X

represents our biggest investment since the beginning of Falcon programmes, [demonstrating] our commitment to maintaining the technology leadership that we have displayed in this market since our first business jet (the Mystère/Falcon 20) flew 50 years ago. By using design and manufacturing software and systems pioneered by Dassault, we have been able to build a larger, more comfortable and much more economical to operate aircraft compared to others in its class [fuel efficiency will be as much as 50% greater than any competing aircraft, he says]. It is a new benchmark for the creative use of technology in business, an all-new, ultraefficient, most advanced technology and largest Falcon jet yet.” To date, development reportedly has cost more than $1 billion. What happened to the SMS? When the market for SMS business jets slumped in 20082009, and prospects for recovery in that sector seemed ill-starred for many years, Dassault began a total rethink, opting instead for ‘clean sheet’ design of a large-cabin jet that would top its range and be the biggest Falcon so far.

Design The 5X’s airframe is conventional, mostly of metal, with composites used in the tail unit, engine nacelles, fairings and other nonstructural components. The wing design is all-new with a 33° sweepback and for the first time will be built with winglets from the outset, those on current models having initially been developed as retrofits before being incorporated on production aircraft. Its all-digital control system will feature another first on a business jet – ‘flaperons’ that combine the functions of flaps, spoilers

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and airbrakes in a single control surface. The Falcon 5X will be powered by two Snecma Safran Silvercrest turbofans, each rated at 11,450lb (50.93kN) for take-off, giving a combined maximum thrust that is some 3,700lb (16.46kN) more than that of the Falcon 7X’s three Pratt & Whitney Canada PW307As. “The Silvercrest is 15% more fuel-efficient than other engines in its power class,” Trappier says. “Emissions are dramatically lower than current standards, and it is remarkably quiet.” Dassault and Snecma have a history of collaboration, the engine manufacturer supplies the Rafale fighter’s M88 powerplants. The Silvercrest has been undergoing static testing at the engine manufacturer’s facility at Villarroche since 2012, and was expected to make its first flight aboard a Gulfstream II test-bed before the end of 2013. A total of eight Silvercrests – four static, four flying – will take part in the test programme, scheduled to result in certification of the engine in 2015.

High Specification The circular cross-section fuselage’s

alcon 5X diameter is 244mm (9.5in) larger than that of any previous Falcon Jet. While the cabin is some 152mm (6in) shorter than that of the 7X, its volume is 14% greater, providing passengers with 127mm (5in) greater headroom and a 152-183mm wide (5-6 inches) aisle. It will accommodate 14 to 16 passengers in three compartments: a four-seat club seating section at the front, four-seat ‘conference’ mid-section, and a rear lounge for six passengers whose seats fold flat, creating sleeping accommodation for long-haul overnight flights. This section can also be outfitted as a private ‘state room’ with electro-chromic filters that turn bulkhead partitions into privacy curtains. The cabin has 28 oval-shaped cabin windows, which will be the largest ever fitted to a Falcon, providing passengers with more natural light than any current production business jet, Dassault claims. All passenger seats will have Wi-Fi and facilities for using iPads and iPhones as inflight entertainment monitors. Cabin altitude will be maintained at 6,000ft (1,829m) at the aircraft’s maximum operating altitude of 51,000ft (15,545m). Up front, the Falcon 5X has new nose contours and cockpit windows that are 32% larger than on previous models, improving crew vision during take offs and landings. The flight deck is taller, and crew seats have a 130° recline function for short rest breaks. A slide-out ‘jump seat’ is also standard. The aircraft will feature a new development of the Falcon range’s Honeywell Primus-based EASy III cockpit, with four flat-panel display screens. Israel’s Elbit Systems is providing a head-up display (HUD) combining enhanced vision and synthetic vision functions that

draw data from an infrared camera mounted in the aircraft’s nose to display terrain in total darkness, fog or dense haze. It will provide a high-resolution view of the outside world even in zero visibility weather conditions. Initially the Falcon 5X will come with a single HUD, but Dassault plans to offer dual HUDs in the future, with the eventual aim to gain approval for them as primary flight displays, a function not yet available on any business jet.

5X Partners Dassault will be responsible for manufacturing the aircraft’s forward and rear fuselage sections. New, more automated manufacturing techniques and streamlined production processes will reduce the aircraft’s part count, reduce airframe weight and speed up the production process, the manufacturer says. Programme partners announced so far include Corse Composite Aéronautiques (wing-to-fuselage fairings); Daher-Socata (centre fuselage), Fokker (composite tail unit), GKN (wing control surfaces), Hamilton Sundstrand (auxiliary power unit), Héroux Devtek (nose and main landing gears), Meggitt Systems (brake-by-wire system), Potez (main cabin door), and SABCA (rear lower centre fuselage section). With a predicted maximum range of 5,200nm (9,630km) with full fuel, three crew and eight passengers, standard National Business

Length overall: 25.17m (82ft 7in) Wingspan: 25.96m (85ft 1in)

All images Dassault

FALCON 5X SPECIFICATIONS Height overall: 7.47m (24ft 6in) Wing area: 72.37m2 (779sq ft) Cabin length: 11.78m (38ft 8in) Cabin height: 1.98m (6ft 6in) Cabin width: 2.59m (8ft 6in) Cabin volume: 50.12m3 (1,770cu ft) Baggage volume: 4.39m3 (155cu ft) Max zero-fuel weight: 65,090kg (143,500lb) Max fuel weight: 12,791kg (28,200lb) Max ramp weight: 31,661kg (69,800lb) Max take-off weight: 31,570kg (69,600lb) Max landing weight: 29,982kg (66,100lb) Balanced field take-off length: 1,600m (5,250ft) Approach speed: 105kts (194km/h) Maximum operating speed: Mach 0.90 (980km/h) Max certified altitude: 51,000ft (15,545m) Range at Mach 0.80, with max fuel, eight passengers, three crew, NBAA IFR reserves: 5,200nm (9,630km)

Aviation Association reserves, and cruising at Mach 0.80-0.85, the Falcon 5X will be able to fly nonstop between such city pairs as LosAngeles-London, London-Tokyo, New YorkTel Aviv, São Paulo-Chicago, JohannesburgGeneva, or Paris-Beijing. Dassault also aims to have the aircraft certified for London City Airport’s 5.5° steep approach. Components for the first Falcon 5X are currently manufactured at several Dassault facilities. The aircraft’s maiden flight is scheduled for the first quarter of 2015, with certification planned for late the following year and first customer deliveries in mid2017. The initial selling price is expected to be $45 million at the 2013 dollar rate.

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COMMERCIAL EMBRAER E-JET E”

New Gener Sérgio Santana and Santiago Rivas detail Embraer’s new generation of E-Jet called the E2

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razilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer announced its new series of airliners, named the E-175E2, E-190E2, and E-195E2 at the 2013 Paris Air Show. The E2 series is currently in development with all three variants intended to offer low operating costs, greater passenger comfort, commonality with other E-jet variants, and yield similar costs per seat than larger re-engined narrowbodies such as the Airbus A320neo and the Boeing 737MAX. Embraer’s focus for the E2 series appears to be the larger airliner sector, best indicated by its decision not to develop a new version of the smaller E-170. The E-175E2 is expected to enter service in 2020, while the E-190E2 and E-195E2 will follow in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

E2 Details Compared to the baseline E-jets, the E2 series feature new wings with higher aspect ratio, inducing less drag and

greater fuel efficiency and bigger spans, a re-designed wingtip that is slightly turned upwards but without winglets and stretched fuselages. Each will be powered by Pratt & Whitney PurePower geared turbofan high by-pass ratio engines. A geared turbofan has a reduction gearbox between the fan and the low pressure (LP) shaft allowing the LP to run at a higher rotational speed. This requires fewer stages in the LP turbine and LP compressor, which yields greater efficiency and reduced weight, along with lower fuel consumption, emissions, maintenance costs and noise. All variants of the E2 use the same fourth generation full fly-by-wire digital closed-loop control which, according to Embraer, saves weight, increases pilot control, improves aircraft performance and provides complete envelope protection in all phases for a smoother flight. The series will also feature Honeywell’s Primus Epic 2 integrated avionics system providing 330 x 254mm (13 x 10in) large multifunction displays, advanced graphics, wireless connectivity, SmartView, cockpit

display of traffic information, IntuVue 3D weather radar, SmartRunway, SmartLanding and Honeywell’s Next Generation Flight Management System (NGFMS). The E2 passenger cabins are completely redesigned, with more space for baggage, a new in-flight entertainment system, satellite TV and radio, and Wi-Fi. Each Embraer E2 variant has components produced by different manufacturers: Priestmangoode from the UK and Embraer are jointly developing the aircraft cabin. German company Liebherr provides the control systems for the flaps and slats, and Moog produces the fly-by-wire system. Rockwell Collins is responsible for the horizontal stabiliser control system while UTC Aerospace Systems supplies the wheels, brakes, APU, and electrical system. Intertechnique provides the engine and APU fuel feed, pressure refuelling, fuel transfer, fuel tank inerting and ventilation system, fuel gauging and control, and Crane Aerospace & Electronics made the electronic control module for landing gear, brake control systems and proximity sensors. Triumph manufactures the fuselage

The flight deck of the new Embraer E-Jet E2 family is dominated by four large multi-functional displays. Embraer

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eration E-Jet Embraer

segments, rudder and elevators and Aernnova Aerospace makes the vertical and horizontal stabilisers. Finally, FACC designs and builds the composite ailerons and spoilers, and Sonaca provides the carbon-fibre flaps and metallic slats.

Programme Status Over the next 20 years Embraer forecasts a worldwide demand for 6,400 commercial jets with up to 130-seat capacity. The Brazilian airframer has won a 42% share in this segment with more than 1,200 E-Jets ordered. Over 950 E-Jets have

been delivered to 65 customers in 47 countries to date. On September 13, 2013, the 1,000th E-Jet was rolled out of the assembly line, nine years after the first aircraft entered commercial service. Embraer has two launch customers for its new E2 family. The US regional carrier SkyWest is launch customer for the 80-seat E-175E2 with a firm order for 100 and options for 100 more, in a deal valued at $9.4 billion at list prices. Lessor ILFC (International Lease Finance Corporation) is launching the 97-seat E-190E2 and 118-seat E-195E2. ILFC has signed a letter of intent

(LoI) covering 100 aircraft, split between 50 E-190E2s and 50 E-195E2s, with 25 firm orders and 25 options for each variant. Embraer also has LoIs totalling 65 E2 aircraft from unnamed customers based in Africa, Asia, Europe and South America. The LoIs cover 15 firm orders and 50 options. Orders placed to date with Embraer for its E2 family are a major endorsement of the new type. The E-195E2 is competing with Bombardier’s CS100, which has gained 63 firm orders, 49 options and 17 LoIs since its launch in 2008.

E2 SPECIFICATIONS E-175E2

E-190E2

E-195E2

30.80m (101ft 8in) v E-175 26m (85ft 4in)

33.50m (109ft 10in) v E-190 28.72m (94ft 3in)

33.50m (109ft 10in) v E-195 28.72m (94ft 3in)

Length

32.30m (106ft) v E-175 31.66m (103ft 11in)

36.20m (118ft 10in)

41.50m (136.2ft) v E-195 38.65m (126ft 9in)

Height

9.98m (32.7ft)

11.00m (36.1ft)

10.90m (35.8ft)

Wing Span

Maximum take-off weight

44,330kg (97,731lb)

56,900kg (125,443lb)

59,400kg (130,954lb)

Maximum landing weight

39,100kg (86,201lb)

49,950kg (109,018lb)

53,750kg (118,498lb)

Payload

10,310kg (22,730lb)

13,080kg (28,836lb)

15,150kg (33,400lb)

Maximum operating speed

Mach 0.82 (870km/h or 469kts)

Mach 0.82 (870km/h or 469kts)

Mach 0.82 (870km/h or 469kts)

Service ceiling

41,000ft (12,496m)

41,000ft (12,496m)

41,000ft (12.496m)

Range

1,920nm (3,556km)

2,800nm (5,186km)

2,000nm (3,700km)

Power

2 x PW1700Gs; 15,000-17,000lb (66.775.6kW) each

2 x PW1900Gs rated at 19,000-21,000lb (84.5-93.4kW) each

2x PW1900Gs rated at 21,000-23,000lb (93.4-102.3kW) each

Cabin configuration options

88 seats in single-class or 80 seats in a two-class fit

106 seats in single-class or 97 seats in a two-class fit

132 seats in a single-class or 118 seats in a two-class fit

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Kamov’s Six-Tonne Twin Russia hopes that having more Western parts in its new Ka-62 helicopter will boost the type’s export hopes. By Alexander Mladenov

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n 2014 there will be major developments in the Kamov Ka-62 programme. The new twin-engine helicopter will be put through its flight test campaign and achieve civil certification in Russia, before the first production examples are rolled-out ahead of initial customer deliveries in 2015. Unlike Kamov’s other models, which use co-axial rotors, the Ka-62 has a conventional design, with a five-blade main rotor and a shrouded (or fantail) assembly for the tail. This layout is intended to provide higher speed, a low level of vibration and a large internal cabin volume and, in turn, make the Ka-62 a commercially attractive option in a crowded medium twinengine helicopter market.

Development Three prototypes have been assembled at Kamov’s AAC Progress plant in Arsenyev, in the far eastern part of Russia, as well as a ground-based ‘iron bird’ static rig for systems testing. The maiden flight of the first Ka-62 (registered RA-62002, c/n 97876210102) was due to take place by the end of 2013. Testing will proceed throughout 2014 before type certification from Russian authorities follows towards the end of the year or in early 2015. The Ka-62’s chief

KA-62 FACTS AND FIGURES Passengers: 15 Passenger cabin height: 1.30m (4ft 2in) Passenger cabin length: 4.10m (13ft 4in) Passenger cabin width: 1.75m (5ft 8in) Range: 600km (324nm) Maximum take-off weight: 6,500kg (14,300lb) Maximum useful load: 2,000kg (4,400lb) Maximum load on the external sling: 2,500kg (5,500lb)

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designer, Alexander Vagin, said Kamov is targeting certification of the type by the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) soon after it receives its Russian type certificate.

Western Standards An advantage for the helicopter where EASA clearance is concerned is it features a wide range of components and systems manufactured by Western European companies. The engine is a Turbomeca Ardiden 3G, the fuel system has been made by French firm Aerazur Zodiac and the main and intermediate transmission gearboxes have been supplied by Zoerkler of Austria. Vagin explained: “It’s an entirely civil helicopter and we have had a lot of freedom to select the best systems available on the market, applying the price/performance selection criteria. The Ka-62 is being offered for export worldwide and there is no compromise on quality. Our task is to bring to the market a high-quality helicopter at a competitive price, with performance equal to that of the best members of the medium class today.” Kamov’s design team used experience gained in Ka-60 Kasatka military utility helicopter’s development, which stalled owing to problems with its Saturn RD-600V

engines. The most important lesson rolled into the Ka-62 was the use of a fuselage with improved structural integrity and an energyabsorbing undercarriage. The Ka-62 also features a bird strike-resistant windshield and redundant main systems as well as main and intermediate gearboxes with 30-minute run-dry capability.

Engine The engine selection was an important consideration in ensuring the Ka-62 is fuelefficient and offers low maintenance costs. All the possible options were evaluated before the Ardiden 3G was picked. The engine, rated at 1,750shp (1,300Kw), features dual-channel full authority digital engine control, the capability of operating on one engine at altitudes of up to 9,500ft (2,900m) in International Standard Atmosphere (ISA) conditions (the baseline temperature of the atmosphere), or 6,500ft (2,000m) in ISA+20oC conditions (that is, 20oC above the baseline). With 5,000 hours between overhauls, the Ardiden 3G supplies extra power to ensure good performance in hot-and-high conditions. The engine is slated to receive its EASA type certificate in 2014. Compared with the Ka-60, the Ka-62 has an improved aerodynamic profile to generate more lift and bigger passenger cabin

KAMOV KA-62 COMMERCIAL

Alexander Mladenov

windows that can be used as emergency ‘push-out’ exits. Vagin claims that the cabin volume of 9.5m3 (335.4ft3) is unbeatable in its class.

Fantail The Ka-62’s size is on the limit of where a fantail type tail rotor system can be regarded as an effective design. A fantail was selected due to its extra safety benefits when operating in urban environments, where helicopters are required to land in confined locations, often surrounded by people, tall trees and buildings. In case of tail rotor, intermediate gearbox or rotor shaft failure, the large fin provides enough directional stability to allow a rolling landing at a speed of 43kts (80km/h). The energy-absorbing undercarriage, which uses a tail wheel, is also designed to provide a high degree of stability during emergency rolling landings.

Composites

Oil and Gas Market The Ka-62 is targeted primarily at Mi-8T/P operators in Russia offering passenger/ VIP transport to the country’s vast and growing oil and gas production facilities. The Ka-62 is seen as an ideal replacement for older examples of the fuel-thirsty Mi-8 as it is broadly comparable in passenger capability and payload, but offers much higher

passenger safety standards. In addition to the baseline passenger version, a number of specialised Ka-62s are planned for VIP, search and rescue, medical and utility transport. To date, the Ka-62 has attracted few firm orders from civilian customers. Seven were ordered in December 2012 by Brazil’s Atlas Taxi Aereo, which are slated for delivery between the first quarter of 2015 and first quarter of 2016. This contract also includes an option for another seven machines. Colombian operator Vertical de Aviación is the second customer – it placed an order for five in August 2013. However, the programme is expected to have success in the near-to-medium future thanks chiefly to interest from Russia’s ministries of defence, interior and emergency situations. All operate significant numbers of ageing Mi-8s that will need replacement in the next decade, and the Ka-62 is a prime candidate to replace them. The Ka-62 is receiving developmental funding from several streams. Russian Helicopters provides the majority and there is also additional finance by the Russian Government through a federal programme that supports civil aviation developments. When its flight testing is over and it achieves Russian certification, the Ka-62 is expected to be ordered by the Russian military for the utility transport and passenger missions as well as operations from Russian Navy ships. The latter would likely see the Ka-62 equipped with various mission suites for maritime operations and folding rotors and tail boom.

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Piotr Butowski

Around 60% of the Ka-62’s fuselage weight is made up of polymeric composites. The load-carrying main structure is manufactured from aluminium alloys and titanium while

composites are used in all the non-critical areas of the fuselage. Maintainability was among the principal design considerations and, to reduce operators’ workload, it has builtin test equipment, a health and usage monitoring system, easy access to main systems and controls and increased use of line-replaceable units for maximum interchangeability. The Ka-62 features an integrated avionics system, the KBO-62, supplied by Transas of St Petersburg. The helicopter is designed for single-pilot visual flight rules operation for cargo transport missions, but for instrument flight rules and passenger/VIP operations, it’ll require a two-pilot crew. The twin-engine helicopter is designed to operate in temperatures between -50oC and 45oC (-49oF to 113oF) to weather Russia’s extreme climatic conditions. The systems and engines can work without pre-start oil heating, and will be able to start in temperatures as low as -35oC (-31oF). The helicopter is designed to operate without hangar storage and from unpaved airfields and pads with minimal maintenance support.

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Atlas French

Henri-Pierre Grolleau reports from Base Aérienne 123 Orléans on the Armée de l’Air’s evaluation of the A400M Atlas

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ith the advent of the A400M, the Armée de l’Air (French Air Force) is at last renewing its tactical airlifter fleet. The ageing Transall C-160s and C-130H Hercules are all in need of replacement or modernisation and the delivery of the first Airbus Atlas to the Armée de l’Air, in early August 2013, heralded the start of a new era for the French tactical airlift community.

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Air Base Upgrade In order to accommodate the new aircraft, a complex upgrade programme has been launched at BA123 Orléans incorporating new buildings for the first squadron, the simulator/ training centre and the composite materials repair shop. A massive new hangar, called HM19 (Hangar Métallique 19), now dominates the landscape. Built to the latest standards, it can accommodate two A400Ms and includes an engine repair shop and a large storage area for spare parts, batteries and tyres. The older HM18 has been refurbished and adapted to house one Atlas and one Hercules or Transall simultaneously. The taxiways and aprons have also been upgraded and a new refuelling system with

underground pipes has been installed, the de-icing and engine run-up areas have been modernised, the runway used to practise tactical landings lengthened, and the control tower upgraded to the latest CLA2000 (Control Local d’Aérodrome 2000, or airfield local air traffic) standard. Finally, the main runway will be resurfaced and reinforced in 2017 to ensure that it remains operational for the foreseeable future.

The MEST As is the case with every new Armée de l’Air equipment, the Centre d’Expériences Aériennes Militaires (CEAM or military flight test centre) is the lead unit for the new airlifter’s service introduction. In 2009 a dedicated unit was set up within the CEAM

FRENCH A400M MILITARY Airbus Military

s to oversee the A400M’s development and entry into service. Called MEST (multinational entry into service team), it is now in charge of the A400M’s operational evaluation, the type’s initial operations, training of aircrews and maintainers, technical support and all documentation management. The first A400M aircrews and maintainers were selected carefully by the Armée de l’Air. For example, engineers come from a wide variety of backgrounds to share their experience: Xingu, Hercules, Transall, C-135FR Stratotanker and even Rafale. The first A400M instructors began training in early 2013. All selected personnel were highly experienced, with between 3,000 and 4,000 flying hours. They came from various

communities including CN235, Transall, Hercules, Airbus A340 (for their experience of the Airbus cockpit philosophy) and Rafale (for their fast jet background of tactical flight, using a modern self-defence/electronic warfare suite and the Link 16 datalink). Airbus Military was responsible for the initial training courses and ten pilots, four navigators/weapon system operators and eight loadmasters were trained in Toulouse, France, and Seville, Spain, by the company’s own instructors. The first four pilots graduated in April 2013 and the remaining six in July.

Pushing the Atlas to the Limit The initial cadre of personnel will push the A400M to its limit to ensure that the aircraft

fulfils the Armée de l’Air’s requirements. They are also responsible for writing the aircraft’s operating and maintenance manuals, a process which will be repeated for each new standard of the aircraft. The first two French A400Ms were delivered in the IOC (initial operating clearance) standard which features basic functionalities. The third A400M (for Turkey) and the fourth (for France) will be configured in improved SOC 1 (standard operating clearance 1) standard. SOC 1 incorporates an improved flight management system, initial electronic warfare modes and the capability to drop paratroopers and cargo. Each improved configuration standard will require further evaluation. The Armée de l’Air is conducting a

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MILITARY FRENCH A400M

BROTHERS IN ARMS The Armée de l’Air and the RAF are cooperating closely on the A400M Atlas programme. The RAF is due to accept its first Atlas in late 2014/early 2015 and four personnel (an engineering officer, logistician and two technicians) are already busy familiarising themselves with the type. They will be joined shortly by a pilot and a loadmaster. This collaboration is beneficial to both air arms with the nations sharing their operational experience to improve their respective operating procedures as part of a global process to boost interoperability. The two-way cooperation has included an exchange programme and the MEST’s deputy commander flying the C-130J with the RAF to gain invaluable experience of piloting a new generation glass-cockpit aircraft. The RAF has also invested in a cargo compartment simulator, to test loading procedures and train loadmasters, and France will have access to this equipment for its own needs. The RAF will receive 22 A400Ms.

rigorous operational evaluation. For each flight a three or four-page document is published, describing the content of the sortie in great detail. “The DGA [Direction Générale de l’Armement, the French Defence Procurement Agency] and the Armée de l’Air will work as a fully integrated team in order to avoid duplicating trials and to reduce costs,” explains Lt Col Paul Creuset, MEST Commanding Officer. “As a result, each sortie could be divided

into a test phase and an operational evaluation phase. This is the reason why the MEST includes three experimental test pilots, one flight test engineer and one flight test paratrooper. Initially, we only performed local flights [from/to Orléans] to finalise aircrew training and to carry out the first round of tests. We will soon switch to flights to other air bases in France and abroad to make sure that the A400M can deploy to, and operate from, other airfields

far from its support infrastructure. We will also determine how a typical detachment will be composed in terms of aircrews, maintenance personnel, support equipment and spare parts. “Once all basic skills are mastered, we will switch to advanced tactics; low-level penetration of hostile airspace, two-ship tactical flying, night-flying with night vision goggles, electronic warfare and reactions against threats. At a much later stage we will

1 Ministre de la Défense Jean-Yves Le Drian attended the delivery ceremony of the first Armée de l’Air A400M Atlas, 0007/F-RBAA, at BA123 Orléans on September 30. 2 Jean-Yves Le Drian names the first French A400M Ville d’Orléans. All images Armée de l’Air unless noted

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1

2

FRENCH A400M MILITARY

3

3 The first A400M Atlas for the Armée de l’Air, 0007, during a test flight from Seville-San Pablo Airport. Airbus Military 4 The A400M is equipped with a glass cockpit. 5 The Centre d’Expériences Aériennes Militaires is the lead unit for the new airlifter’s service introduction.

also perform air-to-air refuelling to ensure the A400M can be used as a tanker for fighters and EC725 Caracal helicopters.”

4

Maintenance Friendly Maintenance is a key aspect of operating every aircraft and, in the A400M, Airbus engineers have designed an aircraft that will be reliable and easy to service and repair. All A400M maintenance procedures will be evaluated by the MEST in the coming months. “For us, it will be a daunting task,” explains Lt Col Franck Baron, the MEST officer in charge of A400M maintenance and support. “Our technicians have identified a total of 1,458 tests that will have to be carried out to check all aspects of the maintenance and repair procedures. This will include towing, refuelling, engine, propeller or wheel changes, avionics LRU replacement, flap, rudder or APU replacement. To accelerate the process, our engineers will be divided into three teams and will work from 06.00 to 22.00, six days a week. We have adopted a paperless organisation and aircrews will sign the Armée de l’Air’s standard Form 11 electronically. This a totally new way of operating and aircrews and engineers will have to get used to that. “Many types of equipment – new and more powerful tractors to tow the heavier A400M, new higher-reaching elevating platforms to work on the tail, dedicated electronic support equipment – have been introduced for the Atlas and they will all have to undergo a thorough trial programme to 5 ensure that they are up to the job.” With two A400Ms now operational at Orléans, the Armée de l’Air is increasing its operational capabilities. The Atlas will officially become fully operational when six aircraft have been delivered which, according to the latest available information, should be in September 2014. With its longer range and increased payload, compared to the Transall C-160 and C-130H Hercules, the new aircraft will provide a much-needed boost in airlift capabilities at a time when a growing number of Transalls are withdrawn from use. The A400M’s state-ofthe-art self-defence/electronic warfare suite will provide a first entry capability in the most dangerous theatres of operation. In addition, the Atlas will allow the Armée de l’Air to minimise the use of chartered civilian airlifters (such as An-124s and Il-76s), reducing its operating costs significantly.

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MILITARY EMBRAER KC-390

KC-390 SPECIFICATIONS A mock-up of the KC-390’s cockpit layout. Embraer

Wing span: 35.05m (114ft 11in) Length overall: 35.20m (115ft 5in) Height overall: 12.15m (39ft 10in) Tail plane span: 12.24m (40ft 1in) Cargo compartment length: 12.68m (41ft 7in) Cargo compartment length: 18.54m (60ft 10in) Cargo compartment width: 3.35m (11ft) Cargo compartment height forward: 2.94m (9ft 10in) Cargo compartment height aft: 3.20m (10ft 6in) Max payload (tactical): 16,000kg (35,274lb) Max payload (logistical): 26,000kg (57,320lb) Fuel weight (wing): 23,400kg (51,588lb) Max take-off weight (tactical): 67,000kg (147,710lb) Max take-off weight (normal): 74,400kg (164,024lb) Max take-off weight (logistical): 81,000kg (178,575lb)

L

Max cruising speed: 464kts (861km/h) Maximum speed: 529kts (980km/h)

atin America’s main aviation industry, based in Argentina and Brazil, has developed several transport aircraft. The FMA Ae.T.1 (a design from Argentina in the 1930s) was the first, but the most successful was the Embraer EMB 110 Bandeirante designed by Frenchman Max Holste. The prototype EMB 110 made its maiden flight in October 1965 and its success gave the Brazilian aviation industry a major boost as 501 aircraft were built. Almost 50 years after launching the Bandeirante, Embraer is ready to start construction of its most ambitious military project: the KC-390. This new medium tactical transport is being marketed by Embraer as an alternative to the Lockheed Martin C-130J Hercules and in particular a replacement for old versions of the Herk, including those operated by the Brazilian Air Force (Força

design changes. These covered many of the parts common to the E170 family including the tail unit and the wing. In addition the air force specified that all of its aircraft have an air-refuelling capability, and the latter specification changed the designation from C-390 to KC-390. The programme was officially launched on April 14, 2009 and on July 21 that year the Brazilian Air Force signed a letter of intent for 28 KC-390s. The aircraft will replace the C-130H Hercules fleet operated by the 1º/1º Grupo de Transporte and the 1º Grupo de Transporte de Tropa, both based at Rio de Janeiro-Galeão/Antônio Carlos Jobim International Airport. As part of its expansion plan, the Brazilian Air Force is expected to establish new units in the Amazon region.

Aérea Brasileira or FAB). When production of the Bandeirante and Brasilia ended, Embraer had no dedicated military transport type in its portfolio, offering only military versions of passenger aircraft such as the ERJ145 and E170, mostly for VIP and special mission roles. More recently the company offered a version of the Phenom business jet configured for surveillance missions.

review ended in March 2013, the company gave the go ahead for construction of two prototypes; their first flights are expected in late 2014. Embraer Defense & Security president, Luiz Carlos Aguiar, stated at the 2013 Latin America Aerospace and Defence (LAAD) exhibition in Brazil that the company’s plan is to deliver the first KC-390 to the Brazilian Air Force in 2016. During the development phase, Embraer engineers flew operational sorties with the Brazilian Air Force to gain experience of missions on which the KC-390 will be tasked. The cockpit will be armoured (with plates provided by Aerotron), have large windows, five 15.1-inch (383mm) multi-function displays, an enhanced vision system, a synthetic vision system and a HUD, all

Service ceiling: 36,000ft (10,973m) Range with max payload: 1,200nm (2,222km) Maximum ferry range: 3,100nm (5,778km) Power: 2 x IAE V2500-E5s rated at 31,330lb (139.6kN)

Advanced Design Today the KC-390 and the new E2 family of airliners are Embraer’s most advanced projects. Once the KC-390’s critical design

A Brazilian P C-390 to KC-390 In 2007 Embraer decided to develop the C-390, using as many parts common to the E190 family. The first concept designs for the C-390 showed what looked like an E190 with an enlarged fuselage and high wing. The following year, the Brazilian Government issued its National Defense Strategy and the air force backed the C-390 but requested

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manufactured by AEL Sistemas. The KC390 also features a Rockwell Collins Pro Line Fusion avionics system, two side-stick controls and a comprehensive self-defence suite comprising chaff/flare dispensers, radar warning receiver, a laser warning system, missile approach warning system and directional infrared countermeasures, all supplied by AEL Sistemas. Other suppliers include: BAE Systems (flight control computers and fly-by-wire system), Cobham (air-refuelling pods and auxiliary fuel tanks), DRS Defense Solutions (cargo movement and release system), ELEB (undercarriage design and production), Esterline Control Systems (autothrottle), Goodrich Corporation (electrostatic, back-up electric and electronic actuators), HispanoSuiza (emergency electric energy generation system), Liebherr-Aerospace (environmental

EMBRAER KC-390 MILITARY

Embraer’s KC-390 is the only military transport aircraft currently under development in Latin America. Santiago Rivas and Sergio Santana review the programme

and cabin pressure systems), LH Collus (troop seats and stretchers), Messier-BugattiDowty (wheels, brake wheels) and Selex Galileo (Gabbiano mission radar).

KC-390 Prospects According to Embraer’s latest forecast for the medium tactical transport market, 728 planes are required in 77 countries with a total value of more than $50 billion. Africa has about 45% of the market and Southeast Asia 27.2%. The figures exclude the United States, Russia and China, because each one builds its own tactical transport aircraft, and Cuba and Iran because of arms embargoes. With just 13% of the world market, South America is the region in which the KC-390 is most likely to succeed. The main aerospace factories in Argentina (FAdeA, Fábrica

Argentina de Aviones), Colombia (CIAC, Corporación de la Industria Aeronáutica Colombiana) and Chile (ENAER, Empresa Nacional de Aeronáutica de Chile) produce main components, including the fuselage and cargo ramp. All three countries require a medium tactical transport aircraft to replace their C-130 Hercules fleets and have shown great interest in buying KC-390s, although no firm orders have been placed. Other potential customers in the region are Ecuador, Mexico and Peru. The forward and aft section 1 will be made in Botucatu, São Paulo state, while the wing panels, longerons, horizontal stabilisers, central section and undercarriage fairing will all be made in Portugal. The aft section 2 will be manufactured by Aero Vodochody, in the Czech Republic, the tail cone by FAdeA,

Embraer

n Promise

Argentina, and some command surfaces by Aernnova in Brazil. Final assembly will occur in Gavião Peixoto, in São Paulo state. Embraer expects to receive the first firm order from one of the countries participating in the programme before the middle of 2014. Currently, letters of intent have been signed for 60 aircraft; 28 for Brazil, 12 for Colombia, six for Argentina, six for Chile, six for Portugal and two for the Czech Republic. At last year’s LAAD exhibition, Embraer released details on the development of a search and rescue version and a possible firefighting role for KC-390. With attention focussed on constructing and testing the two prototype aircraft, Embraer is betting on its entry into a new sector of the military market, despite the competition posed by Lockheed Martin and its proven and trusted Hercules.

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MILITARY BOEING F-15SE SILENT EAGLE

Silent Eagle

F

David C Isby considers the future of Boeing’s F-15SE Silent Eagle or the Boeing F-15SE Silent Eagle, 2014 will be its make-or-break year. The aircraft had been the only competitor in the Republic of Korea Air Force (RoKAF) FX-III (fighter experimental) competition for 60 fighters. But, in September 2013, South Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration said it

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was to restart the bidding process, with the winning aircraft replacing RoKAF McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantoms and Northrop F-5s due for retirement between 2017 and 2021. If the RoKAF reverses its decision, this year will see the start of intense testing of the F-15SE in an effort to meet the demanding delivery schedule. Boeing has advocated, since September, a split order for two fighters but that is not an option the RoKAF has used extensively.

Previously, the Silent Eagle had been in the running for the Japanese F-X competition, but this was won by Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Lightning II. It has also been offered to other potential customers in Asia and the Middle East. Israel was reportedly interested in the design, but decided against an order. Another possible major customer is Qatar, with a requirement for up to 72 aircraft.

Silent History First announced in 2009, the Boeingfunded F-15SE design was one of three major competitors for the South Korean FX-III requirement, along with the Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II and the Eurofighter Typhoon. After an extensive RoKAF evaluation, in September the F-15SE was announced as the only competitor to meet the programme’s budget of 8.3 trillion won ($7.2 billion). The decision met with public criticism, most notably from retired RoKAF generals (15 signed an open letter on the issue), stating that the basic F-15SE design was dated and its stealth capabilities inadequate. This made the F-35A the only viable option to meet the FX-III requirement, despite its failure to be selected in 2013. While the US Department of Defense (DoD) had limited its public statements to an RoK announcement, it would approve the export of either the F-35A or F-15SE. In practice the DoD and the US Air Force have, behind the scenes, made it clear that the best way to achieve economies of scale and commonality is to permit export customers to buy aircraft that are as closely configured to US variants as is possible.

e

Forecast Only a change in RoK policy could revive the Silent Eagle’s fortune. The RoKAF is concerned about a shortfall in its operational capability between the retirement of F-4s and F-5s and the service entry of a new fighter. It may be possible to extend the service life of some of the legacy aircraft. The feasibility of extending the service life of RoKAF fighters was given when the RoK offered to transfer a squadron of F-5Es to Indonesia in 2013. The offer was declined.

Analysis Aside from Boeing’s technology demonstrator F-15E1, if the RoKAF or Qatar does not order the F-15SE it is unlikely the manufacturer will build a prototype. Israel’s decision to order two squadrons of F-35As has, effectively, precluded additional investment in F-15s for long-range strike missions. Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) has been heavily involved in the design, development and planned production of the F-15SE. The 80% commonality with RoKAF F-15K Slam Eagles and its two-seat configuration are seen as real advantages for the F-15SE design, particularly for long-range strike missions against transient targets such as mobile missile launchers.

Policy and Politics Policy and political considerations weigh against the F-15SE including the commitment to indigenous production and technology transfer associated with the Typhoon and the emphasis on stealth provided by the F-35. These were key performance parameters (KPPs) of the original FX-III requirement and are seen as the main reason for the new competition, despite RoKAF concerns over further delays. In addition, the fact the fifth-generation F-35 will be operated by both the US and Japan and that China is developing the stealthy J-20 fighter, the Lightning II, would provide the RoK with commonality as well as prestige. The RoKAF has given consideration to US DoD interests in its procurement decisions. The F-15SE would not be in production for the US military and therefore, if ordered, unique to the RoKAF – unlike the F-35. A RoKAF order would also reduce per-unit costs through economies of scale. While the DoD has stated it would approve the export of either or both types, the RoKAF’s perceived preference is for the F-35 which would also mitigate against a split order for two types to meet the FX-III requirement.

Description The two-seat F-15SE is a development of the F-15K Slam Eagle currently in service with the RoKAF, incorporating elements of the F-15SG operated by the Republic of Singapore and the F-15SA under development for Saudi Arabia. The F-15SE uses, what Boeing characterises

as, the highest level of stealth technology that the US government would approve for export. The aircraft’s forward-aspect stealth features include internal weapons bays in its conformal fuel tanks (CFT) and, the most noticeable feature, 15° inward-canted fins. However, a final F-15SE design may omit the latter. Boeing claims that an F-15SE without external tanks would hold 950 US gallons (3,600 litres) less fuel with a 180-200nm (330-370km) shorter radius of action than an F-15K. The upside is the Silent Eagle’s ability to internally carry up to four air-to-air or air-to-surface weapons.

All images Boeing

Rather than place an order for the F-15SE, as was thought likely in September, the RoKAF announced a new competition, with potentially higher spending and involving a smaller number of aircraft. These terms appear to favour the F-35A. A decision is expected by early 2014.

Current Status Testing on elements of the design, such as the upgraded CFTs incorporating weapons bays, has been carried out in wind tunnels and in flight on modified versions of earlier F-15s. The first flight of Boeing’s F-15E1 technology demonstrator took place on July 8, 2010. If the RoKAF orders the F-35A to meet its FX-III requirement, it is uncertain whether Boeing will continue to fund development of the F-15SE. The company is more likely to concentrate on investing in upgrades to the F/A-18E, F/A-18F Super Hornet. The future of the upgraded CFTs, being developed with Korean Airspace Industries (KAI), is also uncertain. Because of the high level of industry participation within the RoKAF, and the CFT’s potential for inclusion in a mid-life upgrade of the F-15K, it is possible that development may continue.

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F 35II Lightning David C Isby reviews the status of the Joint Strike Fighter

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F-35 LIGHTNING II MILITARY

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n 2014, the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) will progress towards its initial operational capability (IOC), planned for 2016-2017. Software and flight testing will be the main developmental issues likely to be encountered in 2014. The F-35’s primary policy and managerial issues will challenge its Joint Program Office (JPO) and Lockheed Martin to decrease unit costs while simultaneously dealing with the uncertain impact of US budget sequestration and what are likely to be prolonged cuts in resources. The F-35’s Block 2B software, which provides operational capability, will be installed throughout the fleet in 2014. Block

3i software, the objective build that will provide integration with the ALIS (Autonomic Logistics Information System) and enable network-centric operations, will at the same time become the focus of development. Software transitions will be among the key events in 2014. “Software is still the number one risk of the programme,” said US Air Force Lt Gen Chris Bogdan, the F-35 programme manager. “Software is tricky, hard and the number one thing that paces the programme.”

Forecast Barring a major setback (especially in the software testing or validation) that could throw the entire programme back into

F-35B test aircraft BF-01 takes off from the deck of the USS Wasp (LHD-1) on August 15, 2013. All images Lockheed Martin

jeopardy, the F-35 is likely to progress in 2014 as its successes offset some of the damage to its image inflicted by years of rising costs, weight and structure issues. As with other US military programmes, the F-35 is likely to suffer from continued sequestration, making long-standing plans for development and the rampingup of the low-rate initial production (LRIP) unachievable. Near-term delays or reductions in the quantities ordered, such as the USAF’s November 2013 announcement that it would postpone 24 F-35As already scheduled in the five-year procurement cycle, will have an impact on costs – as did the projected 2013 order for 85 F-35As for the Royal Netherlands Air Force which

became an actual order for 37. The impact of the US Air Force F-35A cuts will be minimised by reallocation of the slots to other air arms that could take near-term deliveries, such as Israel (and, as is likely, the Republic of Korea). Among international partners, 2014 is also likely to see initial orders from the Republic of Korea (60), Denmark (up to 30, with the decision to be made in 2015), Canada (up

to 63), Belgium (up to 40) and a second squadron (19) for Israel. The F-35 may even appear at the Farnborough Airshow for the first time in 2014.

but the impact of sequestration is likely to reduce the numbers to 35 or 36, seven and 13 respectively. Deliveries are scheduled for FY2014 and will involve F-35s ordered as LRIP Lot 6, comprising 18 F-35As for the US Air Force, six F-35Bs for the US Marine Corps, seven F-35Cs for the US Navy, three F-35As for Italy and two F-35As for Australia. Bigger cuts may follow, starting in 2015 – cutting a squadron’s worth for the US Air Force and causing a possible two-year F-35C procurement hiatus for the US Navy. Barring disasters, there appears to be little 1 indication that anyone will turn away from the F-35 programme in 2014. The US Air Force has identified the F-35, along with the KC-46A tanker (see KC-46 America’s Mobility Game Changer?, November p130-133) and the Long Range Strike-Bomber (LRS-B) programmes, as being its three top force recapitalisation priorities. And the navy, marine corps and the international partners remain committed to the programme. “There is zero indication that any US service will not buy a lot of these airplanes,” said Bogdan. A key indicator of the F-35 unit cost starting to fall is that, for the first time, the cost of Lot 7 airframes which (minus engine) are below the $100 million mark. The 35 aircraft being built in Lot 7 are not all complete yet, but the cost of those that are compared to a similar number of aircraft built in previous lots shows a lower per unit cost. “The expectation is airplane and engine price must come down,” said Bogdan. This 2 is consistent with the goal to reduce unit costs by 2019, but reductions in the numbers

Analysis Scheduled US F-35 orders for fiscal year (FY) 2014 were planned to be 40 F-35As for the US Air Force, eight F-35Bs for the US Marine Corps, and 14 F-35Cs for the US Navy, 3

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1 Production standard US Marine Corps F-35B BuNo 168313/‘VK13’, currently assigned to the 461st Flight Test Squadron at Edwards AFB, releases a GBU-12 Paveway II laser-guided bomb from the internal weapons bay against a fixed target located in a test range on October 29. 2 F-35A 07-0744/‘ED’ is marked with the number plate of the 461st Flight Test Squadron on its tail fins. The aircraft is seen over one of the Edwards AFB ranges during a test flight. 3 F-35B test aircraft BF-01 is cleared for short take-off from the deck of the USS Wasp (LHD-1) on August 20, 2013. BF-01 and its sister BF-05 deployed aboard the Wasp for the second phase of ship suitability sea trials, also known as developmental test phase two (DT-II).

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4 F-35B test aircraft BF-01 comes in for a vertical landing aboard the USS Wasp (LHD-1) on August 19, 2013 during DT-11. The second phase of ship suitability sea trials expanded the F-35B’s operational envelope around the ship in short take-off/vertical landing mode. 5 The US Navy welcomed its first F-35C production aircraft BuNo 168733/‘NJ101’ at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, on June 24, 2013. The aircraft is being used for F-35 pilot and maintainer training.

of F-35s ordered for the US services could

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4 undercut economies of scale and push

realisation of cheaper full rate production aircraft into the next decade. Other costs associated with the type’s concurrent development (system design and development is happening concurrently with engineering and manufacturing development) are also levelling out. The need to modify existing F-35s to bring them in line with a more advanced baseline configuration should require less work per airframe in the Fort Worth factory in 2014 and consequently cost less. Reflecting a levelling-out of earlier, and more recent, cost increases, in 2014 the JPO may ask the Department of Defense to revise downwards the estimated $1.1 trillion overall life-cycle cost for the entire F-35 programme made in 2010. The new, revised estimate is a cool $857 billion which includes $391.2 billion for the procurement of 2,443 F-35s for all three US services, the current programme of record. Next year may also see the continued turnaround of relations between the JPO and Lockheed Martin, which reached a nadir in 2012 – commenting on which Lt Gen Bogdan said: “Communication is an order of magnitude better than it was a year ago.”

Policy and Political Considerations

As the largest-ever military aircraft programme, designed from the outset to be international, that avoids duplication of effort and includes rigid work-shares, what happens to the F-35 in 2014 will inevitably be shaped by policy and political

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MILITARY F-35 LIGHTNING II considerations. In the US, the air force has demonstrated that, despite budget cuts and sequestration, it is willing to cut force structure, upgrades of current aircraft and capabilities to ensure it receives the F-35. The USAF considers the Lightning II as being crucial to 21st century manned airpower. Over the next 12 months, it will have to expend political capital to make these priorities stick as it faces the likelihood of cuts while the yet unproven F-35 absorbs more resources. The US Marine Corps – looking to the service life expiration of its oldest AV-8B Harrier IIs, F/A-18C and F/A-18D Hornets – is particularly anxious to make progress towards IOC and will carry out extensive training and development while further preparing MCAS Yuma in Arizona and MCAS Beaufort in South Carolina (which will be shared with British F-35s) for more squadrons of F-35Bs. None of the international partners is likely to walk away from the programme. Canada or, less likely, Denmark may possibly order an alternative fighter (upgraded F/A18Es for Canada or Saab JAS39 Gripens for Denmark). But the two countries will probably remain as partners in the programme even if they do not end up operating the F-35. The Republic of Korea’s

reluctance in 2013 to sign a contract for the Boeing F-15SE Silent Eagle fighter, even after it was considered the only proposal to meet its FX-III requirement, is an example of the powerful appeal of operating the F-35. Remaining aligned with the US – buying the same F-35s as are being delivered to the US services – is also a powerful argument for the type among current and potential international operators. “The F-35 blots out the sun,” said Dr Andrew Krepinevich, head of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, DC. This means, in the US as well as many partner nations, it is the only option for a new fighter, and the resources it has absorbed are going, in 2014, to preclude any others. In many ways the F-35’s development reflects decisions made more than a decade ago. It exemplified the impact on the research and development world of the US military (and its associated military industrial complex) and the over-confidence that, on the policy level, also contributed to the many setbacks in the long and frustrating conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. All of these took longer, cost more than anticipated and became politically unpopular. Both the military and the defence industry have learned from bitter experiences.

The first F-35C production aircraft BuNo 168733/‘NJ101’ at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, with its wings folded.

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Description The F-35 has a trapezoidal mid-wing configuration, optimised for stealth, along with twin tailfins and internal weapon bays. Its wing and tail plane leading edges are swept back at (approximately) 33°; trailing-edges are swept forward at 14°; its fins are swept back at approximately 42° and canted outward at the tips by approximately some 19°. And the twin, diverterless graphite/epoxy composite engine air intakes have no moving parts. These features show the extent to which stealth or LO (low observability) is at the core of the F-35 design. It incorporates the results of decades of US experience in material design and fabrication technologies and represents a considerable advancement over earlier stealth aircraft, most notably the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor. The F-35’s skin is more sustainable and its structure requires less maintenance than the F-22’s. The new aircraft also is designed to carry significant weapons loads in an internal bay while allowing for underwing carriage in less-contested battle spaces. Perhaps even more than stealth, the network capabilities of the F-35 are its key design feature. With access to multiple datalinks, the F-35 will be able to use inputs from other aircraft or terrestrial sensors

F-35 LIGHTNING II MILITARY to achieve the situational awareness vital to survival – and success – in air combat. Multiple F-35s can operate with their sensors linked together, sharing that improved situational awareness. One design feature that will feature in the F-35’s 2014 test schedule is the redesigned tail hook for the carrier-based F-35C version. This replaces an earlier version which proved inadequate in 2010-2011.

Current Status In 2014, the F-35 programme will remain in system design and development (SDD), concurrent with engineering and manufacturing development (EMD). This concurrent development may be affected by US budget sequestration. As the initial capabilities are being delivered from the SDD programme (which is scheduled to ramp down in FY2017 and finish a year later with the planned decision point on whether to enter full-rate production), capability planning for follow-on development (FoD) is under way. The USAF’s FY2014 budget request, submitted in the spring of 2013, included $4.2 billion to fund development plus the procurement of 19 LRIP Lot 8 aircraft. A total of 179 air force F-35As will have been procured by end of FY2014 and, as USAF production increases, F-35 acquisition

funding requirements will average $12.6 billion annually until 2037. Training will become increasingly important to meet the need for F-35 instructors to enable the first operational squadrons to be established. Developmental flying will continue, and by the end of 2014 some 54% of the required flight testing will be finished, including the complete F-35 flight envelope. Major test events expected in 2014 will include the completion of trials of the revised F-35C carrier tail hook with shipboard arrested landings. Testing will move beyond flight characteristics and focus on operational concerns – primarily weapons integration and their carriage throughout the flight envelope; and the F-35’s networkcentric capabilities. These have already included a five-ship flight linked with MADL (multifunction airborne data link), and more will follow over the next 12-months. Installation and testing of Block 2B software will run throughout 2014 and not be completed until 2015. Meanwhile the much more complex Block 3i software will enter flight test in 2014, enabling the interface with ALIS, intended to sustain the F-35’s networkcentric capability, to be validated. Under current plans ALIS will be fielded in by 2016. This may, however, prove problematic – in

September 2013 Lt Gen Bogdan said ALIS had “started too late” and so the programme was “now in catch-up mode”.

Overview The F-35 remains not only the most expensive, but the most controversial, military aircraft programme in history. The main issues for 2014 are progression of the flighttest programme, especially the software and its all-important validation, and how training will increase to meet the planned IOC. US Deputy Defense Secretary Dr Ashton Carter said the F-35’s future in 2014 depends more on the results of testing (and the allimportant software verification) than on the US defence budget. Other questions about the impact of the programme remain unanswered. With production likely to dominate not just the US Air Force but also partner nations’ air arms for decades to come, will there be sufficient resources for any other design team to continue with alternative designs? Despite the likelihood of economies of scale in procurement and a more mature production process, the F-35 at best will smooth out the curves of increasing costs and decreasing numbers that have cast a shadow over the future of manned combat aircraft for decades.

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W

hen aircrew selected engine start on their grey Bell 407 helicopter on October 31 they were about to fly an historic sortie – the maiden flight of the US Navy’s latest aircraft. They were not onboard the helicopter but inside a control station a short distance from the ramp at Naval Base Ventura County,

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Point Mugu in California. In fact their helicopter was a fully autonomous vertical take-off and landing tactical unmanned air vehicle system known as the MQ-8C Fire Scout. The crew comprised an air vehicle operator (AVO) and a mission payload operator (MPO) – their cockpit a control station (CS) equipped not with a cyclic stick, collective lever and anti-torque pedals but a keyboard and a mouse.

Endurance Upgrade The new Fire Scout is designated the MQ-8C, and in accordance with the navy’s aircraft requirements documentation is an

endurance upgrade of the existing Fire Scout system which comprises the MQ-8B air vehicle, the CS with tactical control system (TCS) software, various mission payload packages and associated control, handling and support equipment. The intention of the MQ-8C is to supply navy ships with UAS detachments, or UDets, capable of providing eight hours of continuous maritime ISR capability from a single platform. This is a mission currently flown by the MQ-8B variant in support of conventional and special operations forces specifically in the African Command area of operations.

MQ-8C FIRE SCOUT MILITARY Eventually the MQ-8C will provide unmanned aviation detachments (AvDets) aboard Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs) and composite AvDets that will deploy on an LCS with an MH-60R-equipped Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron. The ISR tasking is based on a two-air vehicle detachment performing orbits. One orbit comprises continuous coverage for 24 hours at a range of at least 150 nautical miles (275km) from the ship. Each individual MQ8C can remain on station at 150nm from the ship for eight hours. So what is the Fire Scout programme plan, to cease procurement of the B-model and

move up to the MQ-8C? Capt Patrick Smith, Tactical Multi-Mission Unmanned Aerial System programme manager with Naval Air Systems Command’s (NAVAIR’s) PMA-266 based at NAS Patuxent River, Maryland, explained: “In 2012 when the Department of the Navy decided to support an endurance upgrade, the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense and Congress were all notified that PMA-266 would defer an MQ-8B full-rate production decision until 2015. The pause in MQ-8B procurement allows the navy to procure 28 MQ-8Cs between FY 2012 and 2015. “We have procured 14 aircraft to date, two

of them, EMD-1 and EMD-2, are test aircraft; the other 12 are production-series aircraft currently undergoing modification.” Northrop Grumman is under contract with the US Navy for the rapid development of the MQ-8C and has 12 production series aircraft in various stages of modification. The first test aircraft, EMD-1, was delivered by truck from the company’s facility at Moss Point, Mississippi, to Point Mugu, arriving there on July 8. The flight testing, which began at Point Mugu on October 31, is being conducted by an integrated team made up of NAVAIR and Northrop Grumman personnel and Air

MQ-8C Fire Scout BuNo 168455/’VX’ takes off from Naval Base Ventura County, Point Mugu on the type’s maiden flight, when it reached an altitude of 500 feet. All images Northrop Grumman unless noted

AIR International’s Mark Ayton details the MQ-8C Fire Scout, the latest type to enter development testing with Naval Air Systems Command AI.01.14

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MILITARY MQ-8C FIRE SCOUT

MQ-8C FIRE SCOUT SPECIFICATIONS Length: 41ft 4in (12.60m) Width: 7ft 9in (2.40m) Blades folded hangar: 7ft 9in x 34ft 8in x 10ft 10in (2.40m x 10.60m x 3.30m) Height: 10ft 10in (3.30m) Rotor diameter: 35ft (10.70m) Zero fuel weight: 3,200lb (1,451kg) Gross take-off weight: 6,000lb (2,720kg) Engine: Rolls-Royce 250-C47B with FADEC PERFORMANCE Max speed: 135kts (250km/h) Operational ceiling: 17,000ft (5,181m) Range: 110nm (200km) with 12 hours on station Maximum endurance: 15 hours Maximum internal payload: 1,000lb (453kg) Payload internal: 1,000lb (272kg) giving 12 hours’ endurance Payload with sling load: 2,650lb (1,200kg)

1 The MQ-8C is capable of a variety of missions including vertical replenishment. 2 Fire Scout performs its ISR tasking over land and sea.

Test and Evaluation Squadron 30 (VX30) ‘Bloodhounds’, a resident unit at the Californian base. The new MQ-8C will eventually be deployed aboard the navy’s new LCS ships but until then MQ-8B Fire Scouts (see On the Perch, June p44-50) will start LCS deployments in 2014 as dictated by the LCS mission set. According to Northrop Grumman, the MQ8C Fire Scout will provide the navy with a 30% greater range, twice the endurance and an increased payload capacity compared to the existing MQ-8B variant. Unlike the Schweizer S333-based MQ-8B, the MQ-8C uses a Bell 407 airframe. So why was the Bell 407 chosen, who selected that model and for what objective? “Following an extensive selection process, Northrop Grumman chose the Bell 407 because of its proven reliability and ease of modification,” said George Vardoulakis, Northrop Grumman’s vice president for medium-range tactical systems. “It’s a very light aircraft with a significant level of composite structure, that lent itself to the addition of the larger fuel cell; and it had millions of flight hours with a great track record.” The larger fuel cell gives the MQ-8C

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400 gallons (1,500 litres) of additional fuel compared to a baseline Bell 407, and around 15 hours endurance – getting on for double the amount offered by the MQ-8B and close to three times the payload capability – and offers significant growth potential.

MQ-8C Conversion The basic Bell 407 aircraft is commercially produced at Mirabel in Quebec, Canada. Each one destined for MQ-8C conversion is delivered to the Bell facility in Ozark, Alabama, where all the hardware intended for manned operation is removed. The Ozark facility then installs a ‘bird cage’ (an additional structure) in the cargo bay to hold the self-sealing fuel cell and modifies the cabin and the cockpit for the avionics and wiring specific to the MQ-8C. Each air vehicle is then delivered by road to Northrop Grumman’s Moss Point facility in Pascagoula, Mississippi. This is where the autonomous systems are installed, including the flight management computer, routers, switches, the communications suite and the TCDL for the baseline payload – a FLIR Systems BRITE Star II electro-optical/ infrared (EO/IR) sensor and a laser range finder/target illuminator. BRITE Star II is also used by the MQ-8B.

Vardoulakis highlighted commonality between the two Fire Scout variants. “All the systems are the same. The MQ-8B and MQ8C fly on the same common software build with the required differences for controlling either of the two different types. Once the air vehicle [either a ’B or ’C model] is linked up, the software recognises which type it’s communicating with and applies the correct software.” Once engine runs and tests are completed, known as the acceptance test, the air vehicle is ready for delivery to the US Navy. As a footnote, a key risk reduction effort of the MQ-8C programme was the integration of a dual FADEC (full authority digital engine control) with the Rolls-Royce 250-C47B engine. Flight testing of the engine, FADEC, avionics and the sensor was completed on Northrop Grumman’s MQ-8C prototype at the Bell facility in Dallas-Fort Worth.

Operating the MQ-8C The Fire Scout system provides fully autonomous operation of the air vehicle and its payload, with the flexibility of having a wide variety of override commands available to the operators through the control station. Clarifying the location of the CS aboard a

1

MQ-8C FIRE SCOUT MILITARY ship, Vardoulakis told the author: “When the MQ-8C is embarked aboard a US Navy ship the control station is located within the combat information centre (CIC).” Fire Scout’s TCS encompasses the software developed for US Navy ships, tactical datalinks and a communications relay system. The CS also displays payload imagery, air vehicle status and situational information to the operators. Payload information can be disseminated via the C4I (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence) architecture to GCCS-M (global command and control system – maritime) and other C4I nodes. All data is available through the Fire Scout’s signal entry panel, including RS-170 video, fibre optics, ethernet, fibre optic ethernet and two data transfer protocols: asynchronous transfer mode and fibre distributed data interface. The AVO, MPO and a mission commander (MC) are all seated in the CS which is equipped with the navy’s TCS and TCDL. The crew can use the CS to undertake pre-mission planning for the air vehicle and payload and to upload new missions in real time and perform override control of both the air vehicle and its payload. Explaining the procedures involved with launching a Fire Scout from a flightline or the landing deck of a ship, Vardoulakis told the author: “Once the aircraft is parked on the landing spot and ready for launch, the plane captain clears the deck and gives the AVO a green light to start engines.” The MQ-8C’s engines are started simply by using a keyboard command. The two operators run through a series of checks on the air vehicle sending before the AVO sends 2

MQ-8C FIRE SCOUT SIX-VIEW DIAGRAM

the command to the aircraft to launch. “Crews usually fly a pre-programmed mission involving a series of waypoints but the routing can be reprogrammed to respond to a new tasking by the AVO using the keyboard and mouse,” explained Vardoulakis.

Future Development I asked George Vardoulakis if Northrop Grumman is doing any development work to widen the diversification of roles and systems that can be fitted to the air vehicle. “We’ve flown our own MQ-8C testbed fitted with the Northrop Grumman STARLite radar to demonstrate its maritime and GMTI [ground moving target indicator] modes. Raytheon’s AN/AAS-44 multi-spectral targeting system has also been carried to validate how the MQ8C can interchange payloads – a capability not possible on the MQ-8B.” Northrop Grumman is also working with Bell to certify a weaponised variant of the 407 capable of carrying all the weapons currently used by the US Army’s OH-58. Bell is undertaking that effort for its 407ARH which was launched at the 2013 Heli-Expo in Las Vegas. Northrop Grumman is marketing the MQ-8C to the US Army, the US Marine Corps and the US Coast Guard in an attempt to drive future sales. The company also proposed the MQ-8C Fire Scout, in partnership with the UK’s QinetiQ, for the Royal Navy’s RWUAS (rotary wing unmanned aerial system) programme. Alas,

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for Northrop Grumman, it was not selected for a planned flight demonstration from a Type 23 destroyer in UK waters during 2014.

Flight Testing PMA-266 completed engineering analysis and a preliminary design review of the MQ-8C in the 18 months between April 2012’s contract award to Northrop Grumman and the first flight. Other work in that period involved Northrop Grumman’s test team confirming the performance of MQ-8C systems by using its ‘hardware-in-the-loop’ test bench at Moss Point. “As a cost and time saving initiative, the test team is using a commercially developed aircraft with a commercially available engine to prove the MQ-8B systems all function correctly when integrated on the MQ-8C,” explained PMA-266 skipper Patrick Smith. “The first flight on October 31 included several events: getting the aircraft airborne, putting it into a hover and taking it to a perch point. Once the air vehicle satisfactorily hovered at the perch, we flew it to an initial approach fix and performed an autonomous recovery.”

1 2

3

One of the objectives for the test flight programme at Point Mugu is to verify performance characteristics of the larger 407 airframe against Northrop Grumman’s Fire X demonstrator programme. The test team is currently expanding the flight envelope, firstly up to 5,000 feet (1,524m) to ensure the air vehicle matches the data already held for the conventional 407 up to that altitude. This includes autonomous behaviour such as wave off, accepting control commands and making sure the normal flight characteristics of the helicopter are understood. In the second stage, the flight envelope will be increased up to 12,000 feet (3,657m), and further weight will be added to replicate having a near-full fuel state. This will be followed by testing launch and recovery procedures using the UCARS (unmanned aerial vehicle common automatic recovery system). The third and final stage will verify functionality of the different systems (EO/IR

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sensor, communications relay and full motion video) between the aircraft and the control station. This will be completed prior to a quick reaction assessment before the end of 2014. “We plan to remain at Point Mugu until then,” confirmed Capt Smith.

Preparing for the Burble Included in the flight test programme is an at-sea period aboard the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Dunham (DDG-109) at the end of the summer, the first time a Fire Scout (’B or ’C model) has deployed aboard this class of ship. This is likely to be a short, tenday embarkation in the Atlantic off the east coast to conduct dynamic interface testing of the air vehicle’s performance while launching and recovering from the ship and to assess how the air vehicle can be moved around the flight deck. In preparation, installation of the control station and associated systems aboard the

1 MQ-8C will undertake its maiden ship embarkation aboard the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Dunham (DDG-109) at the end of next summer. 2 MQ-8C BuNo 168455/’VX’ (c/n EMD-1) parked on the flight line at Point Mugu. 3 An MQ-8C is required to remain on station at 150 nautical miles from the ship for eight hours. 4 Mounted on the forward fuselage of the MQ-8C, FLIR Systems BRITE Star II Multi-Sensor Targeting Imager is the baseline payload for the new Fire Scout.

Dunham is already about 95%-complete. The air vehicle will be loaded aboard the destroyer pier-side to enable the team to begin system testing of the air vehicle to ship datalink and the interface of other ship emitters with the air vehicle before the Dunham gets under way. NAVAIR specifically requested a DDG-class ship to ensure the MQ-8C is capable of flying from that platform, although the navy has yet to decide if the class will be the first to deploy with the ’C model. The DDG is larger than the Oliver Perry Hazard-class frigates (FFGs) and their hangar spaces differ, so the Dunham detachment will enable the test team to confirm it can accommodate up to three MQ-8Cs. Another difference between the types of ship is the size of their flight decks – a DDG’s is slightly larger than an FFG’s. The test team will seek to gain a full understanding of how the ‘burble’ – the air interface over the deck as the ship moves

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4 MQ-8B, are exactly the same on the ’C model.

through the water – changes the launch and recovery of the aircraft. Electrical connections, placement of tools, handling equipment, and logistical aspects will also be confirmed during the period under way. The control systems, already proven with

But the Dunham uses a different antenna system for the TCDL which is designed for the Fire Scout and the MH-60R Sea Hawk. “This will be the first time we use the system for Fire Scout. It’s the same concept used by the LCS but is a physically different system,” explained Capt Smith. At Point Mugu, VX-30 is using both test aircraft (EMD-1, BuNo 168455, delivered on July 8, and EMD-2, delivered in November) to conduct on average two flights a day, depending on available range time. As of December 8, 18 flights had been conducted amounting to 24.8 flight hours. PMA-266 also intends to embark MQ-8C on an LCS, planning for which is already in hand. The navy fleet seeks to transition from using the MQ-8B for operational deployments to the MQ-8C in 2015. NAVAIR’s UAS programme office is also planning to add radar and weapons

capabilities to the MQ-8C by early 2017 to support deployments on LCSs. And what about the effect on the MQ8C of budget sequestration in FY 2013, as mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011, which removed $487 billion from the US defence budget over ten years? According to Capt Smith, “the Department of the Navy had to make adjustments that included the Fire Scout, but as we manage the situation going forward, we’re protecting the rapid deployment needs of the fleet”. At the end of our interview Capt Smith stressed the Fire Scout is a system, not just an aircraft, and said the current flight test programme seeks to prove not just that the air vehicle works but that it can integrate aboard the ship and complete the missions. One major accomplishment already achieved on the first flight was the use of the upgraded control station fitted with new software and hardware provided by Raytheon.

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Russia’s

Vision

2025 The Russian Air Force is planning a number of new aircraft acquisitions, reports Piotr Butowski

Russia’s fleet of Mi-28N Havoc attack helicopters will be upgraded by 2020. Piotr Butowski

A

t an aviation manufacturers’ convention in Moscow on April 19, 2013, Alexander Zelin, the former commander-in-chief of the Russian Air Force (RuAF) and currently an adviser to the defence minister, spoke about the air force’s policy for acquiring new aircraft and upgrading older ones up to 2025. His presentation included a slide showing a table divided into two parts. One referred to the Russian National Armament Programme (Gosudarstvennaya Programma Vooruzheniy, GPV), approved by the country’s President, Vladimir

RUSSIAN VISION 2025 MILITARY Putin, which specifies the development of Russian armed forces’ technology over a nine-year period. There is always an overlap in the GPV schedule – although the programme running up to 2020 is active, that for 2016-2025 is now being prepared. The other part of the table specified development programmes to be completed by 2020 or 2025. Some were highlighted in red, signifying the decision to go ahead with them has yet to be made. Some of Russia’s most interesting, and most expensive, prospective new aircraft

programmes were in this category – the PAK DA strategic bomber, the LMFS fifth-generation fighter, the PSSh future attack aircraft, the SVTS medium transport aircraft and the Ilyushin Il-112V light transport. Also marked in red was the Antonov An-70, jointly developed

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MILITARY RUSSIAN VISION 2025

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expensive, clean-sheet project and might therefore use an existing platform – but the most likely, the Tu-160, has been out of production for a long time and there are too few in service; which in any case already have other important tasks. More probable is that the MARK platform will be based on a heavy transport aircraft. Such projects existed in the 1970s and 1980s and indeed were even designated MARK, which stood for Mezhkontinentalnyi Aviatsionnyi Raketnyi Kompleks (Intercontinental Missile Air Complex). At the time there were plans to use the Antonov An-22 as the platform, 5 then the Antonov An-124 and later still a purpose-built Ilyushin Il-76MF with a

with Ukraine, the development of which has lagged for many years.

Long-range Bombers Strategic nuclear aviation remains a priority for Russia. Concept work to develop new bombers to replace the Tupolev Tu-160M Blackjack, Tu-95MSM Bear and Tu-22M3M Backfire is in progress with three new bombers planned – the PAK DA, MARK and PSZ. Notably there is no new medium bomber, a successor of the Tu-22M3 Backfire, in the plans. Despite the PAK DA being marked in red in Zelin’s table, the concept looks likely to gain the go-ahead and be included in the GPV programme for 2016-2025. One reason for this is the fact it’s received a work designation, izdeliye 80, which means its development has transitioned to a more advanced phase. Meanwhile, research and development for PAK DA under the code name Poslannik (Envoy) was approved by the RuAF earlier this year. The next stage of work, which would lead to the construction of the first prototype, is planned to be complete within five years. The intention is for PAK DA to start replacing the RuAF’s current long-range bombers by around 2025.

Mysterious MARK The abbreviation MARK appeared in one of Zelin’s slides in the bomber section. It wasn’t explained, but neither was it highlighted in red, which means it has been approved. So what could it be? The fact it has been approved indicates it is not an

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stretched fuselage. This last platform was to launch a RSM-54 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), weighing 45.6 tonnes, by a parachute system from the aircraft’s cargo hold, the missile’s engines being ignited after release. The new MARK is likely to use the new Il-76MD-90A transport aircraft as its platform – an advantage because, unlike the An-124, it is entirely manufactured in Russia, making the process of its development more straightforward.

PSZ Tanker One of the tasks the Il-76MD-90A will be used for is in the ‘PSZ’ role as a new long-range aerial tanker, for which it will be designated the Il-78M-90A. The first example is currently under construction and its maiden flight is scheduled for late 2014. Reportedly, a contract for 31 tankers is expected soon. New tankers are needed because the RuAF is currently only served by around 20 Il-78s and Il-78Ms, which are themselves set to be upgraded to Il-78M2 standard. The widebody Il-96-400 passenger aircraft built by the Voronezh plant is another option for PSZ. Three almost new Il-96-400T (transport) aircraft are currently standing idle with no buyers and the manufacturer is interested in selling them to the RuAF and converting them to Il-96-400SZ tankers. However, the acceptance of that offer is doubtful as introducing the type would mean the RuAF moving away from the wellknown Il-78 and the cost-effectiveness that operating one type of aircraft brings.

Transports The Il-76 will remain the mainstay of Russia’s military transport aviation for many years to

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come. Production of the upgraded Il-76MD90A version has started at the Ulyanovsk plant in Russia; all previous Il-76s were manufactured at Tashkent, Uzbekistan. The aircraft is powered by four modern PS90A-76 engines rated at 142.2kN (31,958lb) of thrust each (24.5kN/5,507lb more than the current D-30KP engines) and has new avionics as well as improvements to the structure, including a new 2.7-tonne single-piece wing. Currently, the factory is fulfilling an order from the Russian Ministry of Defence for 39 aircraft; in total, it expects an order to build 170-plus aircraft by 2025. A surprise in the reference to transport aircraft in Zelin’s table was the ‘red’ status of the SVTS (MTA) and An-70 aircraft – and equally the ‘approved’ status for the resumption of An-124 production in the An-124-300V variant. An-148 and Tu-214 passenger aircraft will be used as executive aircraft for high-level commanders with the Tu-214SUS operated as an airborne communications centre, for which purpose 4 future aircraft are likely to include a military variant of the MC-21 airliner.

Tactical Combat Aircraft The table entry concerning tactical aviation confirms what was already known: by 2020, the Russian Air Force will be receiving the fourth-generation Su-35S, Su-30SM and MiG-35S fighters. Deliveries of production PAK FA fifth-generation fighters will also begin, with 60 due to be delivered by 2020, with further deliveries after then. Meanwhile more Su-34 tactical bombers will be delivered by 2020, the type being fitted with specialist pods enabling it to be used in the tactical reconnaissance and electronic

1 More Su-35S Flanker-Es will be ordered for the RuAF between 2014 and 2021. All images Piotr Butowski unless noted 2 The Su-24M2 and Su-24MR Fencers will be replaced by the Su-34 Fullbacks. Andrey Zinchuk 3&4 Russia’s remaining fleet of Tu-160M Blackjack bombers will be upgraded by 2020. Richard Gennis 5 Russia’s combat aircraft fleet will be bolstered with more Su-30SM Flankers that are expected to enter service by 2021. Stanislav Bazhenov 6&7 Sixty Sukhoi T-50 PAK FAs should be in service with the RuAF by 2020. 8&9 The Su-34 Fullback fighter-bomber is already in service with the RuAF and more are on order for delivery between 2014 and 2021. Richard Gennis

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MILITARY RUSSIAN VISION 2025 warfare (EW) roles. Two new programmes in the table are PSSh and LMFS, but both are marked in red. A tender for the preliminary design of the PSSh attack aircraft has been won by Sukhoi with an upgrade of its Su-25UBM two-seat attack aircraft, manufactured at the Ulan-Ude plant. The future of this programme is, however, uncertain because, first, it is not known whether a specialised attack aircraft is necessary (in other countries such aircraft are being replaced by multirole fighters, attack helicopters and, in the future, unmanned combat aircraft); and, second, the Ulan Ude plant, which would manufacture the PSSh, is already burdened by production of Mi-8AMT/Mi-171 helicopters, for which demand is constant. The emergence of the LMFS fighter is possible if it were significantly cheaper than the PAK FA, but any cost-effectiveness is limited by the fact that it is an axiom in

Russia that fighters should be twin-engined, making them more expensive. It would be easier if a foreign partner and investor for the programme were found, but that would not be easy because Russia’s principal partners are already engaged in other projects: India is making the PMI fighter with the Russians, and China has its own plans. Another notable point in the table was that there is no successor to the MiG-31 heavy interceptor fighter.

Special Missions The most interesting group in Zelin’s table were aircraft for special missions, including airborne early warning and control (AEW&C), electronic warfare (EW), airborne command posts and radio-relay aircraft. Although there are many types in this group, each will be built in small numbers. The most important programme is the Beriev A-100 strategic AEW&C aircraft, designed to supplement and in future replace

1

2 1 There is no successor to the MiG-31 Foxhound heavy interceptor in the Russian Air Force policy for acquiring new aircraft. Andrey Zinchuk 2,3&4 Concept work to develop new bombers to replace Russian Air Force Tu-95MSM Bears and Tu-160M Blackjacks is in progress. Richard Gennis (2&4) Piotr Butowski (3).

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RUSSIAN VISION 2025 MILITARY converted from Il-86 airliners, are used for the purpose. The Zveno-3S aircraft was placed in Zelin’s table in the ‘purchases’ section, but it is likely that the existing Il-80s will be upgraded. For 2020-2025 another strategic command post, codenamed Foreytor-S, is planned, with a likely platform set to be the widebody Il-96300 or stretched Il-96-400. Il-96 aircraft are currently manufactured singly by the Voronezh plant. After 2020, another airborne command post, Yastreb, will be developed. In contrast to the strategic Zveno-3S and Foreytor-S, a smaller airliner will be used such as the Tu-214 or, more probably after 2020, the MC-21. The command post on the lowest, tactical level will be the Mi-8 VURT helicopter made under the Forvard-M programme. The Il-22PP Porubshchik is a conversion of old turboprop Il-22s into EW aircraft featuring the KNIRTI L-415 ECM system. Zelin’s table placed it in the ‘purchases’ section, despite

only conversions of old aircraft being possible. By 2020, purchases of the Mi-8PPR ECM helicopter are also planned (designated Mi8MTPR-1). In the training aircraft group a new abbreviation is UTK PNP, which relates to the Yak-152 piston-engined basic trainer. This aircraft, now more than ten years old, is currently being developed in China by Hongdu for use by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) as the Hongdu CJ-7. Now Yakovlev is adapting the design to take a new diesel engine and preparing for production at the Arsenyev plant for the RuAF.

Army Aviation Two new helicopters for the army’s air arm for the period up to 2020 have the abbreviations PSTDV and LMTsV. The first refers to the Mi383, a military variant of the heavy 15.6-tonne (34,391lb) Mi-38 helicopter – the only prototype of which has been in testing for ten years,

3

the current Beriev A-50 and A-50U. Purchases of the A-100 will be continued through the whole period until 2025. The A-100 will use the Il-76MD-90A (again illustrating the importance of the Il-76 family) and will be equipped with the entirely new Vega Premier radar system – which will feature rotating antennae with active electronic scanning in elevation and mechanical scanning in azimuth. Beriev will soon receive two new Il-76MD-90As, one of which will be converted into the A-100. Nothing official has been decided on the other Il-76MD-90A, though it may serve as a platform for the new A-90 electronic countermeasures aircraft or the airborne laser gun A-60M programme. Another new aircraft will be the Zveno-3S, a strategic airborne command post for the highest Russian authorities in the event of a war. Currently four Il-80 Maxdome aircraft,

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MILITARY RUSSIAN VISION 2025 encountering several problems including issues with its Klimov TV7-117 engines. The LMTsV is to be a new design weighing 4.5 tonnes (9,920lb). It may be a derivative of the Ansat helicopter or the new Mi-54 design. It is not clear why the table didn’t include the Ka-62 (see Kamov’s Six-Tonne Twin, p74), which is currently under development. The first Ka-62 was presented at MAKS 2013 in August. During the period 2020-2025, a new high-speed PSSTDV helicopter is going to 1 join these rotary aircraft: the military version of the Mi-37. The table also referred to a ‘fifthgeneration combat helicopter’, about which 2 nothing is known.

Priorities Notable by their absence in the table were the UAVs, despite their being regarded as crucial new equipment by the RuAF and the fact that three large types – the one-tonne (2,200lb) Inokhodets, five-tonne (11,023lb) Altius-M and 15-tonne (33,069lb) Okhotnik UCAV – are all under development. 1&2 There is no successor to either the Tu-22M3 Backfire (1) or the MiG-31 Foxhound (2). Andrey Zinchuk 3&4 The Il-76MD Candid will remain the mainstay of Russia’s transport aviation for many years to come. Richard Gennis (3) Sergy Aleksandrov (4) 5 The MiG-35D Fulcrum-F is one of three fourth-generation fighter aircraft that will enter Russian Air Force service between 2014 and 2021. Piotr Butowski 6 Yak-130 Mittens are already in Russian Air Force service at Lipetsk and Borisoglebsk. Stanislav Bazhenov 7 Only upgraded versions of the Tu-95 Bear will remain in RuAF service after 2021. Chris Lofting 8 A tender for the preliminary design of the PSSh attack aircraft has been won by Sukhoi with an upgrade of its two-seat Su-25UBM Frogfoot. Chris Lofting 9 The Su-35S Flanker-E will enter Russian Air Force service between 2014 and 2020. Piotr Butowski 10 UAVs remain a low-priority asset for the RuAF. OKB Sokol 3

4 5

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7

RUSSIA’S NEW AIRCRAFT PLANS 2013-2020

2021-2025

PSZ

PAK DA, PSZ, MARK

Long-range aircraft

Purchases Upgrade

Tu-160M, Tu-95MSM, Tu-22M3, Il-78M2

Tu-95MSM

Transport aircraft

Purchases

Il-76MD-90A, An-70, Il-112V, An-148

Il-76MD-90A, An-70, An-124-300V, Il-112V, SVTS, Tu-214, An-148, Tu-214SUS, SMS SUS

Upgrade

An-124-100, Il-76MD-M

An-124-100M, Il-76MD-M

Purchases

Su-34, Su-35S, MiG-35S, PAK FA, Su-30SM, PSSh

Su-34, PAK FA, PSSh, LMFS

Upgrade

Su-25SM, MiG-31BM

Su-34M

Special aircraft

Purchases

A-100, Forvard-M, Mi-8PPR, Il-22PP Porubshchik

A-100, Zveno-3S, Foreytor-S, Yastreb, Mi-8VURT Forvard-M

Upgrade

Il-22M-11, A-50U

-

Training aircraft

Purchases

Yak-130, Ansat-U, UTK PNP

Yak-130M, Ansat-U, UTK PNP

Helicopters

Purchases

Mi-26T (T2), Mi-28N (NM), Mi-35M, Ka-52, Ka-226, Mi8MTV-5-1(M), Mi-8MTPR-1, Mi-8AMTSh, LMTsV, PSTDV

Mi-28NM, Ka-52M, fifth-generation combat helicopter, PSSTDV, LMTsV

Upgrade

Mi-28N, Ka-52

Mi-28N, Ka-52

Tactical aircraft

LMFS – Lyogkiy Mnogofunktsionalnyi Samolyot or Lightweight Multifunciton Aircraft (RAC MiG project); LMTsV – Lyogkiy Mnogotselevoy Vertolyot or Lightweight Multirole Helicopter (new 4.5-tonne helicopter); MARK – Mezhkontinentalnyi Aviatsionnyi Raketnyi Kompleks or Intercontinental Missile Air Complex; PAK DA – Perspektivnyi Aviatsionnyi Kompleks Dalney Aviatsii or Future Air Complex of Long-Range Aviation (Tupolev ‘80’ Poslannik project); PAK FA – Perspektivnyi Aviatsionnyi Kompleks Frontovoy Aviatsii or Future Air Complex of Tactical Aviation (Sukhoi T-50); PSSh – Perspektivnyi Samolyot Shturmovik or Future Attack Aircraft (Sukhoi design); PSSTDV – Perspektivnyi Skorostnoy Sredniy Transportno-Desantnyi Vertolyot or Future High-Speed Medium Transport-Airlanding Helicopter (military derivative of Mi-37); PSTDV – Perspektivnyi Sredniy Transportno-Desantnyi Vertolyot or Future Medium Transport-Airlanding Helicopter (Mi-383, military derivative of Mi-38); PSZ – Perspektivnyi Samolyot Zapravshchik or Future Tanker Aircraft (Ilyushin Il-78M-90A); SMS SUS – Sredniy Magistralnyi Samolyot Samolyotnyi Uzel Svyazi or Medium Mainline Aircraft, Airborne Communication Centre (radio-relay version of the MC-21 airliner); SVTS – Sredniy Voenno-Transportnyi Samolyot or Medium Military Transport Aircraft (Indian-Russian MTA design); UTK PNP – Uchebno-Trenirovochnyi Kompleks Pervonachalnoi Podgotovki or Training Complex of Initial Training (Yakovlev Yak-152); VURT – Vertolyot Upravleniya i Retranslatsii or Control and Radio-Relay Helicopter (specialized version of the Mi-8MTV-5-1).

All these programmes are ranked by priority. Those with the lowest are launched only when extra money appears in the budget. The priorities are strategic forces as well as introducing new low-cost systems to existing platforms like the Su-30SM fighter. Since Soviet times military aircraft types given extensive upgrades usually gain the letter ‘M’ as part of their designation. In Zelin’s table, there were many such references, including the Su-34M, Ka-52M and Yak130M, which appeared in public for the first time. Russia’s vision, therefore, is to upgrade existing types, adding further capability, as well as producing new aircraft. 8 10 9

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The Generation Game Andrew Drwiega looks at the V-280, Bell’s concept third-generation tiltrotor

JOINT MULTI-ROLE FUTURE VERTICAL LIFT PROGRAMME

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Type

Weight

Possible No. of aircraft

Light

15,000lb (6,803kg)

400

Medium

50,000lb (22,679kg)

4,000

Heavy

80,000lb (36,287kg)

400

Ultra

200,000lb (90,718kg)

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BELL V-280 VALOR MILITARY he US Army wants new helicopters. Bell Helicopter believes it has the answer for some of the army’s requirements: a new, third-generation tiltrotor called the V-280 Valor – a V-22 Osprey on steroids. The US Army has in place a Joint Multi-Role (JMR)/Future Vertical Lift (FVL) programme, which envisages four sizes of future airlift: light, medium, heavy and ultra. The JMR technology demonstrator (TD) is a science and technology start-up to what will eventually lead to the FVL aircraft. In the medium class, the programme’s ambition is to replace up to 4,000 of the US Army’s medium helicopters – all the UH-60 Black Hawks and AH-64 Apaches – with one single rotorcraft that can fly faster, go further, take more payload and be more economical than anything that has been fielded to date. The new aircraft is to have an operational life of around 50 years. The target is to bring the FVL into service when the army’s current aircraft, which have been exposed to intensive use during Operation Iraqi Freedom and more recently Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan, reach the end of their service lives around 2030-2035. The value of the prize for the winning company? Up to $100 billion of orders. Once this ambition turns into hard reality, the winner could also see an international military customer market opening up as the forces of nations allied to the US strive to keep some measure of compatibility.

Launch

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All images Bell

The initial launch of the V-280 Valor in spring 2013 by John Garrison, Bell Helicopter’s president and chief executive officer, at the annual gathering of the Army Aviation Association of America (more commonly called Quad-A), was low-key – although not through any fault of Bell or a lack of interest

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MILITARY BELL V-280 VALOR from the media. The small attendance at the briefing (only this author and one other journalist were present, although others joined via live link) was largely due to the fact that US Army personnel had been prevented from attending Quad-A by the Department of Defense (DoD), which had just started to hammer down on any excess costs it could identify as a reaction to sequestration. So how did Bell decide on the name? Garrison quickly clarified this at the briefing: “The V-280 Valor stands for the following: v is for vertical take-off/landing, 280 for the aircraft’s cruise speed in knots and Valor is our tribute to our nation’s servicemen and women.” Rightly, Garrison said that tiltrotors are now combat proven – something that seems to be used by virtually all arms as the baseline for the credibility of new types in today’s procurement world. Indeed the US Marine Corps and, to a smaller extent, the US Air Force have now completed several operational tours with their MV-22B/CV-22 Ospreys in Afghanistan. There have been crashes and the aircraft have taken hits from ground fire, but then so have all other helicopters flying in that warzone. The point is that tiltrotors are now aircraft ‘of the line’ – they are accepted by the ground troops who use them as just another method of getting from A to B, so they don’t have to walk or face IEDs.

Beginning the Journey In June 2013 Bell was invited to enter contract negotiations for JMR-TD with the V-280 Valor. The actual first contract award was slated for public announcement by the end of 2013. It’s expected that two designs from competing companies will eventually be selected to go forward into demonstrator aircraft. The first flight is scheduled for 2017 (see JMR TD Milestones p107). Garrison said that wind tunnel tests on the V-280 have already begun. The JMR-TD will

focus on the development of the air vehicle, with the US Army then moving towards a decision on the mission systems for the FVL.

Category 1 Keith Flail, director of Bell Helicopter’s Future Vertical Lift programme, revealed that the US Army’s contracting division classified the V-280 as a ‘Category I’ proposal. He said this meant it was considered to be a “well conceived, scientifically or technically sound proposal pertinent to programme goals and objectives with applicability to army mission needs, and offered by a responsible contractor with the competent scientific and technical staff [and] supporting resources needed to ensure satisfactory programme results. Proposals (or portions thereof) in Category 1 are recommended for acceptance and funding.” Flail added that focal points for the development of the V-280 are to provide lowspeed agility, a hot and high hover capability, high-g manoeuvrability, fuel efficiency and extended range. All of these requirements need to come in an affordable package. Bell says that the V-280 is a clean sheet design, although the company has a long history in developing tiltrotors, with the

Osprey – jointly developed with Boeing – and the AB609, which was developed in partnership with AgustaWestland (AW) Although AW took full ownership of the AB609 programme in November 2011, with the aircraft being re-designated the AW609, Bell personnel still work on contract at AW’s facility at Arlington in Texas, from where the AW609 will be certified in 2016, according to the company.

Partnership On September 9, 2013, Bell announced its first V-280 programme tier one partner in the form of Lockheed Martin (LM), which will provide the Mission Equipment Package (MEP) for the aircraft. Garrison showed in his comments that Bell is intent on building a strong industrial team with deep understanding of its main customer, the DoD, and its requirements. He said that LM would bring “the highest levels of maturity and technical readiness required for future vertical lift missions”. This sentiment towards partnership seems to be one shared by those at LM. “We made the strategic decision to invest in a mission system and provide Bell Helicopter with this leap-ahead combat capability on the V-280 Valor,” said Dale Bennett, executive vice president, Lockheed Martin Mission Systems and Training. “The US Government and Lockheed Martin have created affordable yet highly-advanced mission equipment packages for numerous aircraft that can be leveraged to provide an affordable and effective solution for the future vertical lift programme.”

Cost Control

Above: Comparable mission

ranges flown at sea level for the proposed Bell V-280 Valor shown in blue and the UH-60 Black Hawk shown in green.

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Bell’s inability to keep costs down and the DoD on side with one of its previous new helicopter programmes for the US Army, the ARH-70 Arapaho Armed Reconnaissance Helicopter (based on the civil Bell 407/417), led to that programme’s termination in 2008. No doubt tight cost control is a factor in Garrison’s drive to build a team that can weather the ups and downs of what will be a lengthy and complex procurement process. The objective, to eventually produce an aircraft that can significantly and cost effectively outperform any existing medium military helicopter in terms of range and performance, does not lend itself to an offthe-shelf product.

Universal MEP Bell’s invitation to Lockheed Martin, one of the industry’s leading integrators of systems,

BELL V-280 VALOR MILITARY

to provide the MEP for the V-280 also ties in with LM’s announcement, on August 5, 2013, that it would offer a universal MEP for all US Army helicopters. According to Ed Whalen, Lockheed Martin Rotary Wing capture lead: “The US Department of Defense and Lockheed Martin have invested billions of dollars to create advanced technology mission equipment packages, such as that in the F-35 Lightning II. The JMR programme offers the opportunity for the US Army to leverage this investment and many others in its vertical lift programme, through open architectures and Lockheed Martin’s advanced avionics, sensors and weapons.” LM’s offer includes open architecture and future airborne capability environment (FACE) software design which the company says will allow for growth over time of the cockpit systems and the MEP.

Scalability Meanwhile, Bell’s representatives believe their tiltrotor technology is scalable and could address the other sectors in the FVL requirements beyond the medium category. The company already has experience of a small unmanned aerial vehicle in the shape of the Eagle Eye, which when added to its AW609 development and success with the Osprey, indicates that nothing seems to be

JMR TD MILESTONES Preliminary design and risk review 3Q FY14 Detail design and system risk review 2Q FY15 Pre-demonstration risk/test readiness review 2Q 2017 First flight 4Q 2017

off the company’s agenda at the moment. In early September 2013, Bell showed a full-scale V-280 mock-up at Fort Benning’s warfighter conference. This made its public debut in October at the Association of the US Army (AUSA)’S annual convention in Washington DC.

Performance Advantages So what will the V-280 offer? The main two points are what gives a tiltrotor its advantage over a helicopter: speed and range. Bell states that the V-280 will cruise at 280 knots (518km/h) and have a combat range of 500800 nautical miles (926-1,481km) depending on the load. At the V-280’s launch, Garrison emphasised its radius of operational capability compared to a UH-60, focusing on the Sea of Japan and East China Sea (in recognition of the US military’s so-called ‘pivot’ towards Asia-Pacific) as well as Afghanistan. He said that the aircraft could self-deploy up to 2,100 nautical miles (3,389km) from base, although aerial refuelling could further extend the range.

Simpler Bell says the V-280 will be less complex than previous tiltrotors. A major change is that only the nacelles and gearbox rotate, unlike the whole engine on the V-22. One benefit of this is that the hot engine exhaust is kept away from troops getting on and off the aircraft. Another advantage is that the position of the engine will allow maintainers easier access when the aircraft is on the ground. The choice of a V-tail ‘butterfly’, a design shared with Lockheed’s F-117 Nighthawk, should add to the aircraft’s stability as well as giving options for mounting antennas and aerials for systems on board.

Any battle damage should be mitigated through the ‘triple redundant’ fly-by-wire control system. Bell adds that the V-280 will be able to rapidly transition away from the ground, giving it less exposure time to ground fire. The promise of a low acoustic signature on approach (like the Osprey) should mean that enemy forces are only aware of the V-280 as it begins its transition to landing. Getting soldiers in and out of the aircraft quickly (up to 11 will be carried) has also been prioritised, with the provision of two 6ft (1.84m)-wide large side doors.

Challenger Perhaps Bell Helicopter’s biggest challenger for the JMR-Medium class contest will come from the Boeing-Sikorsky team which is focused on using Sikorsky’s X2 technology. That joint venture comes as Boeing is still in partnership with Bell on the Osprey, which is earning big money from the DoD for both organisations. It seems Boeing considers that having a foot in both camps is the best way forward. The V-22 could still be bought by the US Navy. Indeed, Bell-Boeing is pushing the navy to consider the Osprey for its future carrier onboard delivery aircraft, the successor to the C-2A Greyhound, and even the US Army has its own study under way into the V-22. There is foreign interest too, from Israel, Japan and the United Arab Emirates, although there’s been a glacial wait for the confirmation of the first foreign customer. An intriguing question in the future will be this: how will Boeing commit to making the V-22 a better aircraft for further block updates to support on-going and future sales, when the same research could work against it if Bell incorporates any technological advances from the Osprey into its V-280?

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All images AgustaWestland

TECHNOLOGY PROJECT ZERO

AgustaWestland is pushing the boundaries with its unmanned tiltrotor technology demonstrator. Mark Broadbent reports

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ith futuristic lines, the Agusta Westland (AW) Project Zero technology demonstrator is unquestionably one of the world’s most eye-catching aircraft. It’s also one of the most innovative, combining several technologies into a single aircraft. Project Zero – the name came from the recognition by AW that it started from scratch to create the aircraft – is a collaborative venture between AW engineers in Italy and the UK, and numerous partner companies worldwide. The unmanned aircraft was unveiled at Heli-Expo in Las Vegas in March 2013 but AW had worked on the project in complete secrecy for nearly three years before then.

Secret Development The company’s Advanced Concept Group in late 2010 formed a small team led by Dr James Wang, AgustaWestland VP of Research and Technology, to work on the aircraft. An intensive six-month design and development period followed, during which time computational fluid dynamics modelling techniques were used to finesse the aerodynamic performance of the aircraft’s

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unusual shape. The design work was followed by tests using scale models before the full-size aircraft was built. Tethered flights followed before the first untethered flight took place in June 2011 from AW’s Cascina Costa di Samarate facility in Lombardy, north-west of Milan. AW says flight trials took place in 2011 and 2012, though it hasn’t disclosed the exact number and nor has it said whether the aircraft has conducted any more more recently.

The Concept Project Zero is intended to investigate aerodynamic and technology concepts that can be used in future rotorcraft. It brings together various research projects that AW has been working on for several years. The company decided to bundle these into one aircraft (or ‘technology incubator’, as AW calls Project Zero) to get results more quickly and cost-effectively. Project Zero is a blended wing/body: the fuselage and wings are smoothly joined into one to provide lift during forward flight and reduce drag. The ducted fan engine arrangement, with two rotors mounted in cylindrical shrouds, allows efficient hover without excessive downwash. The ducts modify the rotor performance and, generate lift when they are at a slight angle in forward flight.

These tilt forwards and backwards, enabling the aircraft to transition from a hover to forward flight like a tiltrotor. Elevons provide the pitch and roll control and the V-tail gives directional stability. The outer edges of the wings are detachable, enabling the aircraft to operate either as a tilt rotor or conventional helicopter. The wingspan is 42ft (13m) and each rotor has a 9ft 9in (3m) diameter. AgustaWestland has made limited use of steel in Project Zero’s structure. Around 80% of the aircraft, including the fuselage skin, rotor blades, shrouds and spokes, are made from carbon fibre. The fuselage is a combination of carbon and aluminium and the rotor grips are titanium. All this makes the aircraft lightweight.

All Electric Project Zero is all-electric and is powered by batteries. The aircraft’s flight control systems, the nacelle tilting mechanism (which moves the rotors’ position) and the landing gear all use high-bandwith electrically-powered actuators. The rotor system uses individual blade control – there is no swashplate, as on conventional helicopters or tiltrotors, with each blade having its own electrical mechanical actuator that controls its pitch angle. This means there’s no complex and heavy hydraulicallypowered transmission system aboard, unlike

PROJECT ZERO TECHNOLOGY

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1 AgustaWestland’s all-electric Project Zero technology demonstrator inside its hangar at Cascina Costa di Samarate prior to its maiden flight. 2 The Project Zero technology demonstrator’s blended fuselage under construction at AgustaWestland’s Cascina Costa di Samarate facility.

those traditionally associated with rotorcraft, which further contributes to the aircraft’s lightness. Being electrically-powered, Project Zero’s motors don’t require oxygen, which enables the aircraft to operate at high altitudes. Between flights the rotor blades are tilted into wind; their wind-milling recharges the batteries. “Electric vehicles are convenient, green and very reliable. Electric motors have low maintenance and can operate without the need for oxygen,” said Dr Wang. The aircraft was also designed to accept different energy sources for its electric motors such as a hybrid diesel electric generator to permit longer endurance. “Using diesel-electric hybrid is a possible solution, where during take-off and landing and full manoeuvring flight, both the battery and diesel engine are used. During cruise, the diesel engine is used to charge the battery. The diesel engine will not drive the rotor directly, it’s used as a generator,” Dr Wang explained.

Team Effort Project Zero was a team effort between AW and 15 partner companies worldwide, each contributing their own specialisms and off-the-shelf products where applicable. This enabled the aircraft to move from the drawing board to flight within that short sixmonth timeframe. The aircraft’s aerodynamic profile was

designed by AW in conjunction with Stile Bertone, which specialises in the aerodynamic styling of supercars, while US firm Rotor Systems Research LLC helped design the rotor blades’ aerodynamic properties. Selex Galileo ES, a fellow Finmeccanica company, provided the navigation sensor unit and flight control computer. Wind River supplied its VxWorks 653 operating system to integrate the avionics. British industry had an important involvement besides AW’s UK-based engineers. Lola Composites, based in Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire, manufactured the composite fuselage skins for the aircraft. Lola is well known for designing and manufacturing motorsports composites, including those for Le Mans racing cars. Japanese firm UCHIDA manufactured the composite rotor blades, shrouds and spokes. Ansaldo Breda, which builds high-speed electric trains, produced the electric motor inverter and motor control algorithm, which enables the rotor blades to turn from the horizontal to the vertical. Oral Engineering machined the rotor-drive system, Lucchi R Elettromeccanica designed and built the electric motors, Microtecnica developed the actuators and Marc-Ingegno built the undercarriage after customising the gear from an existing ultralight.

Spin-offs Project Zero isn’t a product in itself. Nevertheless as a technology demonstrator, AgustaWestland says there are a number of spin-offs from the aircraft. Dr Wang told AIR International: “We’ve learned tremendously about electric propulsion and electric energy management. We’re also doing research on replacing a conventional mechanical tail rotor drive system with a direct drive electric motor. We’ve demonstrated individual blade control [and] one day, if needed, that could be used on helicopters or tiltrotors for flight control as well as vibration reduction, noise reduction and performance improvement.” Neither will the benefits be restricted to AW. Each company involved in the programme will also feed the lessons they each learned from Project Zero into their respective business sectors – for example motorsports for Lola, trains for Ansaldo Breda – so the lessons from the programme won’t just be restricted to tilt rotor aircraft technology.

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P1HH SPECIFICATIONS Wingspan: 15.60m (51ft 1in) Length: 14.40m (47ft 2in) Height: 3.90m (13ft 1in) Wing area: 18m2 (193.75ft2) Horizontal tail area: 3.8m2 (41.2ft2) Vertical tail area: 4.7m2 (50.9ft2) Forward wing area: 1.3m2 (13.9ft2) Maximum take-off weight: 6,146kg (13,550lb) Maximum speed: 395kts (731km/h) Cruise speed: 320kts (592km/h) Loiter speed: 135kts (250km/h)

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Max range: 4,400nm (8,148km) Endurance: 16 hours or 10.5 hours at 809nm (1,500km) from base

1 Artwork of the P1HH flying at altitude. Piaggio Aero 2 The P1HH HammerHead DEMO flight test aircraft taking off from Trapani, Sicily, on November 14. Piaggio Aero

Service ceiling: 45,000ft (13,716m)

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here’s no mistaking the P180 Avanti. The Italian executive transport’s sleek lines reflect its origins in a country renowned for stylish design. Now its manufacturer Piaggio Aero is working on its first unmanned version of the distinctive twin-pusher turboprop. The P1HH HammerHead is a medium-altitude longendurance (MALE)-class aircraft intended for military and civil intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. P1HH DEMO, the first flight test aircraft, took its maiden flight on November 14 at the Aeronautica Militare Italiana’s (Italian Air Force) Trapani base in Sicily. This aircraft was piloted remotely from its ground control station during a 12-minute flight in controlled airspace over the nearby Mediterranean Sea. The flight tested the P1HH’s navigation system and “verified its manoeuvring capabilities in both manual and automatic flight modes”, said Piaggio Aero. The aircraft performed the flight in mid-flap and reached an altitude of 2,000ft (609m) and a speed of 170kts (314km/h). The P1HH DEMO had undertaken a short ‘hop’ previously on August 8, 2013, when it took off and sustained level flight for a few seconds before landing – an event disclosed by Piaggio Aero after the November test. These milestones followed engine and taxi tests during 2013, using a non-airworthy ‘proof-of-concept’ vehicle, at the AMI’s Decimomannu base in Sardinia. In October this vehicle was airlifted by an Italian Army Chinook from Decimomannu onto the deck of an undisclosed Italian Navy ship, which

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transported it 300nm (555km) to Trapani to join the P1HH DEMO aircraft.

Diversification Piaggio Aero’s move into unmanned aircraft is a significant step away from the Genoa-based company’s core activities of the last 20 years: producing the Avanti for the business aviation market and engine components for RollsRoyce and Pratt & Whitney. Despite more than 220 Avantis being sold – a respectable number in the type’s size class – sales have slumped in recent years due to the effects of the global financial crisis on business aviation. The downturn prompted Piaggio Aero to announce in 2011 that it would diversify by developing new versions of the Avanti to become “a prominent player in the surveillance and security sector”. In 2012 it launched a Multirole Patrol Aircraft version of the Avanti (see Avanti MPA, September 2012, p36) designed to fulfil a variety of land, coastal, maritime and offshore security missions. The HammerHead was the next move. After two years developing it in secret, Piaggio Aero announced the aircraft to the public in spring 2013 and displayed a mock-up at June’s Paris Air Show. The company’s chief executive Alberto Galassi said, in a recent industry media interview, that the P1HH’s development was also “driven by a strategic decision by the United Arab Emirates” for a MALE UAS. Mubadala, the Abu Dhabi government’s investment company, is a 41% shareholder in Piaggio Aero (the other shareholders are India’s Tata Group with 44.5%, HDI with 12.5% and Piero Ferrari with 2%).

The Aircraft Although the HammerHead looks similar to the Avanti – it has the distinctive anhedral forward

wings, hence the name – there are several important design differences. The P1HH has a wider wingspan, with a higher aspect ratio and increased surface area. It sits higher on the ground, its 6,146kg (13,550lb) maximum takeoff weight is greater than the Avanti’s 5,489kg (12,100lb) and its two 950shp (712Kw) Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6-66B turboprops, fitted with five-bladed Hartzell propellers to minimise noise, are more powerful than the Avanti’s 850shp (634kW) PT6-66As. The HammerHead will be able to carry electronic, signals and communications intelligence payloads (on two external and three internal hard-points) and engage in electronic warfare. And it’s not just being designed solely with military requirements in mind: as with the MPA, Piaggio Aero is also targeting civilian organisations with maritime, coastal/border control, disaster response, anti-terrorist and environmental survey requirements.

Speedy Performer The P1HH is designed to replicate the Avanti’s speedy performance. Its 395kts (731km/h) maximum speed will be faster than the 240kts (444km/h) top speed (according to US Air Force information) of the most numerous MALE UAS, the General Atomics Predator B. The HammerHead will cruise at 320kts (592km/h), faster than the Predator’s 199kts (368km/h) and its 4,400nm (8,148km) range will exceed the Predator’s 1,150nm (2,129km). General Atomics says the Predator has 27-hour endurance, while the USAF says the aircraft can carry a 3,750lb (1,701kg) payload. Both these figures beat the numbers announced for the HammerHead, which will have 16-hour endurance and carry a 2,000lb (909kg) payload. However, Piaggio Aero says

PIAGGIO P1HH HAMMERHEAD TECHNOLOGY

Mark Broadbent looks at the P1HH HammerHead, Piaggio Aero’s first unmanned aircraft Markets

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its aircraft’s speed and range will place it “at the very top end of the MALE category”. The company also points out that the aircraft will be able to make a high-speed ‘dash’ to the area of operations and provide customers with “an unmatched combination of range, wide operative speeds, fast climb gradient, high operative ceiling and variety of payloads”.

Proven Platform Developing the HammerHead from an existing aircraft is another part of its business case. Piaggio Aero claims the Avanti’s “uneventful service record of more than 20 years and 800,000 flight hours, proven architecture and technologies [and] operational reliability” makes the P1HH low-risk aircraft to develop and operate. The company adds that the P1HH’s removable wings allow deployment within 24 hours and the aircraft’s control and automatic take-off and landing systems will be compliant with NATO’s Standardization Agreement 4671, covering the airworthiness standards of UAS weighing above 150kg (330lb).

Mission System Selex ES, part of Italian group Finmeccanica, is supplying the HammerHead’s vehicle

management and control systems (including ground control), air data terminal and mission systems. The company worked alongside Piaggio Aero staff during the P1HH DEMO’s November flight. The HammerHead’s mission system is based on Selex’s skyISTAR technology. “The skyISTAR system will manage the HammerHead’s sensors, video, data, communications and ISR functions and be capable of recording video and mission data,” explained Piaggio Aero. Integrated within skyISTAR will be the FLIR Systems StarSafire 380HD forward-looking infrared/electro-optical imagine system and the Seaspray 7300 radar. The skyISTAR system will have an open architecture, allowing P1HH operators to tailor sensors according to their specific needs. Selex ES says such customisation is important because it believes that UAS “will need a flexible multi-role capability” to conduct a variety of missions in different environments. Piaggio Aero claims skyISTAR “redefines the concept of patrolling and ISR missions” through using “sensor fusion technology, data management and exploitation features”. This, it says, will give the HammerHead the flexibility to be used for a range of ISR roles.

Piaggio Aero’s HammerHead sales pitch is that the aircraft has a unique place in the mediumaltitude long-endurance market thanks to the system’s customisation, cost-effectiveness (because it meets regulations and is derived from an existing aircraft) and the Avanti’s proven performance. The company hopes it will appeal to armed forces that want MALE ISR capabilities, but are facing budgetary pressures. It has not been disclosed whether Piaggio Aero has received any orders for the aircraft, although when the P1HH was displayed at Paris in 2013 the AMI’s Secretary General of Defence, Lt Gen Claudio Debertolis, indicated Italy could purchase around ten examples of the aircraft. Italy’s wanted unmanned MALE capabilities for some time – in 2008 and 2009 it submitted foreign military sale requests to the US Government for the Predator B but a deal has not been agreed. The HammerHead, therefore, presents an opportunity for Italy to develop an indigenous MALE capability. “It will give us the possibility to increase our capability in ISR, especially when we are facing, in the Mediterranean, illegal immigration from North Africa,” said Lt Gen Pasquale Preziosa, chief of staff of the Italian Air Force, at the Dubai Air Chief Conference Beyond Italy, Piaggio Aero forecasts a market for 190 units across NATO countries and emerging regions. Chief executive Galassi, said: “plenty of NATO countries are interested” in the HammerHead. The P1HH’s flight trials will advance during 2014. Piaggio says the HammerHead will achieve “operational readiness” and certification by the end of the year and enter into service in 2015.

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TECHNOLOGY LYNX ROCKETPLANE

Nick Spall finds out about American company XCOR’s space tourism plans with its Lynx sub-orbital aircraft

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few years ago the idea of an ordinary civilian rather than an astronaut climbing into a small spacecraft, taking off from a runway, accelerating to Mach 3 and then spending four minutes floating in space 62 miles (100km) above the earth would have seemed unachievable in our lifetime. But we are now only a few months away

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from California-based XCOR Aerospace test flying its two-seat Lynx, a small but versatile craft capable of reaching sub-orbital space. The company plans to begin regular space tourism flights with the Lynx in 2015 – with passengers paying $95,000 (£60,000) for the privilege.

Lynx flight profile For the generation fascinated by the idea of easy space travel through TV shows of the 1950s and 1960s such as Supercar and Thunderbirds and the Dan Dare comic strip – where the eponymous hero flew his

two-seat ‘Anastasia’ spacecraft – XCOR’s Lynx concept looks set to turn decadesold dreams of straightforward access to space, where a craft takes off from an ordinary runway and climbs up through the atmosphere, into reality. In the 32.8ft-long (10m) Lynx, a horizontal take-off, horizontal-landing (HTHL) spaceplane, the pilot and passenger will don commerciallyavailable launch and entry spacesuits (LESs). The Lynx will be towed out to the end of a 7,900ft (2,400m) runway, where the pilot will engage the four

LYNX ROCKETPLANE TECHNOLOGY 2,900lb (13kN) XR-5K18 liquid oxygen (LOX) engines. After take-off it will be put into an 80° climb. The engines will burn for three minutes, taking the Lynx to a maximum velocity of Mach 2.9, before being switched off when it reaches 190,000ft (57,912m). The spacecraft will then coast upwards in the increasingly thin atmosphere until it reaches the ‘Karman Line’, the Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI)recognised boundary 328,000ft (99,974m) above the earth where our atmosphere ends and outer space begins. At this altitude, there’s no air outside the Lynx and the pilot and passenger will experience four minutes of ‘zero-g’ weightlessness as they fly in sub-orbit with untethered items such as cameras floating around them. The space tourist will have an extraordinary view, with blackness above and the curvature of the earth clearly visible on the horizon During this phase of the flight, the Lynx will slowly rotate under its non-hydrazine reaction control system (RCS) thrusters, which provide altitude control. All too soon, the re-entry phase will begin and the craft will glide down through the atmosphere in spirals. The pilot and passenger will experience four times the force of gravity (4g) during their descent before the Lynx lands back on the runway from where it departed

30 to 40 minutes earlier. The Lynx’s occupants have now been into sub-orbital space, albeit at a fraction of the 124 miles (200km) that orbital altitudes spacecraft such as the now-retired NASA Space Shuttle or the Soyuz and Shezhou capsules operate at – to get to these heights, spacecraft need to be accelerated by very powerful rockets to Mach 25, or 18,000mph (28,968km/h). The Lynx’s pilot and passenger are however still astronauts, achieving the same sub-orbit as NASA’s first astronaut Alan Shepard did in his Mercury capsule in 1961.

Development

Space race?

The idea of a self-powered rocketplane achieving great heights and speeds is not new. As far back as the late 1950s British company Saunders-Roe developed the SR.53, a single-seat jet/rocket-powered interceptor that could achieve a speed of Mach 2.35 and an altitude of 67,000ft (20,421m). Rocket-powered reusable aircraft, rather than capsules, capable of spaceflight were restricted to the NASA X-15 test aircraft until the arrival in 1981 of the Space Shuttle, although of course that relied on disposable rockets to lift it into orbit. It was not until 2004, when the Burt Rutandesigned Scaled Composites SpaceShipTwo won the Ansari X Prize for repeated suborbital flights, that focus was placed on reusable spaceplanes being utilised for access to space. Around this time, at his Mojave, California, base, XCOR Aerospace founder and Chief Executive, engineer Jeff Greason, began developing the single-seat EZ-Rocket derivatives of Burt Rutan’s Long-Ez light aircraft for the Rocket Racing League in the US. The work on this project to create safe rocket engine operations, piston pump development and the integration of airframe, avionics and engine eventually led XCOR to develop the Lynx. The company originally planned to fly the Lynx in 2008 but developing a safe and reliable rocket and airframe/hull combination

The first test flight of the Lynx is set for later in 2013, extensive testing of the XR-5K18 engine having been carried out since 2008. Its flight testing will occur at the same time as Virgin Galactic continues testing SpaceShipTwo, which has already been flown to 60,000ft (18,288m) at Mach 1.5. So is there an unofficial ‘race’ between XCOR and Virgin Galactic to see which can be the first to fly space tourists? XCOR’s Chief Operating Officer and VicePresident of Business Development, Andrew Nelson, says not. “No, we don’t view it quite like that,” he told AIR International. “We intend to take a cautious and safetyconscious step-by-step approach, gradually flying higher and longer flights from our Mojave airfield, and there is certainly no ‘race’ as such. We are admittedly now closer to Virgin Galactic in timing than we originally thought we would be; the two craft achieve similar things but in a different way.” The Lynx is to be developed in three stages. The first prototype, the Lynx Mk1, will fly to 200,000ft (60,960m) to test onboard systems. The Mk2, being developed in parallel, will start test flights in 2014. It will use the same engines and systems as the Mk1 but will be lighter. XCOR intends that the Mk2 will also be capable of carrying up to 264lb (120kg) of scientific equipment inside the cabin, enabling the craft to be used for

takes time and testing. The aircraft doesn’t rely on a mother-ship carrying it to altitude, unlike Virgin Galactic’s eightseater SpaceShipTwo – which requires the WhiteKnightTwo aircraft to carry it to 60,000ft (18,288m) before release and a rocketpowered climb to sub-orbit. XCOR has designed the Lynx to be lowcost and reusable. It’s designed to operate four times a day, with two-hour turnaround times, and undertake up to 40 flights before extensive maintenance is required. It is also designed to operate under conventional visual flight rules (VFR).

low-cost scientific research launches as well as flying space tourists. A third version, the Mk3, will be introduced in 2015 and will include a dorsal cargo container, space telescope and a small twostage micro-satellite launcher – a capability currently of interest to the US Department of Defense for launching a fleet of small surveillance satellites, operating together as a ‘swarm’, cheaply and at short notice.

Astronaut-tourists The drama of the flight is a key part of the appeal to many of XCOR’s fare-paying

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TECHNOLOGY LYNX ROCKETPLANE sounding rockets [currently used to obtain measurements in sub-orbit] but cheaper [because it is] human-operated during the flights. If they don’t work out the scientist can make equipment adjustments and fly later that same day.” There’s another role for which the Lynx may be used in the longer term: astronaut training. With the LES suits and 4g on re-entry, the Lynx will give a realistic experience of the conditions astronauts experience during spaceflight. This product will sit alongside other spaceflight training experiences offered by XCOR including an altitude chamber facility on the ground and training in anti-g straining techniques using a Pitts Special aerobatic biplane and an Aero L-39 Albatros jet. “XCOR and Isle of Man-based Excalibur Almaz have recently signed a joint suborbital training agreement, where they intend to use Lynx flights as initial training for the orbital experiences they intend to launch.”

Challenges

customers, Nelson says. “We actually call our customers ‘participants’ [rather than tourists] based on the legal definition here in the US. They will be weightless in sub-orbit, but in fact they won’t float around for a minute in the cabin as they will stay strapped in. The front window view of the earth 62 miles below is going to be superb as it is much bigger than a simple porthole, and the three to four minutes of zero-g is quite noticeable anyway, even sitting in a seat. This is a personal astronaut experience that may be tailored for the individual. Remember that our pilot and participant will be wearing an LES – a ‘David Clark’ or ‘Orbital Outfitters’ version – plus we have parachutes, so taking off harnesses for the zero-g portion is not really worthwhile.” Flight safety is naturally a matter of paramount concern for XCOR, which says passengers are being equipped with the LES in the event of emergencies such as a sudden cabin depressurisation. There is also a seat-raising system if a bale-out was required. Nelson explains: “Safety is the prime consideration and this is part of the ‘astronaut experience’ for the participant. But like any developing aircraft, as testing progresses, safety always improves. The [US regulator] Federal Aviation Administration will give a licence to fly Lynx with the customer, based on our own judgement regarding the LES and parachute approach need.”

Testing What of the testing requirements for such a revolutionary route to spaceflight? Reflecting the technical challenges and regulatory hurdles to make Lynx flight operations possible, the test flying sequence will be an extensive and timeconsuming building-block process. Andrew

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Nelson explained: “The approach is a classic aircraft-testing envelope expansion programme. This starts from tie-down engine tests; slow then fast taxi moves; then a first up and around the airfield flight, maybe lighting up two of the four engines; then increasing height and speed to Mach 3 or 4 with the four engines and then going for very high altitudes.” Testing and initial operations will be carried out from XCOR’s Mojave home. Although this will be retained, the company is also developing a new research and development facility at Midland, Texas. In 2014 it plans to open a base in Florida to operate revenue-earning tourism flights as part of the state’s ‘Space Coast’. Manufacturing of Lynx vehicles may also take place in Florida. Meanwhile, the Space Expedition Corporation (SXC), currently operating from Amsterdam in the Netherlands, is leading XCOR’s sales activities across the world.

Observing planets Aside from the tourism flights, what might the Lynx be used for in its secondary role of putting scientific research equipment into sub-orbit? The Tucson, Arizonabased Planetary Science Institute has an agreement with XCOR for the Lynx to place infrared telescopes into orbit to contribute to its observation activities. Andrew Nelson explained: “Astronomy and microgravity research is an important aspect of XCOR’s work. We will have an adapted version of Lynx 2 for this, with a dorsal mounted pod attached. The Planetary Science Institute and others will be able to use the 100km heights and three to four minutes of zero-g for a wide range of experiments and astronomy projects. This is just like the

One of the major technical hurdles for XCOR in developing the Lynx was saving weight while simultaneously ensuring the spacecraft has the strength to withstand the forces of re-entry. Its airframe will be all-composite, which saves weight but maximises strength, and will feature a thermal protection system (TPS) on the nose and leading edges to handle the heat from re-entry. The challenge involved in developing the TPNS recently led XCOR to approach the Aerospace Structures Division of aerospace company ATK to design and manufacture the composite wings and control surfaces for the Lynx. Another big challenge currently being worked on by XCOR is reliability of the aluminium rocket nozzle. This must cope with very high temperatures with no degradation of the material properties of the alloys to allow repeatable firings of the rockets and full reusability of the vehicle. If XCOR can achieve the operational requirements anticipated for commercial success, safety and reliability, it will be a major step forward in affordable personal spaceflight and will bring those old TV show and comic book visions of science fiction closer to fact.

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